Opinion Poll by Spinter tyrimai for Delfi, 15–26 January 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai 22.6% 26.5% 24.8–28.3% 24.3–28.9% 23.9–29.3% 23.1–30.2%
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga 22.4% 22.5% 20.8–24.2% 20.4–24.7% 20.0–25.1% 19.2–26.0%
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija 15.0% 11.0% 9.8–12.3% 9.5–12.7% 9.2–13.1% 8.7–13.7%
Partija tvarka ir teisingumas 7.8% 8.2% 7.2–9.4% 6.9–9.8% 6.7–10.1% 6.2–10.7%
Darbo Partija 4.9% 6.9% 6.0–8.1% 5.7–8.4% 5.5–8.7% 5.1–9.2%
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija 5.7% 6.5% 5.6–7.6% 5.4–8.0% 5.2–8.2% 4.8–8.8%
Liberalų Sąjūdis 9.4% 4.5% 3.7–5.4% 3.5–5.7% 3.3–5.9% 3.0–6.4%
Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija 0.0% 3.2% 2.6–4.0% 2.4–4.2% 2.2–4.4% 2.0–4.9%
Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“ 0.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.1–4.2% 1.8–4.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai 31 22 21–24 20–25 20–25 19–26
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga 54 19 17–20 17–21 17–21 16–22
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija 17 9 8–10 8–11 8–11 7–12
Partija tvarka ir teisingumas 8 7 6–8 6–8 6–9 5–9
Darbo Partija 2 6 5–7 5–7 5–7 4–8
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija 8 5 5–7 5–7 4–7 0–8
Liberalų Sąjūdis 14 0 0–4 0–5 0–5 0–5
Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija 0 0 0 0 0 0
Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“ 0 0 0 0 0 0

Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 2% 99.9%  
20 7% 98%  
21 18% 91%  
22 30% 74% Median
23 24% 43%  
24 13% 20%  
25 5% 6%  
26 0.7% 0.8%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 2% 99.9%  
17 8% 98%  
18 26% 89%  
19 32% 64% Median
20 24% 32%  
21 6% 8%  
22 2% 2%  
23 0.2% 0.2%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0% Last Result

Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 2% 100%  
8 20% 98%  
9 44% 78% Median
10 25% 34%  
11 8% 9%  
12 0.8% 0.8%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0% Last Result

Partija tvarka ir teisingumas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partija tvarka ir teisingumas page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 1.5% 100%  
6 23% 98.5%  
7 51% 75% Median
8 22% 25% Last Result
9 3% 3%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Darbo Partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Darbo Partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100%  
1 0% 99.7%  
2 0% 99.7% Last Result
3 0% 99.7%  
4 1.0% 99.7%  
5 38% 98.7%  
6 39% 61% Median
7 20% 22%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0% 0%  

Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.2% 100%  
1 0% 98.8%  
2 0% 98.8%  
3 0% 98.8%  
4 3% 98.8%  
5 46% 96% Median
6 37% 50%  
7 12% 13%  
8 0.6% 0.6% Last Result
9 0% 0%  

Liberalų Sąjūdis

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalų Sąjūdis page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 73% 100% Median
1 0% 27%  
2 0% 27%  
3 0% 27%  
4 21% 27%  
5 6% 7%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.2%  
2 0% 0.2%  
3 0% 0.2%  
4 0.2% 0.2%  
5 0% 0%  

Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“ page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga – Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija 71 28 0% 26–30 26–31 25–31 24–32

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga – Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.6% 100%  
25 3% 99.4%  
26 7% 96%  
27 20% 89%  
28 32% 69% Median
29 21% 37%  
30 11% 16%  
31 4% 5%  
32 0.8% 1.0%  
33 0.1% 0.2%  
34 0% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations