Opinion Poll by Baltijos tyrimai for ELTA, 10–21 December 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai 22.6% 23.8% 22.2–25.6% 21.7–26.1% 21.3–26.5% 20.5–27.4%
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija 15.0% 17.5% 16.0–19.1% 15.6–19.5% 15.2–19.9% 14.6–20.7%
Darbo Partija 4.9% 12.7% 11.5–14.2% 11.1–14.6% 10.8–14.9% 10.3–15.7%
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga 22.4% 9.9% 8.8–11.2% 8.5–11.6% 8.2–11.9% 7.7–12.5%
Partija tvarka ir teisingumas 7.8% 7.8% 6.9–9.0% 6.6–9.4% 6.3–9.7% 5.9–10.3%
Liberalų Sąjūdis 9.4% 7.6% 6.7–8.8% 6.4–9.2% 6.2–9.4% 5.7–10.0%
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija 5.7% 6.0% 5.1–7.0% 4.9–7.3% 4.7–7.6% 4.3–8.2%
Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“ 0.0% 4.4% 3.7–5.3% 3.5–5.6% 3.3–5.9% 3.0–6.3%
Laisvės partija 0.0% 3.3% 2.7–4.2% 2.5–4.4% 2.4–4.6% 2.1–5.1%
Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija 0.0% 3.2% 2.6–4.1% 2.5–4.3% 2.3–4.5% 2.0–5.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai 31 19 18–21 17–21 17–22 16–22
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija 17 14 13–16 12–16 12–16 11–17
Darbo Partija 2 10 9–12 9–12 9–12 8–13
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga 54 8 7–9 7–9 7–10 6–10
Partija tvarka ir teisingumas 8 6 6–7 5–8 5–8 5–8
Liberalų Sąjūdis 14 6 5–7 5–8 5–8 5–8
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija 8 5 4–6 0–6 0–6 0–7
Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“ 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–5 0–5
Laisvės partija 0 0 0 0 0 0
Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija 0 0 0 0 0 0

Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.5% 100%  
17 5% 99.5%  
18 21% 95%  
19 38% 74% Median
20 24% 36%  
21 9% 13%  
22 3% 4%  
23 0.4% 0.4%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.6% 100%  
12 7% 99.4%  
13 19% 93%  
14 37% 73% Median
15 25% 36%  
16 10% 11%  
17 1.3% 1.4% Last Result
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Darbo Partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Darbo Partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 2% 100%  
9 17% 98%  
10 38% 82% Median
11 32% 44%  
12 10% 11%  
13 1.0% 1.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 2% 100%  
7 21% 98%  
8 46% 77% Median
9 27% 31%  
10 4% 4%  
11 0.3% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0% Last Result

Partija tvarka ir teisingumas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partija tvarka ir teisingumas page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.2% 100%  
5 9% 99.8%  
6 47% 90% Median
7 34% 43%  
8 9% 9% Last Result
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Liberalų Sąjūdis

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalų Sąjūdis page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.3% 100%  
5 16% 99.7%  
6 52% 83% Median
7 25% 32%  
8 7% 7%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 7% 100%  
1 0% 93%  
2 0% 93%  
3 0% 93%  
4 15% 93%  
5 65% 78% Median
6 13% 14%  
7 0.5% 0.5%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“ page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 79% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 21%  
2 0% 21%  
3 0% 21%  
4 17% 21%  
5 3% 3%  
6 0% 0%  

Laisvės partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Laisvės partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.4%  
2 0% 0.4%  
3 0% 0.4%  
4 0.4% 0.4%  
5 0% 0%  

Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.2%  
2 0% 0.2%  
3 0% 0.2%  
4 0.2% 0.2%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija – Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga 71 22 0% 21–24 20–25 20–25 19–26

Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija – Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 1.4% 99.9%  
20 5% 98%  
21 25% 93%  
22 26% 68% Median
23 29% 42%  
24 6% 13%  
25 5% 7%  
26 1.1% 1.4%  
27 0.3% 0.3%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations