Opinion Poll by Vilmorus for Lietuvos rytas, 4–13 October 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai 22.6% 26.7% 25.0–28.6% 24.5–29.2% 24.1–29.6% 23.2–30.5%
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga 22.4% 19.0% 17.5–20.7% 17.1–21.2% 16.7–21.6% 16.0–22.5%
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija 15.0% 11.6% 10.4–13.0% 10.0–13.4% 9.8–13.8% 9.2–14.5%
Darbo Partija 4.9% 9.2% 8.1–10.5% 7.8–10.8% 7.5–11.1% 7.0–11.8%
Partija tvarka ir teisingumas 7.8% 8.2% 7.2–9.5% 6.9–9.8% 6.7–10.1% 6.2–10.8%
Liberalų Sąjūdis 9.4% 7.9% 6.9–9.1% 6.6–9.5% 6.4–9.8% 5.9–10.4%
Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija 0.0% 5.6% 4.7–6.6% 4.5–6.9% 4.3–7.2% 3.9–7.7%
Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“ 0.0% 4.6% 3.9–5.6% 3.7–5.9% 3.5–6.1% 3.1–6.6%
Laisvės partija 0.0% 3.8% 3.1–4.7% 2.9–5.0% 2.8–5.2% 2.5–5.7%
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija 5.7% 3.1% 2.5–3.9% 2.3–4.2% 2.2–4.4% 1.9–4.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai 31 22 20–22 19–22 19–23 18–24
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga 54 15 14–16 13–16 13–17 12–18
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija 17 9 9–10 8–10 8–11 7–11
Darbo Partija 2 7 7–8 6–9 6–9 5–9
Partija tvarka ir teisingumas 8 6 6–7 6–8 6–8 5–8
Liberalų Sąjūdis 14 6 5–8 5–8 5–8 5–8
Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija 0 5 0–5 0–5 0–6 0–6
Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“ 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–5 0–5
Laisvės partija 0 0 0 0 0 0–4
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija 8 0 0 0 0 0

Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.2% 100%  
18 1.1% 99.8%  
19 5% 98.7%  
20 22% 94%  
21 13% 72%  
22 56% 59% Median
23 2% 3%  
24 1.0% 1.2%  
25 0.2% 0.2%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.7% 100%  
13 9% 99.2%  
14 17% 90%  
15 55% 73% Median
16 15% 19%  
17 3% 4%  
18 0.5% 0.5%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0% Last Result

Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.6% 100%  
8 9% 99.4%  
9 66% 91% Median
10 20% 25%  
11 4% 5%  
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0% Last Result

Darbo Partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Darbo Partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.6% 100%  
6 8% 99.4%  
7 73% 92% Median
8 13% 19%  
9 5% 5%  
10 0.3% 0.3%  
11 0% 0%  

Partija tvarka ir teisingumas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partija tvarka ir teisingumas page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 2% 100%  
6 66% 98% Median
7 26% 32%  
8 6% 6% Last Result
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Liberalų Sąjūdis

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalų Sąjūdis page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.3% 100%  
5 12% 99.7%  
6 61% 88% Median
7 14% 27%  
8 12% 12%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 14% 100% Last Result
1 0% 86%  
2 0% 86%  
3 0% 86%  
4 13% 86%  
5 71% 73% Median
6 3% 3%  
7 0% 0%  

Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“ page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 84% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 16%  
2 0% 16%  
3 0% 16%  
4 13% 16%  
5 3% 3%  
6 0% 0%  

Laisvės partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Laisvės partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.5% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 1.5%  
2 0% 1.5%  
3 0% 1.5%  
4 1.4% 1.5%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga – Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija 71 24 0% 23–26 22–26 21–27 21–28

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga – Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.4% 100%  
21 3% 99.6%  
22 3% 97%  
23 16% 94%  
24 58% 78% Median
25 8% 20%  
26 7% 12%  
27 4% 5%  
28 0.4% 0.6%  
29 0.1% 0.2%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations