Opinion Poll by Baltijos tyrimai for ELTA, 14–27 November 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai 22.6% 26.3% 24.6–28.2% 24.1–28.7% 23.7–29.1% 22.8–30.0%
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija 15.0% 19.8% 18.3–21.5% 17.8–22.0% 17.4–22.4% 16.7–23.2%
Darbo Partija 4.9% 13.9% 12.6–15.4% 12.2–15.8% 11.9–16.2% 11.3–16.9%
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga 22.4% 12.6% 11.3–14.0% 11.0–14.4% 10.7–14.8% 10.1–15.5%
Liberalų Sąjūdis 9.4% 5.9% 5.0–7.0% 4.8–7.3% 4.6–7.5% 4.2–8.1%
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija 5.7% 5.9% 5.0–7.0% 4.8–7.3% 4.6–7.5% 4.2–8.1%
Partija tvarka ir teisingumas 7.8% 5.2% 4.4–6.2% 4.2–6.5% 4.0–6.8% 3.6–7.3%
Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija 0.0% 3.7% 3.0–4.6% 2.9–4.8% 2.7–5.1% 2.4–5.5%
Laisvės partija 0.0% 3.3% 2.7–4.1% 2.5–4.4% 2.4–4.6% 2.1–5.0%
Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“ 0.0% 3.2% 2.6–4.0% 2.4–4.3% 2.3–4.5% 2.0–4.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai 31 21 19–23 19–23 19–24 18–25
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija 17 16 15–18 14–18 14–19 13–19
Darbo Partija 2 11 10–13 10–13 9–13 9–14
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga 54 10 9–12 9–12 8–12 8–13
Liberalų Sąjūdis 14 5 0–5 0–6 0–6 0–6
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija 8 5 0–5 0–6 0–6 0–6
Partija tvarka ir teisingumas 8 4 0–5 0–5 0–5 0–6
Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija 0 0 0 0 0 0–4
Laisvės partija 0 0 0 0 0 0
Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“ 0 0 0 0 0 0–4

Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 2% 99.9%  
19 23% 98%  
20 16% 75%  
21 12% 59% Median
22 35% 47%  
23 9% 12%  
24 1.2% 3%  
25 1.3% 2%  
26 0.2% 0.4%  
27 0% 0.2%  
28 0.2% 0.2%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.9% 99.9%  
14 6% 99.0%  
15 28% 93%  
16 18% 65% Median
17 23% 47% Last Result
18 22% 24%  
19 2% 3%  
20 0.3% 0.3%  
21 0% 0%  

Darbo Partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Darbo Partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.1% 100%  
9 3% 99.9%  
10 13% 97%  
11 35% 85% Median
12 38% 50%  
13 10% 11%  
14 1.3% 1.4%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 5% 100%  
9 18% 95%  
10 36% 77% Median
11 28% 41%  
12 12% 13%  
13 0.8% 0.9%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0% Last Result

Liberalų Sąjūdis

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalų Sąjūdis page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 20% 100%  
1 0% 80%  
2 0% 80%  
3 0% 80%  
4 20% 80%  
5 52% 60% Median
6 8% 8%  
7 0.2% 0.2%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 18% 100%  
1 0% 82%  
2 0% 82%  
3 0% 82%  
4 9% 82%  
5 65% 72% Median
6 7% 8%  
7 0.3% 0.3%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Partija tvarka ir teisingumas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partija tvarka ir teisingumas page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 37% 100%  
1 0% 63%  
2 0% 63%  
3 0% 63%  
4 21% 63% Median
5 42% 42%  
6 0.6% 0.6%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 1.3%  
2 0% 1.3%  
3 0% 1.3%  
4 1.1% 1.3%  
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Laisvės partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Laisvės partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.3%  
2 0% 0.3%  
3 0% 0.3%  
4 0.3% 0.3%  
5 0% 0%  

Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“ page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.3% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.7%  
2 0% 0.7%  
3 0% 0.7%  
4 0.7% 0.7%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija – Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga 71 27 0% 25–29 24–29 24–29 22–30

Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija – Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.5% 99.9%  
23 0.9% 99.4%  
24 5% 98.5%  
25 22% 93%  
26 15% 72% Median
27 36% 57%  
28 7% 21%  
29 12% 14%  
30 1.4% 2%  
31 0.1% 0.4%  
32 0.2% 0.2%  
33 0% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations