Opinion Poll by Spinter tyrimai for Delfi, 17–25 May 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai 22.6% 26.1% 24.4–27.9% 23.9–28.4% 23.5–28.9% 22.7–29.8%
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga 22.4% 22.1% 20.5–23.9% 20.1–24.4% 19.7–24.8% 18.9–25.7%
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija 15.0% 11.4% 10.2–12.8% 9.9–13.2% 9.6–13.5% 9.0–14.2%
Liberalų Sąjūdis 9.4% 9.3% 8.2–10.6% 7.9–11.0% 7.7–11.3% 7.2–11.9%
Darbo Partija 4.9% 7.7% 6.8–8.9% 6.5–9.3% 6.2–9.6% 5.8–10.2%
Partija tvarka ir teisingumas 7.8% 6.7% 5.8–7.9% 5.6–8.2% 5.3–8.5% 4.9–9.0%
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija 5.7% 5.5% 4.6–6.5% 4.4–6.8% 4.2–7.0% 3.9–7.6%
Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija 0.0% 3.5% 2.8–4.3% 2.7–4.6% 2.5–4.8% 2.2–5.2%
Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“ 0.0% 2.3% 1.8–3.0% 1.6–3.2% 1.5–3.4% 1.3–3.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai 31 21 19–22 19–23 19–23 18–24
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga 54 18 16–19 16–19 15–20 15–21
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija 17 9 8–10 8–11 7–11 7–12
Liberalų Sąjūdis 14 7 7–8 6–8 6–9 6–10
Darbo Partija 2 6 5–7 5–7 5–8 5–8
Partija tvarka ir teisingumas 8 5 5–6 4–7 4–7 0–7
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija 8 4 0–5 0–5 0–6 0–6
Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija 0 0 0 0 0 0–4
Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“ 0 0 0 0 0 0

Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.2% 100%  
18 2% 99.8%  
19 16% 98%  
20 21% 81%  
21 32% 60% Median
22 20% 28%  
23 7% 8%  
24 1.2% 1.3%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 2% 99.9%  
16 11% 97%  
17 29% 86%  
18 18% 57% Median
19 35% 39%  
20 3% 3%  
21 0.6% 0.7%  
22 0.2% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0% Last Result

Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 3% 100%  
8 29% 97%  
9 38% 68% Median
10 25% 30%  
11 5% 5%  
12 0.6% 0.6%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0% Last Result

Liberalų Sąjūdis

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalų Sąjūdis page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.2% 100%  
6 5% 99.8%  
7 47% 94% Median
8 43% 48%  
9 4% 5%  
10 0.5% 0.5%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Darbo Partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Darbo Partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0.2% 100%  
5 16% 99.8%  
6 52% 84% Median
7 29% 32%  
8 3% 3%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Partija tvarka ir teisingumas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partija tvarka ir teisingumas page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.6% 100%  
1 0% 99.4%  
2 0% 99.4%  
3 0% 99.4%  
4 5% 99.4%  
5 56% 94% Median
6 34% 39%  
7 5% 5%  
8 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
9 0% 0%  

Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 25% 100%  
1 0% 75%  
2 0% 75%  
3 0% 75%  
4 44% 75% Median
5 27% 30%  
6 3% 3%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.2% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.8%  
2 0% 0.8%  
3 0% 0.8%  
4 0.8% 0.8%  
5 0% 0%  

Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“ page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga – Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija 71 27 0% 25–29 24–29 24–30 23–31

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga – Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.5% 100%  
24 5% 99.5%  
25 12% 94%  
26 24% 82%  
27 25% 58% Median
28 19% 33%  
29 11% 14%  
30 3% 3%  
31 0.5% 0.5%  
32 0% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations