Opinion Poll by Vilmorus for Lietuvos rytas, 13–18 May 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai 22.6% 30.4% 28.6–32.4% 28.1–32.9% 27.6–33.4% 26.8–34.3%
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga 22.4% 28.8% 27.0–30.7% 26.5–31.3% 26.1–31.7% 25.2–32.7%
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija 15.0% 10.6% 9.4–11.9% 9.1–12.3% 8.8–12.7% 8.3–13.4%
Darbo Partija 4.9% 8.6% 7.5–9.8% 7.2–10.2% 7.0–10.5% 6.5–11.1%
Partija tvarka ir teisingumas 7.8% 5.8% 5.0–6.9% 4.7–7.2% 4.5–7.5% 4.1–8.0%
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija 5.7% 4.5% 3.7–5.5% 3.5–5.7% 3.4–6.0% 3.0–6.5%
Liberalų Sąjūdis 9.4% 4.4% 3.6–5.3% 3.4–5.6% 3.3–5.9% 2.9–6.3%
Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija 0.0% 3.9% 3.2–4.8% 3.0–5.0% 2.8–5.3% 2.5–5.7%
Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“ 0.0% 2.7% 2.2–3.6% 2.0–3.8% 1.9–4.0% 1.7–4.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai 31 25 23–27 22–27 22–28 21–29
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga 54 23 21–25 21–26 20–26 20–27
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija 17 9 7–10 7–10 7–10 6–11
Darbo Partija 2 7 6–8 6–8 5–9 5–9
Partija tvarka ir teisingumas 8 5 4–6 0–6 0–6 0–7
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija 8 0 0–4 0–5 0–5 0–5
Liberalų Sąjūdis 14 0 0–4 0–4 0–5 0–5
Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija 0 0 0 0 0–4 0–4
Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“ 0 0 0 0 0 0

Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.4% 100%  
21 1.3% 99.6%  
22 6% 98%  
23 20% 92%  
24 17% 72%  
25 21% 56% Median
26 17% 35%  
27 13% 17%  
28 3% 4%  
29 0.8% 1.0%  
30 0.2% 0.2%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.5% 100%  
20 3% 99.5%  
21 9% 96%  
22 17% 87%  
23 27% 69% Median
24 25% 42%  
25 9% 18%  
26 6% 8%  
27 2% 2%  
28 0.1% 0.2%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0% Last Result

Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.5% 100%  
7 13% 99.5%  
8 27% 86%  
9 45% 59% Median
10 13% 14%  
11 1.2% 1.3%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0% Last Result

Darbo Partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Darbo Partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 4% 100%  
6 21% 96%  
7 52% 74% Median
8 19% 22%  
9 3% 3%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Partija tvarka ir teisingumas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partija tvarka ir teisingumas page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 9% 100%  
1 0% 91%  
2 0% 91%  
3 0% 91%  
4 23% 91%  
5 57% 67% Median
6 10% 10%  
7 0.5% 0.5%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 75% 100% Median
1 0% 25%  
2 0% 25%  
3 0% 25%  
4 17% 25%  
5 8% 8%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Liberalų Sąjūdis

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalų Sąjūdis page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 81% 100% Median
1 0% 19%  
2 0% 19%  
3 0% 19%  
4 14% 19%  
5 5% 5%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 95% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 5%  
2 0% 5%  
3 0% 5%  
4 4% 5%  
5 0.4% 0.4%  
6 0% 0%  

Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“ page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga – Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija 71 32 0% 30–34 29–35 28–35 27–36

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga – Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 1.2% 99.9%  
28 2% 98.8%  
29 6% 97%  
30 16% 91%  
31 21% 76%  
32 16% 54% Median
33 20% 38%  
34 11% 18%  
35 5% 7%  
36 0.8% 1.2%  
37 0.3% 0.4%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations