Opinion Poll by Vilmorus for Lietuvos rytas, 5–13 July 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai 22.6% 25.6% 23.9–27.5% 23.4–28.0% 23.0–28.5% 22.2–29.4%
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga 22.4% 20.2% 18.6–21.9% 18.2–22.4% 17.8–22.9% 17.1–23.7%
Darbo Partija 4.9% 13.4% 12.1–14.9% 11.7–15.3% 11.4–15.7% 10.8–16.4%
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija 15.0% 11.7% 10.5–13.2% 10.2–13.6% 9.9–13.9% 9.3–14.6%
Partija tvarka ir teisingumas 7.8% 9.4% 8.3–10.7% 8.0–11.1% 7.7–11.4% 7.2–12.0%
Laisvės partija 0.0% 4.6% 3.8–5.6% 3.6–5.9% 3.4–6.1% 3.1–6.6%
Liberalų Sąjūdis 9.4% 4.3% 3.6–5.2% 3.4–5.5% 3.2–5.8% 2.9–6.2%
Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija 0.0% 4.3% 3.6–5.2% 3.4–5.5% 3.2–5.8% 2.9–6.2%
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija 5.7% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.6–5.9%
Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“ 0.0% 2.0% 1.6–2.8% 1.4–3.0% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai 31 22 19–23 18–24 18–25 17–26
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga 54 17 15–18 15–19 14–19 14–20
Darbo Partija 2 11 10–12 9–12 9–13 9–14
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija 17 10 8–12 8–12 8–12 7–12
Partija tvarka ir teisingumas 8 8 7–9 7–9 6–9 6–10
Laisvės partija 0 0 0–4 0–5 0–5 0–5
Liberalų Sąjūdis 14 0 0–4 0–4 0–5 0–5
Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–5 0–5
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija 8 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–5
Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“ 0 0 0 0 0 0

Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 1.1% 99.9%  
18 5% 98.8%  
19 8% 94%  
20 9% 87%  
21 21% 78%  
22 39% 57% Median
23 9% 19%  
24 6% 9%  
25 3% 3%  
26 0.7% 0.7%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.2% 100%  
14 4% 99.8%  
15 13% 96%  
16 21% 83%  
17 37% 62% Median
18 18% 25%  
19 6% 7%  
20 0.5% 0.7%  
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0% Last Result

Darbo Partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Darbo Partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.3% 100%  
9 6% 99.7%  
10 18% 94%  
11 50% 76% Median
12 21% 26%  
13 4% 5%  
14 0.4% 0.6%  
15 0.3% 0.3%  
16 0% 0%  

Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.9% 100%  
8 15% 99.1%  
9 22% 85%  
10 20% 62% Median
11 31% 42%  
12 11% 11%  
13 0.2% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0% Last Result

Partija tvarka ir teisingumas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partija tvarka ir teisingumas page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 4% 99.9%  
7 26% 95%  
8 29% 70% Last Result, Median
9 39% 41%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Laisvės partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Laisvės partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 78% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 22%  
2 0% 22%  
3 0% 22%  
4 12% 22%  
5 10% 10%  
6 0.3% 0.3%  
7 0% 0%  

Liberalų Sąjūdis

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalų Sąjūdis page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 79% 100% Median
1 0% 21%  
2 0% 21%  
3 0% 21%  
4 18% 21%  
5 3% 3%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 85% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 15%  
2 0% 15%  
3 0% 15%  
4 11% 15%  
5 4% 4%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 95% 100% Median
1 0% 5%  
2 0% 5%  
3 0% 5%  
4 5% 5%  
5 0.6% 0.7%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“ page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga – Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija 71 27 0% 24–29 23–29 23–30 22–31

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga – Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100%  
22 2% 99.9%  
23 4% 98%  
24 11% 94%  
25 14% 83%  
26 11% 69%  
27 12% 58% Median
28 28% 46%  
29 14% 18%  
30 3% 4%  
31 0.9% 1.3%  
32 0.3% 0.3%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations