Opinion Poll by Vilmorus for Lietuvos rytas, 6–14 September 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga 22.4% 23.5% 21.9–25.3% 21.4–25.8% 21.0–26.3% 20.2–27.2%
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai 22.6% 23.2% 21.6–25.0% 21.1–25.5% 20.7–26.0% 19.9–26.8%
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija 15.0% 13.5% 12.2–15.0% 11.8–15.4% 11.5–15.8% 10.9–16.5%
Darbo Partija 4.9% 11.8% 10.5–13.2% 10.2–13.6% 9.9–13.9% 9.3–14.6%
Partija tvarka ir teisingumas 7.8% 7.1% 6.1–8.3% 5.9–8.6% 5.7–8.9% 5.2–9.5%
Liberalų Sąjūdis 9.4% 5.2% 4.4–6.2% 4.1–6.5% 3.9–6.8% 3.6–7.3%
Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija 0.0% 5.2% 4.4–6.2% 4.1–6.5% 3.9–6.8% 3.6–7.3%
Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“ 0.0% 3.9% 3.2–4.8% 3.0–5.0% 2.8–5.3% 2.5–5.7%
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija 5.7% 3.4% 2.8–4.3% 2.6–4.6% 2.5–4.8% 2.2–5.2%
Laisvės partija 0.0% 2.9% 2.3–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.1–4.2% 1.8–4.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga 54 19 17–21 17–22 17–22 16–23
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai 31 19 17–21 17–21 17–22 16–23
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija 17 11 10–13 10–13 9–13 9–14
Darbo Partija 2 9 8–11 8–11 8–11 7–12
Partija tvarka ir teisingumas 8 6 5–7 5–7 5–7 4–8
Liberalų Sąjūdis 14 0 0–5 0–5 0–5 0–6
Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija 0 4 0–5 0–5 0–5 0–6
Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“ 0 0 0 0 0–4 0–4
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija 8 0 0 0 0 0–4
Laisvės partija 0 0 0 0 0 0

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.5% 100%  
16 2% 99.5%  
17 11% 98%  
18 13% 87%  
19 36% 74% Median
20 11% 38%  
21 19% 27%  
22 7% 8%  
23 0.8% 1.1%  
24 0.3% 0.3%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0% Last Result

Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.4% 100%  
16 2% 99.6%  
17 15% 98%  
18 15% 83%  
19 31% 68% Median
20 18% 36%  
21 15% 19%  
22 3% 4%  
23 0.8% 1.0%  
24 0.2% 0.2%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.3% 100%  
9 3% 99.7%  
10 21% 97%  
11 45% 76% Median
12 12% 31%  
13 18% 19%  
14 0.9% 0.9%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0% Last Result

Darbo Partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Darbo Partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 1.0% 100%  
8 9% 99.0%  
9 42% 90% Median
10 32% 48%  
11 14% 16%  
12 1.3% 1.4%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Partija tvarka ir teisingumas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partija tvarka ir teisingumas page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 0% 99.8%  
2 0% 99.8%  
3 0% 99.8%  
4 1.5% 99.8%  
5 32% 98%  
6 52% 67% Median
7 14% 15%  
8 0.9% 1.0% Last Result
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Liberalų Sąjūdis

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalų Sąjūdis page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 54% 100% Median
1 0% 46%  
2 0% 46%  
3 0% 46%  
4 28% 46%  
5 15% 17%  
6 2% 2%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 37% 100% Last Result
1 0% 63%  
2 0% 63%  
3 0% 63%  
4 30% 63% Median
5 31% 32%  
6 1.2% 1.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“ page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 3%  
2 0% 3%  
3 0% 3%  
4 3% 3%  
5 0.3% 0.3%  
6 0% 0%  

Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.1% 100% Median
1 0% 0.9%  
2 0% 0.9%  
3 0% 0.9%  
4 0.9% 0.9%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Laisvės partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Laisvės partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga – Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija 71 30 0% 28–33 27–35 27–35 25–35

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga – Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.6% 100%  
26 0.8% 99.4%  
27 5% 98.6%  
28 10% 94%  
29 10% 84%  
30 30% 74% Median
31 9% 44%  
32 22% 35%  
33 4% 12%  
34 1.5% 8%  
35 7% 7%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations