Opinion Poll by Spinter tyrimai for Delfi, 19–30 November 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai 22.6% 26.0% 24.2–27.8% 23.8–28.3% 23.4–28.8% 22.6–29.6%
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga 22.4% 22.0% 20.4–23.8% 20.0–24.2% 19.6–24.7% 18.8–25.5%
Partija tvarka ir teisingumas 7.8% 11.0% 9.8–12.3% 9.4–12.7% 9.2–13.0% 8.6–13.7%
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija 15.0% 11.0% 9.8–12.3% 9.4–12.7% 9.2–13.0% 8.6–13.7%
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija 5.7% 7.0% 6.1–8.2% 5.8–8.5% 5.6–8.8% 5.2–9.3%
Darbo Partija 4.9% 6.0% 5.2–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.7% 4.3–8.2%
Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“ 0.0% 5.0% 4.3–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.6% 3.5–7.1%
Liberalų Sąjūdis 9.4% 4.0% 3.4–5.0% 3.2–5.2% 3.0–5.5% 2.7–5.9%
Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija 0.0% 4.0% 3.4–5.0% 3.2–5.2% 3.0–5.5% 2.7–5.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai 31 21 19–23 19–23 19–23 18–25
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga 54 18 16–19 16–20 16–20 15–21
Partija tvarka ir teisingumas 8 9 8–10 8–11 7–11 7–11
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija 17 9 8–10 8–10 7–11 7–11
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija 8 6 5–7 5–7 4–7 4–8
Darbo Partija 2 5 4–6 0–6 0–6 0–7
Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“ 0 4 0–5 0–5 0–5 0–6
Liberalų Sąjūdis 14 0 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5
Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija 0 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–5

Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.4% 100%  
18 2% 99.6%  
19 15% 98%  
20 18% 82%  
21 26% 64% Median
22 21% 38%  
23 15% 17%  
24 2% 2%  
25 0.7% 0.8%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.3% 100%  
15 2% 99.7%  
16 14% 98%  
17 25% 84%  
18 36% 59% Median
19 15% 24%  
20 6% 8%  
21 2% 2%  
22 0.2% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0% Last Result

Partija tvarka ir teisingumas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partija tvarka ir teisingumas page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 3% 99.9%  
8 30% 97% Last Result
9 35% 66% Median
10 24% 31%  
11 6% 7%  
12 0.3% 0.3%  
13 0% 0%  

Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.2% 100%  
7 4% 99.8%  
8 29% 96%  
9 43% 67% Median
10 19% 24%  
11 5% 5%  
12 0.3% 0.3%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0% Last Result

Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 0% 99.8%  
2 0% 99.8%  
3 0% 99.8%  
4 2% 99.8%  
5 34% 97%  
6 52% 64% Median
7 10% 12%  
8 1.3% 1.3% Last Result
9 0% 0%  

Darbo Partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Darbo Partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 7% 100%  
1 0% 93%  
2 0% 93% Last Result
3 0% 93%  
4 18% 93%  
5 56% 74% Median
6 17% 18%  
7 1.2% 1.3%  
8 0% 0%  

Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“ page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 49% 100% Last Result
1 0% 51%  
2 0% 51%  
3 0% 51%  
4 37% 51% Median
5 13% 14%  
6 0.7% 0.7%  
7 0% 0%  

Liberalų Sąjūdis

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalų Sąjūdis page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 89% 100% Median
1 0% 11%  
2 0% 11%  
3 0% 11%  
4 10% 11%  
5 0.8% 0.8%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 93% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 7%  
2 0% 7%  
3 0% 7%  
4 6% 7%  
5 1.0% 1.0%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga – Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija 71 27 0% 24–29 24–29 24–30 23–31

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga – Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.3% 100%  
23 1.2% 99.7%  
24 9% 98.5%  
25 11% 90%  
26 19% 79%  
27 35% 60% Median
28 13% 25%  
29 8% 11%  
30 2% 3%  
31 1.1% 1.3%  
32 0.2% 0.2%  
33 0% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations