Opinion Poll by Baltijos tyrimai for ELTA, 15–29 July 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai 22.6% 21.0% 19.4–22.7% 19.0–23.2% 18.6–23.6% 17.8–24.5%
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija 15.0% 19.2% 17.7–20.9% 17.2–21.4% 16.9–21.8% 16.2–22.6%
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga 22.4% 18.1% 16.6–19.7% 16.2–20.2% 15.8–20.6% 15.2–21.4%
Partija tvarka ir teisingumas 7.8% 10.3% 9.2–11.6% 8.8–12.0% 8.6–12.3% 8.0–13.0%
Darbo Partija 4.9% 8.6% 7.6–9.8% 7.3–10.2% 7.0–10.5% 6.5–11.1%
Liberalų Sąjūdis 9.4% 7.0% 6.1–8.2% 5.8–8.5% 5.6–8.8% 5.2–9.3%
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija 5.7% 5.3% 4.5–6.3% 4.3–6.6% 4.1–6.9% 3.7–7.4%
Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“ 0.0% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.7–5.9%
Laisvės partija 0.0% 3.6% 2.9–4.5% 2.8–4.7% 2.6–5.0% 2.3–5.4%
Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija 0.0% 2.7% 2.1–3.5% 2.0–3.7% 1.9–3.9% 1.6–4.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai 31 17 16–18 15–19 15–19 14–20
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija 17 15 14–16 14–17 13–17 13–18
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga 54 15 13–16 13–16 13–17 12–17
Partija tvarka ir teisingumas 8 8 8–9 7–10 7–10 6–10
Darbo Partija 2 7 6–8 6–8 6–9 5–9
Liberalų Sąjūdis 14 6 5–6 5–7 4–7 4–7
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija 8 0 0–5 0–5 0–5 0–6
Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“ 0 0 0 0 0–4 0–4
Laisvės partija 0 0 0 0 0 0–4
Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija 0 0 0 0 0 0

Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 2% 99.9%  
15 6% 98%  
16 25% 92%  
17 21% 67% Median
18 37% 46%  
19 8% 10%  
20 1.4% 1.5%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.4% 100%  
13 3% 99.5%  
14 19% 96%  
15 30% 77% Median
16 39% 47%  
17 7% 7% Last Result
18 0.4% 0.5%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.2% 100%  
12 2% 99.8%  
13 12% 98%  
14 19% 86%  
15 31% 67% Median
16 32% 36%  
17 3% 4%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0% Last Result

Partija tvarka ir teisingumas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partija tvarka ir teisingumas page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.6% 100%  
7 9% 99.4%  
8 49% 91% Last Result, Median
9 34% 41%  
10 7% 8%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Darbo Partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Darbo Partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 2% 100%  
6 28% 98%  
7 53% 70% Median
8 14% 17%  
9 3% 3%  
10 0% 0%  

Liberalų Sąjūdis

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalų Sąjūdis page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 4% 99.9%  
5 44% 96%  
6 45% 52% Median
7 7% 7%  
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 64% 100% Median
1 0% 36%  
2 0% 36%  
3 0% 36%  
4 20% 36%  
5 15% 16%  
6 0.6% 0.6%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“ page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 95% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 5%  
2 0% 5%  
3 0% 5%  
4 5% 5%  
5 0.4% 0.4%  
6 0% 0%  

Laisvės partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Laisvės partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 2%  
2 0% 2%  
3 0% 2%  
4 1.5% 2%  
5 0% 0%  

Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija – Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga 71 30 0% 28–32 27–32 27–33 25–33

Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija – Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0% 100%  
25 0.7% 99.9%  
26 1.0% 99.2%  
27 6% 98%  
28 6% 92%  
29 19% 86%  
30 22% 67% Median
31 18% 44%  
32 24% 27%  
33 3% 3%  
34 0.2% 0.2%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations