Opinion Poll by Spinter tyrimai for Delfi, 17–28 October 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai 22.6% 26.0% 24.3–27.8% 23.8–28.3% 23.4–28.8% 22.6–29.7%
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga 22.4% 14.7% 13.3–16.2% 13.0–16.6% 12.6–17.0% 12.0–17.8%
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija 15.0% 10.0% 8.9–11.3% 8.6–11.7% 8.3–12.0% 7.8–12.7%
Liberalų Sąjūdis 9.4% 9.1% 8.0–10.4% 7.8–10.8% 7.5–11.1% 7.0–11.7%
Darbo Partija 4.9% 7.9% 6.9–9.1% 6.7–9.5% 6.4–9.8% 6.0–10.4%
Partija tvarka ir teisingumas 7.8% 7.2% 6.3–8.4% 6.0–8.7% 5.8–9.0% 5.4–9.6%
Laisvės partija 0.0% 5.1% 4.3–6.1% 4.1–6.3% 3.9–6.6% 3.5–7.1%
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija 5.7% 4.6% 3.8–5.5% 3.6–5.8% 3.4–6.0% 3.1–6.5%
Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“ 0.0% 4.2% 3.5–5.1% 3.3–5.4% 3.1–5.6% 2.8–6.1%
Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija 0.0% 3.3% 2.7–4.1% 2.5–4.4% 2.3–4.6% 2.1–5.0%
Lietuvos Žaliųjų Partija 2.0% 2.9% 2.3–3.7% 2.1–3.9% 2.0–4.1% 1.8–4.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai 31 23 21–25 20–25 19–25 18–26
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga 54 13 11–14 11–15 11–16 10–16
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija 17 9 7–10 7–10 7–11 6–11
Liberalų Sąjūdis 14 8 7–9 7–10 6–10 6–11
Darbo Partija 2 7 6–8 6–8 6–9 5–10
Partija tvarka ir teisingumas 8 6 5–8 5–8 5–8 5–9
Laisvės partija 0 0 0–5 0–6 0–6 0–6
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija 8 0 0–5 0–5 0–5 0–5
Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“ 0 0 0 0–5 0–5 0–5
Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija 0 0 0 0 0 0
Lietuvos Žaliųjų Partija 0 0 0 0 0 0

Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 1.0% 100%  
19 2% 99.0%  
20 7% 97%  
21 11% 90%  
22 22% 79%  
23 32% 56% Median
24 7% 24%  
25 16% 18%  
26 2% 2%  
27 0.1% 0.2%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.2% 100%  
10 1.4% 99.8%  
11 18% 98%  
12 27% 81%  
13 27% 54% Median
14 19% 28%  
15 5% 8%  
16 3% 3%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0% Last Result

Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 1.0% 100%  
7 12% 99.0%  
8 29% 88%  
9 26% 59% Median
10 28% 32%  
11 4% 4%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0% Last Result

Liberalų Sąjūdis

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalų Sąjūdis page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 4% 99.9%  
7 20% 96%  
8 49% 76% Median
9 20% 27%  
10 5% 6%  
11 1.0% 1.0%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Darbo Partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Darbo Partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 2% 100%  
6 28% 98%  
7 34% 70% Median
8 33% 36%  
9 2% 3%  
10 0.7% 0.7%  
11 0% 0%  

Partija tvarka ir teisingumas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partija tvarka ir teisingumas page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0.1% 99.9%  
5 16% 99.8%  
6 35% 84% Median
7 32% 49%  
8 16% 17% Last Result
9 0.6% 0.7%  
10 0% 0%  

Laisvės partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Laisvės partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 50% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 50%  
2 0% 50%  
3 0% 50%  
4 14% 50%  
5 30% 36%  
6 6% 6%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 71% 100% Median
1 0% 29%  
2 0% 29%  
3 0% 29%  
4 12% 29%  
5 16% 17%  
6 0.3% 0.3%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“ page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 91% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 9%  
2 0% 9%  
3 0% 9%  
4 3% 9%  
5 6% 6%  
6 0% 0%  

Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.4%  
2 0% 0.4%  
3 0% 0.4%  
4 0.2% 0.4%  
5 0.1% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Lietuvos Žaliųjų Partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos Žaliųjų Partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga – Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija 71 22 0% 19–24 18–25 18–25 18–27

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga – Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.3% 100%  
18 5% 99.7%  
19 10% 95%  
20 17% 85%  
21 10% 67%  
22 28% 58% Median
23 17% 29%  
24 7% 13%  
25 3% 5%  
26 1.0% 2%  
27 0.9% 0.9%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations