Opinion Poll by Baltijos tyrimai for ELTA, 23 January–3 February 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai 22.6% 23.9% 22.3–25.7% 21.8–26.2% 21.4–26.7% 20.6–27.5%
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga 22.4% 21.7% 20.1–23.5% 19.7–24.0% 19.3–24.4% 18.6–25.3%
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija 15.0% 12.7% 11.4–14.2% 11.1–14.6% 10.8–14.9% 10.2–15.6%
Partija tvarka ir teisingumas 7.8% 11.9% 10.7–13.3% 10.3–13.7% 10.1–14.1% 9.5–14.8%
Darbo Partija 4.9% 8.1% 7.1–9.4% 6.8–9.7% 6.6–10.0% 6.1–10.6%
Liberalų Sąjūdis 9.4% 6.3% 5.4–7.3% 5.1–7.7% 4.9–7.9% 4.5–8.5%
Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“ 0.0% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.2% 3.8–6.5% 3.4–7.0%
Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija 0.0% 3.6% 2.9–4.5% 2.7–4.7% 2.6–4.9% 2.3–5.4%
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija 5.7% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.1–4.2% 1.8–4.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai 31 19 18–21 18–21 17–21 16–22
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga 54 17 16–19 16–19 15–19 15–20
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija 17 10 9–11 9–12 8–12 8–12
Partija tvarka ir teisingumas 8 9 8–10 8–11 8–11 8–12
Darbo Partija 2 6 6–8 6–8 5–8 5–9
Liberalų Sąjūdis 14 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 0–7
Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“ 0 4 0–5 0–5 0–5 0–5
Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija 0 0 0 0 0 0–4
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija 8 0 0 0 0 0

Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.6% 100%  
17 4% 99.4%  
18 15% 96%  
19 39% 80% Median
20 27% 41%  
21 12% 14%  
22 2% 2%  
23 0.1% 0.2%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.2% 100%  
15 3% 99.8%  
16 21% 97%  
17 27% 76% Median
18 34% 49%  
19 13% 15%  
20 2% 2%  
21 0.3% 0.3%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0% Last Result

Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 3% 100%  
9 25% 97%  
10 39% 72% Median
11 26% 33%  
12 7% 7%  
13 0.4% 0.5%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0% Last Result

Partija tvarka ir teisingumas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partija tvarka ir teisingumas page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.4% 100%  
8 11% 99.6% Last Result
9 44% 89% Median
10 37% 44%  
11 6% 7%  
12 1.2% 1.3%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Darbo Partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Darbo Partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0.1% 100%  
5 5% 99.9%  
6 48% 95% Median
7 31% 47%  
8 15% 15%  
9 0.8% 0.8%  
10 0% 0%  

Liberalų Sąjūdis

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalų Sąjūdis page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 0% 98%  
2 0% 98%  
3 0% 98%  
4 19% 98%  
5 60% 80% Median
6 19% 20%  
7 0.7% 0.8%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“ page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 49% 100% Last Result
1 0% 51%  
2 0% 51%  
3 0% 51%  
4 37% 51% Median
5 13% 13%  
6 0.3% 0.3%  
7 0% 0%  

Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 2%  
2 0% 2%  
3 0% 2%  
4 2% 2%  
5 0% 0%  

Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga – Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija 71 27 0% 26–29 25–30 25–30 24–31

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga – Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 1.5% 99.9%  
25 7% 98%  
26 15% 91%  
27 26% 75% Median
28 25% 49%  
29 16% 24%  
30 7% 9%  
31 2% 2%  
32 0.3% 0.3%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations