Opinion Poll by Vilmorus for Lietuvos rytas, 9 December 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai 22.6% 28.6% 26.8–30.4% 26.3–31.0% 25.9–31.4% 25.1–32.3%
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga 22.4% 23.1% 21.5–24.8% 21.0–25.3% 20.6–25.8% 19.8–26.6%
Darbo Partija 4.9% 10.8% 9.6–12.1% 9.3–12.5% 9.0–12.8% 8.5–13.5%
Partija tvarka ir teisingumas 7.8% 10.3% 9.1–11.6% 8.8–12.0% 8.6–12.3% 8.0–13.0%
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija 15.0% 8.9% 7.8–10.2% 7.6–10.5% 7.3–10.8% 6.8–11.4%
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija 5.7% 3.9% 3.2–4.8% 3.0–5.1% 2.9–5.3% 2.6–5.8%
Liberalų Sąjūdis 9.4% 3.7% 3.1–4.6% 2.9–4.8% 2.7–5.1% 2.4–5.5%
Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija 0.0% 3.7% 3.1–4.6% 2.9–4.8% 2.7–5.1% 2.4–5.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai 31 24 23–26 22–26 22–27 21–27
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga 54 20 18–21 18–21 17–22 17–23
Darbo Partija 2 9 8–10 8–11 8–11 7–11
Partija tvarka ir teisingumas 8 9 8–10 7–10 7–10 7–11
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija 17 8 7–9 6–9 6–9 6–10
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija 8 0 0 0 0–4 0–5
Liberalų Sąjūdis 14 0 0 0 0 0–5
Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija 0 0 0 0 0–4 0–4

Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.2% 100%  
21 1.2% 99.8%  
22 5% 98.7%  
23 23% 94%  
24 30% 71% Median
25 24% 41%  
26 14% 17%  
27 2% 3%  
28 0.4% 0.4%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.3% 100%  
17 3% 99.7%  
18 13% 97%  
19 29% 84%  
20 32% 55% Median
21 19% 23%  
22 4% 5%  
23 0.6% 0.6%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0% Last Result

Darbo Partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Darbo Partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 2% 100%  
8 17% 98%  
9 42% 81% Median
10 34% 39%  
11 5% 5%  
12 0.4% 0.5%  
13 0% 0%  

Partija tvarka ir teisingumas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partija tvarka ir teisingumas page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 5% 99.9%  
8 31% 94% Last Result
9 45% 63% Median
10 16% 19%  
11 2% 2%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 6% 99.9%  
7 34% 94%  
8 45% 60% Median
9 13% 15%  
10 1.0% 1.1%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0% Last Result

Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 95% 100% Median
1 0% 5%  
2 0% 5%  
3 0% 5%  
4 4% 5%  
5 1.3% 1.3%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Liberalų Sąjūdis

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalų Sąjūdis page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Median
1 0% 2%  
2 0% 2%  
3 0% 2%  
4 1.1% 2%  
5 0.6% 0.6%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 3%  
2 0% 3%  
3 0% 3%  
4 2% 3%  
5 0.5% 0.5%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga – Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija 71 27 0% 26–29 25–29 25–30 24–31

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga – Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.3% 100%  
24 2% 99.7%  
25 6% 98%  
26 18% 92%  
27 28% 75%  
28 29% 47% Median
29 13% 18%  
30 4% 4%  
31 0.5% 0.5%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations