Opinion Poll by Vilmorus for Lietuvos rytas, 10–18 January 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai 22.6% 28.0% 26.3–29.9% 25.8–30.5% 25.3–30.9% 24.5–31.8%
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga 22.4% 19.3% 17.8–21.0% 17.3–21.5% 17.0–21.9% 16.2–22.7%
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija 15.0% 15.2% 13.8–16.7% 13.4–17.2% 13.1–17.5% 12.4–18.3%
Darbo Partija 4.9% 10.2% 9.0–11.5% 8.7–11.9% 8.4–12.2% 7.9–12.8%
Partija tvarka ir teisingumas 7.8% 7.3% 6.4–8.5% 6.1–8.8% 5.9–9.1% 5.4–9.7%
Liberalų Sąjūdis 9.4% 5.5% 4.7–6.6% 4.5–6.9% 4.3–7.1% 3.9–7.7%
Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“ 0.0% 4.8% 4.1–5.8% 3.8–6.1% 3.7–6.3% 3.3–6.9%
Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija 0.0% 4.1% 3.4–5.0% 3.2–5.3% 3.0–5.5% 2.7–6.0%
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija 5.7% 2.9% 2.3–3.7% 2.2–4.0% 2.0–4.2% 1.8–4.6%
Laisvės partija 0.0% 2.2% 1.7–2.9% 1.6–3.1% 1.5–3.3% 1.2–3.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai 31 22 21–24 20–25 19–25 19–27
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga 54 16 14–17 14–17 13–18 13–19
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija 17 13 11–13 10–14 10–14 10–15
Darbo Partija 2 8 7–9 7–9 7–10 6–11
Partija tvarka ir teisingumas 8 6 5–7 5–7 5–7 4–8
Liberalų Sąjūdis 14 5 0–5 0–6 0–6 0–6
Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“ 0 0 0–4 0–5 0–5 0–5
Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija 0 0 0 0–4 0–5 0–5
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija 8 0 0 0 0 0
Laisvės partija 0 0 0 0 0 0

Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 2% 99.9%  
20 6% 97%  
21 17% 92%  
22 36% 75% Median
23 18% 39%  
24 13% 21%  
25 5% 8%  
26 2% 2%  
27 0.6% 0.7%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 3% 99.8%  
14 10% 97%  
15 23% 87%  
16 51% 64% Median
17 9% 13%  
18 3% 4%  
19 0.6% 0.7%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0% Last Result

Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.2% 100%  
10 5% 99.8%  
11 8% 95%  
12 29% 87%  
13 50% 58% Median
14 7% 8%  
15 2% 2%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0% Last Result

Darbo Partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Darbo Partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.7% 100%  
7 42% 99.3%  
8 30% 57% Median
9 23% 27%  
10 3% 4%  
11 1.0% 1.0%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Partija tvarka ir teisingumas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partija tvarka ir teisingumas page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0.6% 99.9%  
5 23% 99.3%  
6 34% 76% Median
7 41% 42%  
8 1.3% 1.3% Last Result
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Liberalų Sąjūdis

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalų Sąjūdis page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 15% 100%  
1 0% 85%  
2 0% 85%  
3 0% 85%  
4 22% 85%  
5 57% 63% Median
6 6% 6%  
7 0.2% 0.2%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“ page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 75% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 25%  
2 0% 25%  
3 0% 25%  
4 18% 25%  
5 7% 7%  
6 0.3% 0.3%  
7 0% 0%  

Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 94% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 6%  
2 0% 6%  
3 0% 6%  
4 3% 6%  
5 3% 3%  
6 0% 0%  

Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Laisvės partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Laisvės partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga – Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija 71 29 0% 26–30 25–31 25–31 24–32

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga – Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 1.0% 99.8%  
25 7% 98.8%  
26 8% 92%  
27 17% 84%  
28 15% 67%  
29 41% 53% Median
30 5% 11%  
31 6% 6%  
32 0.3% 0.7%  
33 0.2% 0.4%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations