Opinion Poll by Spinter tyrimai for Delfi, 19–29 November 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai 22.6% 27.5% 25.8–29.4% 25.3–29.9% 24.9–30.4% 24.0–31.3%
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija 15.0% 11.5% 10.3–12.9% 10.0–13.3% 9.7–13.6% 9.1–14.3%
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga 22.4% 10.8% 9.6–12.1% 9.3–12.5% 9.0–12.9% 8.5–13.5%
Darbo Partija 4.9% 10.4% 9.3–11.7% 8.9–12.1% 8.7–12.4% 8.1–13.1%
Liberalų Sąjūdis 9.4% 9.5% 8.4–10.8% 8.1–11.2% 7.8–11.5% 7.3–12.1%
Laisvės partija 0.0% 4.9% 4.1–5.8% 3.9–6.1% 3.7–6.4% 3.4–6.9%
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija 5.7% 4.8% 4.0–5.7% 3.8–6.0% 3.6–6.2% 3.3–6.8%
Partija tvarka ir teisingumas 7.8% 4.6% 3.8–5.5% 3.6–5.8% 3.4–6.0% 3.1–6.5%
Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“ 0.0% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.1% 2.9–5.3% 2.6–5.8%
Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija 0.0% 2.3% 1.8–3.0% 1.6–3.2% 1.5–3.4% 1.3–3.8%
Lietuvos Žaliųjų Partija 2.0% 1.6% 1.2–2.2% 1.1–2.4% 1.0–2.6% 0.8–2.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai 31 26 24–28 23–28 22–28 21–29
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija 17 11 10–12 9–12 9–13 8–13
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga 54 10 9–11 8–12 8–13 8–13
Darbo Partija 2 10 9–11 8–11 8–11 7–13
Liberalų Sąjūdis 14 9 8–10 8–10 7–10 7–11
Laisvės partija 0 0 0–6 0–6 0–6 0–6
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija 8 0 0–5 0–5 0–6 0–6
Partija tvarka ir teisingumas 8 0 0–5 0–5 0–5 0–6
Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“ 0 0 0 0–4 0–5 0–5
Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija 0 0 0 0 0 0
Lietuvos Žaliųjų Partija 0 0 0 0 0 0

Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 1.0% 99.9%  
22 2% 98.9%  
23 6% 97%  
24 9% 91%  
25 8% 83%  
26 29% 75% Median
27 13% 45%  
28 31% 32%  
29 0.3% 0.6%  
30 0.2% 0.2%  
31 0% 0.1% Last Result
32 0% 0%  

Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100%  
8 0.8% 99.9%  
9 9% 99.2%  
10 35% 91%  
11 16% 56% Median
12 36% 40%  
13 3% 3%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0% Last Result

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.2% 100%  
8 9% 99.8%  
9 13% 90%  
10 33% 77% Median
11 38% 45%  
12 2% 7%  
13 5% 5%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0% Last Result

Darbo Partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Darbo Partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0.5% 100%  
8 8% 99.4%  
9 22% 92%  
10 56% 70% Median
11 12% 14%  
12 1.0% 2%  
13 0.6% 0.6%  
14 0% 0%  

Liberalų Sąjūdis

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalų Sąjūdis page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 4% 99.9%  
8 38% 96%  
9 46% 58% Median
10 9% 12%  
11 2% 2%  
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Laisvės partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Laisvės partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 65% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 35%  
2 0% 35%  
3 0% 35%  
4 0.9% 35%  
5 18% 34%  
6 16% 16%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 76% 100% Median
1 0% 24%  
2 0% 24%  
3 0% 24%  
4 6% 24%  
5 14% 18%  
6 4% 4%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Partija tvarka ir teisingumas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partija tvarka ir teisingumas page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 83% 100% Median
1 0% 17%  
2 0% 17%  
3 0% 17%  
4 2% 17%  
5 15% 15%  
6 0.7% 0.7%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“ page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 94% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 6%  
2 0% 6%  
3 0% 6%  
4 1.4% 6%  
5 5% 5%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Lietuvos Žaliųjų Partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos Žaliųjų Partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija – Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga 71 21 0% 18–23 18–24 17–24 17–24

Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija – Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 3% 99.9%  
18 10% 97%  
19 8% 88%  
20 23% 80%  
21 10% 56% Median
22 7% 47%  
23 34% 39%  
24 5% 6%  
25 0.3% 0.3%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations