Opinion Poll by Baltijos tyrimai for ELTA, 15 March–10 April 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga | 22.4% | 25.0% | 23.3–26.8% | 22.8–27.4% | 22.4–27.8% | 21.7–28.7% |
| Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai | 22.6% | 24.0% | 22.4–25.8% | 21.9–26.3% | 21.5–26.8% | 20.7–27.6% |
| Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija | 15.0% | 16.0% | 14.6–17.6% | 14.2–18.0% | 13.9–18.4% | 13.2–19.2% |
| Darbo Partija | 4.9% | 9.0% | 8.0–10.3% | 7.7–10.7% | 7.4–11.0% | 6.9–11.6% |
| Partija tvarka ir teisingumas | 7.8% | 5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.2% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.4–7.0% |
| Liberalų Sąjūdis | 9.4% | 5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.2% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.4–7.0% |
| Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija | 0.0% | 5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.2% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.4–7.0% |
| Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija | 5.7% | 4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.1% | 2.9–5.4% | 2.6–5.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga | 54 | 22 | 19–24 | 19–25 | 18–25 | 17–26 |
| Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai | 31 | 20 | 18–23 | 18–24 | 17–24 | 16–25 |
| Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija | 17 | 13 | 12–15 | 11–16 | 11–16 | 11–17 |
| Darbo Partija | 2 | 8 | 7–9 | 6–9 | 6–10 | 6–11 |
| Partija tvarka ir teisingumas | 8 | 0 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 |
| Liberalų Sąjūdis | 14 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 |
| Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija | 0 | 0 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 |
| Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 17 | 1.0% | 99.9% | |
| 18 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 19 | 15% | 97% | |
| 20 | 19% | 82% | |
| 21 | 13% | 64% | |
| 22 | 20% | 51% | Median |
| 23 | 17% | 31% | |
| 24 | 7% | 14% | |
| 25 | 6% | 7% | |
| 26 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 17 | 3% | 99.4% | |
| 18 | 9% | 97% | |
| 19 | 13% | 87% | |
| 20 | 25% | 74% | Median |
| 21 | 21% | 49% | |
| 22 | 10% | 28% | |
| 23 | 12% | 18% | |
| 24 | 5% | 6% | |
| 25 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 26 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 11 | 5% | 99.9% | |
| 12 | 8% | 95% | |
| 13 | 40% | 87% | Median |
| 14 | 16% | 47% | |
| 15 | 21% | 31% | |
| 16 | 8% | 10% | |
| 17 | 0.9% | 1.4% | Last Result |
| 18 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Darbo Partija
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Darbo Partija page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 6 | 6% | 99.7% | |
| 7 | 36% | 94% | |
| 8 | 34% | 58% | Median |
| 9 | 21% | 24% | |
| 10 | 3% | 3% | |
| 11 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Partija tvarka ir teisingumas
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partija tvarka ir teisingumas page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 52% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 48% | |
| 2 | 0% | 48% | |
| 3 | 0% | 48% | |
| 4 | 24% | 48% | |
| 5 | 23% | 24% | |
| 6 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Liberalų Sąjūdis
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalų Sąjūdis page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 56% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 44% | |
| 2 | 0% | 44% | |
| 3 | 0% | 44% | |
| 4 | 35% | 44% | |
| 5 | 7% | 9% | |
| 6 | 2% | 2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 55% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 45% | |
| 2 | 0% | 45% | |
| 3 | 0% | 45% | |
| 4 | 18% | 45% | |
| 5 | 26% | 27% | |
| 6 | 1.3% | 1.3% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 92% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 8% | |
| 2 | 0% | 8% | |
| 3 | 0% | 8% | |
| 4 | 6% | 8% | |
| 5 | 2% | 2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga – Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija | 71 | 35 | 0% | 32–39 | 31–40 | 30–41 | 29–41 |
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga – Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 30 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 31 | 4% | 97% | |
| 32 | 12% | 93% | |
| 33 | 14% | 81% | |
| 34 | 9% | 67% | |
| 35 | 12% | 58% | Median |
| 36 | 12% | 46% | |
| 37 | 13% | 34% | |
| 38 | 10% | 21% | |
| 39 | 5% | 11% | |
| 40 | 3% | 6% | |
| 41 | 3% | 3% | |
| 42 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | Last Result, Majority |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Baltijos tyrimai
- Commissioner(s): ELTA
- Fieldwork period: 15 March–10 April 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 1007
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.70%