Opinion Poll by Baltijos tyrimai for ELTA, 15–29 October 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai 22.6% 24.2% 22.5–26.0% 22.1–26.5% 21.6–27.0% 20.9–27.8%
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija 15.0% 19.4% 17.9–21.1% 17.4–21.6% 17.1–22.0% 16.4–22.8%
Darbo Partija 4.9% 13.9% 12.6–15.4% 12.2–15.8% 11.9–16.2% 11.3–16.9%
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga 22.4% 10.9% 9.7–12.3% 9.4–12.7% 9.1–13.0% 8.6–13.7%
Partija tvarka ir teisingumas 7.8% 8.3% 7.3–9.5% 7.0–9.9% 6.7–10.2% 6.3–10.8%
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija 5.7% 7.1% 6.2–8.3% 5.9–8.6% 5.7–8.9% 5.2–9.4%
Liberalų Sąjūdis 9.4% 6.8% 5.9–7.9% 5.6–8.3% 5.4–8.5% 5.0–9.1%
Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“ 0.0% 4.1% 3.4–5.0% 3.2–5.3% 3.0–5.5% 2.7–6.0%
Laisvės partija 0.0% 2.8% 2.2–3.6% 2.1–3.8% 1.9–4.0% 1.7–4.4%
Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija 0.0% 2.5% 2.0–3.3% 1.8–3.5% 1.7–3.7% 1.5–4.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai 31 19 17–20 17–21 17–21 16–21
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija 17 15 13–16 12–17 12–18 12–18
Darbo Partija 2 11 9–12 9–12 9–13 9–13
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga 54 9 7–10 7–10 7–10 6–11
Partija tvarka ir teisingumas 8 7 6–8 5–8 5–8 5–8
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija 8 5 4–6 4–6 4–7 4–7
Liberalų Sąjūdis 14 5 4–7 4–7 4–7 0–7
Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“ 0 0 0 0 0–4 0–5
Laisvės partija 0 0 0 0 0 0
Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija 0 0 0 0 0 0

Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.3% 100%  
16 2% 99.7%  
17 17% 98%  
18 20% 81%  
19 24% 61% Median
20 29% 37%  
21 8% 8%  
22 0.2% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 6% 100%  
13 7% 94%  
14 30% 87%  
15 37% 58% Median
16 11% 21%  
17 7% 10% Last Result
18 3% 3%  
19 0% 0%  

Darbo Partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Darbo Partija page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.2% 100%  
9 14% 99.8%  
10 35% 86%  
11 27% 51% Median
12 20% 24%  
13 4% 4%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.9% 100%  
7 9% 99.1%  
8 36% 90%  
9 38% 53% Median
10 14% 15%  
11 1.0% 1.1%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0% Last Result

Partija tvarka ir teisingumas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partija tvarka ir teisingumas page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 9% 99.9%  
6 37% 91%  
7 43% 54% Median
8 11% 11% Last Result
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100%  
1 0% 99.7%  
2 0% 99.7%  
3 0% 99.7%  
4 13% 99.7%  
5 55% 86% Median
6 28% 31%  
7 4% 4%  
8 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
9 0% 0%  

Liberalų Sąjūdis

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalų Sąjūdis page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.5% 100%  
1 0% 99.5%  
2 0% 99.5%  
3 0% 99.5%  
4 18% 99.5%  
5 49% 82% Median
6 21% 32%  
7 11% 11%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“ page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 4%  
2 0% 4%  
3 0% 4%  
4 3% 4%  
5 1.4% 1.4%  
6 0% 0%  

Laisvės partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Laisvės partija page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija – Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga 71 23 0% 21–25 21–25 21–26 20–27

Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija – Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 1.1% 99.9%  
21 10% 98.9%  
22 9% 89%  
23 45% 80%  
24 13% 35% Median
25 18% 22%  
26 2% 4%  
27 2% 2%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations