Opinion Poll by Spinter tyrimai for Delfi, 20–29 April 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai 22.6% 28.0% 26.3–29.9% 25.8–30.5% 25.4–30.9% 24.5–31.8%
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga 22.4% 24.0% 22.3–25.8% 21.9–26.3% 21.4–26.7% 20.7–27.6%
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija 15.0% 11.0% 9.8–12.4% 9.5–12.8% 9.2–13.1% 8.7–13.8%
Liberalų Sąjūdis 9.4% 9.0% 8.0–10.3% 7.7–10.6% 7.4–11.0% 6.9–11.6%
Darbo Partija 4.9% 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.7–9.6% 6.5–9.9% 6.1–10.5%
Partija tvarka ir teisingumas 7.8% 7.0% 6.1–8.2% 5.8–8.5% 5.6–8.8% 5.2–9.4%
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija 5.7% 6.0% 5.2–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.7% 4.3–8.2%
Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“ 0.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.1–4.2% 1.8–4.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai 31 21 20–23 19–23 19–23 18–24
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga 54 18 17–19 16–20 16–20 15–21
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija 17 8 7–9 7–10 7–10 7–10
Liberalų Sąjūdis 14 7 6–8 6–8 6–8 5–9
Darbo Partija 2 6 5–7 5–7 5–7 4–8
Partija tvarka ir teisingumas 8 5 5–6 4–6 4–7 4–7
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija 8 5 4–5 0–6 0–6 0–6
Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“ 0 0 0 0 0 0

Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.9% 100%  
19 7% 99.1%  
20 23% 92%  
21 34% 69% Median
22 24% 35%  
23 9% 11%  
24 2% 2%  
25 0.2% 0.2%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.5% 100%  
16 7% 99.5%  
17 28% 92%  
18 35% 64% Median
19 21% 29%  
20 7% 8%  
21 1.2% 1.3%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0% Last Result

Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.4% 100%  
7 12% 99.6%  
8 47% 87% Median
9 35% 40%  
10 5% 6%  
11 0.3% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0% Last Result

Liberalų Sąjūdis

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalų Sąjūdis page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 2% 100%  
6 29% 98%  
7 55% 69% Median
8 13% 14%  
9 1.1% 1.2%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Darbo Partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Darbo Partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0.6% 100%  
5 18% 99.4%  
6 56% 82% Median
7 23% 26%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0% 0%  

Partija tvarka ir teisingumas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partija tvarka ir teisingumas page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 0% 99.8%  
2 0% 99.8%  
3 0% 99.8%  
4 6% 99.8%  
5 55% 94% Median
6 35% 38%  
7 3% 3%  
8 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
9 0% 0%  

Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 6% 100%  
1 0% 94%  
2 0% 94%  
3 0% 94%  
4 37% 94%  
5 51% 57% Median
6 6% 6%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“ page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga – Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija 71 26 0% 25–28 24–28 24–29 23–30

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga – Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.7% 100%  
24 5% 99.3%  
25 18% 94%  
26 37% 76% Median
27 24% 39%  
28 11% 15%  
29 3% 4%  
30 0.7% 0.8%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations