Opinion Poll by Vilmorus for Lietuvos rytas, 8–17 February 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai 22.6% 31.1% 29.3–33.0% 28.8–33.6% 28.3–34.0% 27.5–34.9%
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga 22.4% 27.3% 25.6–29.2% 25.1–29.7% 24.7–30.1% 23.9–31.0%
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija 15.0% 8.1% 7.1–9.3% 6.8–9.6% 6.6–9.9% 6.1–10.5%
Darbo Partija 4.9% 7.9% 6.9–9.1% 6.6–9.4% 6.4–9.7% 6.0–10.3%
Partija tvarka ir teisingumas 7.8% 7.0% 6.1–8.2% 5.8–8.5% 5.6–8.8% 5.2–9.3%
Liberalų Sąjūdis 9.4% 5.8% 4.9–6.8% 4.7–7.1% 4.5–7.4% 4.1–7.9%
Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“ 0.0% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 3.0–5.4% 2.7–5.9%
Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija 0.0% 3.6% 3.0–4.5% 2.8–4.7% 2.6–4.9% 2.3–5.4%
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija 5.7% 3.4% 2.8–4.3% 2.6–4.5% 2.5–4.7% 2.2–5.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai 31 25 23–27 23–27 22–28 22–29
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga 54 22 20–23 20–24 19–24 19–25
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija 17 6 6–8 5–8 5–8 5–8
Darbo Partija 2 6 6–7 5–8 5–8 5–8
Partija tvarka ir teisingumas 8 6 5–7 5–7 4–7 4–8
Liberalų Sąjūdis 14 5 4–5 0–6 0–6 0–6
Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“ 0 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–5
Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija 0 0 0 0 0–4 0–4
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija 8 0 0 0 0 0–4

Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.4% 100%  
22 3% 99.6%  
23 9% 96%  
24 28% 87%  
25 27% 59% Median
26 19% 32%  
27 11% 14%  
28 2% 3%  
29 0.7% 0.8%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.2% 100%  
19 3% 99.8%  
20 11% 97%  
21 24% 86%  
22 35% 62% Median
23 20% 27%  
24 5% 7%  
25 2% 2%  
26 0.2% 0.3%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0% Last Result

Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 5% 99.9%  
6 50% 95% Median
7 34% 45%  
8 10% 11%  
9 0.4% 0.4%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0% Last Result

Darbo Partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Darbo Partija page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0.1% 100%  
5 9% 99.9%  
6 52% 90% Median
7 32% 38%  
8 6% 6%  
9 0.3% 0.3%  
10 0% 0%  

Partija tvarka ir teisingumas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partija tvarka ir teisingumas page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 4% 99.9%  
5 30% 96%  
6 55% 66% Median
7 11% 12%  
8 0.6% 0.6% Last Result
9 0% 0%  

Liberalų Sąjūdis

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalų Sąjūdis page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 10% 100%  
1 0% 90%  
2 0% 90%  
3 0% 90%  
4 33% 90%  
5 50% 57% Median
6 7% 7%  
7 0.4% 0.4%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“ page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 94% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 6%  
2 0% 6%  
3 0% 6%  
4 6% 6%  
5 0.5% 0.5%  
6 0% 0%  

Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 3%  
2 0% 3%  
3 0% 3%  
4 3% 3%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.0% 100% Median
1 0% 1.0%  
2 0% 1.0%  
3 0% 1.0%  
4 0.9% 1.0%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga – Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija 71 28 0% 27–30 26–31 26–31 25–32

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga – Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.2% 100%  
25 2% 99.7%  
26 7% 98%  
27 20% 91%  
28 25% 71% Median
29 28% 46%  
30 12% 18%  
31 4% 6%  
32 2% 2%  
33 0.2% 0.3%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations