Opinion Poll by Vilmorus for Lietuvos rytas, 4–13 April 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai 22.6% 30.7% 28.9–32.6% 28.4–33.1% 28.0–33.6% 27.1–34.5%
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga 22.4% 23.7% 22.1–25.5% 21.6–26.0% 21.2–26.4% 20.5–27.3%
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija 15.0% 10.9% 9.7–12.2% 9.4–12.6% 9.1–12.9% 8.6–13.6%
Partija tvarka ir teisingumas 7.8% 8.9% 7.9–10.2% 7.6–10.5% 7.3–10.8% 6.8–11.4%
Darbo Partija 4.9% 8.9% 7.9–10.2% 7.6–10.5% 7.3–10.8% 6.8–11.4%
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija 5.7% 4.9% 4.2–5.9% 4.0–6.2% 3.8–6.4% 3.4–7.0%
Liberalų Sąjūdis 9.4% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.1% 2.9–5.3% 2.6–5.8%
Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“ 0.0% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.1% 2.9–5.3% 2.6–5.8%
Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija 0.0% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.1% 2.9–5.3% 2.6–5.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai 31 25 23–28 22–28 22–28 21–28
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga 54 19 18–21 17–21 17–21 16–22
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija 17 9 8–10 8–10 7–10 7–11
Partija tvarka ir teisingumas 8 7 7–8 6–9 6–9 5–9
Darbo Partija 2 7 7–8 6–8 6–8 5–9
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija 8 0 0–4 0–5 0–5 0–6
Liberalų Sąjūdis 14 0 0 0 0–4 0–5
Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“ 0 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–4
Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija 0 0 0 0 0 0–4

Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.8% 99.9%  
22 5% 99.2%  
23 12% 94%  
24 19% 82%  
25 25% 63% Median
26 14% 38%  
27 3% 24%  
28 21% 21%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 1.4% 99.8%  
17 5% 98%  
18 12% 94%  
19 46% 82% Median
20 22% 36%  
21 11% 14%  
22 2% 2%  
23 0.5% 0.5%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0% Last Result

Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 4% 99.9%  
8 35% 96%  
9 44% 61% Median
10 16% 17%  
11 1.0% 1.1%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0% Last Result

Partija tvarka ir teisingumas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partija tvarka ir teisingumas page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.5% 100%  
6 7% 99.5%  
7 69% 92% Median
8 18% 23% Last Result
9 5% 5%  
10 0.2% 0.3%  
11 0% 0%  

Darbo Partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Darbo Partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.5% 100%  
6 8% 99.5%  
7 68% 92% Median
8 22% 24%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0.3% 0.3%  
11 0% 0%  

Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 55% 100% Median
1 0% 45%  
2 0% 45%  
3 0% 45%  
4 38% 45%  
5 7% 7%  
6 0.9% 0.9%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Liberalų Sąjūdis

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalų Sąjūdis page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Median
1 0% 3%  
2 0% 3%  
3 0% 3%  
4 1.1% 3%  
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“ page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 93% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 7%  
2 0% 7%  
3 0% 7%  
4 7% 7%  
5 0% 0%  

Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 1.4%  
2 0% 1.4%  
3 0% 1.4%  
4 1.2% 1.4%  
5 0.3% 0.3%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga – Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija 71 28 0% 26–30 26–31 25–31 24–32

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga – Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.2% 99.9%  
24 1.2% 99.7%  
25 3% 98%  
26 6% 95%  
27 26% 89%  
28 32% 63% Median
29 17% 31%  
30 4% 14%  
31 9% 10%  
32 0.8% 0.9%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations