Opinion Poll by Respons Analyse for Aftenposten and Bergens Tidende, 9–14 June 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 30.8% 31.6% 29.5–33.9% 28.9–34.5% 28.4–35.1% 27.4–36.2%
Høyre 26.8% 24.1% 22.2–26.2% 21.6–26.8% 21.2–27.3% 20.3–28.3%
Fremskrittspartiet 16.3% 14.0% 12.5–15.8% 12.0–16.2% 11.7–16.7% 11.0–17.6%
Senterpartiet 5.5% 9.8% 8.6–11.4% 8.2–11.8% 7.9–12.2% 7.3–13.0%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 4.1% 4.8% 4.0–6.0% 3.7–6.3% 3.5–6.6% 3.1–7.2%
Kristelig Folkeparti 5.6% 4.7% 3.8–5.9% 3.6–6.2% 3.4–6.5% 3.0–7.1%
Venstre 5.2% 3.5% 2.8–4.5% 2.6–4.8% 2.4–5.1% 2.1–5.6%
Miljøpartiet de Grønne 2.8% 3.1% 2.4–4.1% 2.2–4.4% 2.1–4.6% 1.8–5.1%
Rødt 1.1% 2.3% 1.7–3.2% 1.6–3.4% 1.4–3.6% 1.2–4.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 55 58 54–62 53–64 52–65 50–68
Høyre 48 44 40–47 39–49 38–50 36–52
Fremskrittspartiet 29 25 22–29 22–30 21–30 20–32
Senterpartiet 10 18 16–20 15–21 14–22 13–24
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 7 9 2–11 2–11 2–12 1–13
Kristelig Folkeparti 10 9 2–11 2–11 2–12 2–13
Venstre 9 2 1–8 1–8 1–9 0–10
Miljøpartiet de Grønne 1 1 1–4 1–8 1–8 1–9
Rødt 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–7

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.2% 99.9%  
50 0.6% 99.7%  
51 1.0% 99.1%  
52 3% 98%  
53 5% 96%  
54 5% 91%  
55 7% 87% Last Result
56 12% 80%  
57 9% 68%  
58 13% 59% Median
59 20% 46%  
60 5% 25%  
61 4% 20%  
62 7% 16%  
63 3% 10%  
64 3% 7%  
65 2% 3%  
66 0.8% 2%  
67 0.2% 0.8%  
68 0.3% 0.5%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.2% 100%  
36 0.3% 99.8%  
37 0.9% 99.5%  
38 1.5% 98.6%  
39 3% 97%  
40 5% 94%  
41 8% 88%  
42 13% 81%  
43 14% 67%  
44 6% 53% Median
45 12% 47%  
46 8% 34%  
47 18% 26%  
48 3% 8% Last Result
49 3% 5%  
50 1.1% 3%  
51 0.6% 2%  
52 0.7% 1.1%  
53 0.3% 0.5%  
54 0.1% 0.2%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.3% 99.9%  
20 1.1% 99.5%  
21 2% 98%  
22 8% 97%  
23 7% 89%  
24 8% 82%  
25 25% 74% Median
26 11% 49%  
27 9% 38%  
28 12% 29%  
29 8% 16% Last Result
30 6% 9%  
31 0.7% 2%  
32 1.4% 2%  
33 0.1% 0.2%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.8% 99.9%  
14 4% 99.1%  
15 5% 96%  
16 12% 91%  
17 22% 79%  
18 22% 57% Median
19 16% 35%  
20 10% 19%  
21 5% 9%  
22 3% 4%  
23 0.9% 1.5%  
24 0.3% 0.5%  
25 0.1% 0.2%  
26 0% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 2% 100%  
2 9% 98%  
3 0% 89%  
4 0% 89%  
5 0% 89%  
6 0% 89%  
7 5% 89% Last Result
8 32% 84%  
9 22% 53% Median
10 13% 30%  
11 14% 17%  
12 2% 3%  
13 1.0% 1.2%  
14 0.2% 0.2%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.3% 100%  
2 13% 99.7%  
3 0.1% 87%  
4 0% 87%  
5 0% 87%  
6 0% 87%  
7 4% 87%  
8 20% 83%  
9 33% 63% Median
10 16% 30% Last Result
11 11% 14%  
12 2% 3%  
13 0.9% 1.1%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 24% 98%  
2 31% 74% Median
3 21% 43%  
4 0% 22%  
5 0% 22%  
6 0% 22%  
7 6% 22%  
8 12% 16%  
9 4% 5% Last Result
10 0.7% 0.9%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet de Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet de Grønne page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100%  
1 72% 99.6% Last Result, Median
2 8% 28%  
3 8% 20%  
4 2% 12%  
5 0% 10%  
6 0% 10%  
7 4% 10%  
8 4% 5%  
9 0.9% 1.0%  
10 0.1% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.5% 100% Last Result
1 76% 99.5% Median
2 23% 24%  
3 0% 0.6%  
4 0% 0.6%  
5 0% 0.6%  
6 0% 0.6%  
7 0.3% 0.6%  
8 0.3% 0.3%  
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 106 100 100% 95–104 93–105 91–107 87–109
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne 83 95 99.4% 89–99 88–100 87–102 84–105
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne – Rødt 73 87 84% 83–92 82–94 81–96 78–99
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne 73 86 69% 81–91 80–93 79–94 76–98
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 72 85 63% 81–90 80–92 78–94 76–96
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 72 84 43% 79–89 78–90 77–92 74–95
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 75 85 57% 79–89 77–90 76–92 74–94
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet de Grønne 97 84 37% 79–88 77–89 75–91 73–93
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 96 82 16% 77–86 75–87 73–88 70–91
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 65 76 2% 71–80 70–82 69–84 67–87
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 77 70 0% 65–75 64–76 62–77 60–79
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 62 67 0% 62–71 60–72 59–74 56–76
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 67 56 0% 51–60 49–62 48–62 44–65
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 29 30 0% 25–34 23–36 21–37 19–39

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0.3% 99.9%  
87 0.3% 99.6%  
88 0.1% 99.3%  
89 0.6% 99.2%  
90 0.5% 98.6%  
91 0.8% 98%  
92 2% 97%  
93 3% 96%  
94 3% 93%  
95 7% 91%  
96 4% 84%  
97 7% 80%  
98 6% 73% Median
99 11% 66%  
100 21% 56%  
101 9% 35%  
102 9% 26%  
103 3% 17%  
104 7% 14%  
105 3% 6%  
106 0.7% 3% Last Result
107 1.3% 3%  
108 0.4% 1.4%  
109 0.6% 1.0%  
110 0.2% 0.4%  
111 0.1% 0.2%  
112 0% 0.1%  
113 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0.2% 100%  
82 0.1% 99.8%  
83 0.2% 99.7% Last Result
84 0.1% 99.6%  
85 0.4% 99.4% Majority
86 1.1% 99.0%  
87 2% 98%  
88 3% 96%  
89 3% 93%  
90 3% 90%  
91 6% 87%  
92 11% 81%  
93 6% 71%  
94 13% 64%  
95 11% 51% Median
96 8% 40%  
97 11% 32%  
98 5% 21%  
99 7% 15%  
100 4% 9%  
101 2% 4%  
102 1.1% 3%  
103 0.6% 2%  
104 0.2% 1.0%  
105 0.4% 0.8%  
106 0.2% 0.4%  
107 0.1% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne – Rødt

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100% Last Result
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 99.9%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.2% 99.8%  
78 0.4% 99.6%  
79 0.4% 99.2%  
80 1.1% 98.8%  
81 2% 98%  
82 4% 96%  
83 5% 92%  
84 3% 87%  
85 13% 84% Majority
86 18% 72%  
87 7% 54% Median
88 12% 47%  
89 6% 35%  
90 8% 29%  
91 9% 21%  
92 3% 12%  
93 3% 9%  
94 1.5% 6%  
95 1.4% 5%  
96 1.3% 4%  
97 0.8% 2%  
98 0.6% 1.4%  
99 0.5% 0.9%  
100 0.2% 0.4%  
101 0.1% 0.2%  
102 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100% Last Result
74 0% 99.9%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.3% 99.8%  
77 0.5% 99.5%  
78 0.7% 99.0%  
79 2% 98%  
80 4% 97%  
81 5% 93%  
82 1.1% 88%  
83 4% 87%  
84 13% 83%  
85 17% 69% Majority
86 7% 53% Median
87 12% 46%  
88 6% 33%  
89 8% 27%  
90 8% 19%  
91 4% 11%  
92 2% 7%  
93 1.3% 5%  
94 2% 4%  
95 0.9% 2%  
96 0.3% 2%  
97 0.4% 1.3%  
98 0.4% 0.8%  
99 0.2% 0.4%  
100 0.1% 0.2%  
101 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100% Last Result
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.1% 99.8%  
75 0.3% 99.8%  
76 0.7% 99.5%  
77 0.7% 98.8%  
78 1.3% 98%  
79 1.2% 97%  
80 2% 96%  
81 5% 93%  
82 6% 88%  
83 9% 83%  
84 10% 73%  
85 19% 63% Majority
86 8% 44% Median
87 7% 35%  
88 7% 28%  
89 6% 21%  
90 6% 15%  
91 2% 8%  
92 2% 6%  
93 0.9% 4%  
94 0.9% 3%  
95 1.0% 2%  
96 0.6% 1.1%  
97 0.1% 0.5%  
98 0.1% 0.3%  
99 0.2% 0.2%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
73 0.1% 99.8%  
74 0.3% 99.7%  
75 0.7% 99.4%  
76 1.1% 98.7%  
77 1.4% 98%  
78 2% 96%  
79 5% 94%  
80 5% 90%  
81 3% 84%  
82 9% 81%  
83 11% 72%  
84 18% 61%  
85 9% 43% Median, Majority
86 7% 34%  
87 7% 27%  
88 6% 19%  
89 6% 13%  
90 3% 7%  
91 1.0% 4%  
92 1.0% 3%  
93 1.2% 2%  
94 0.6% 1.2%  
95 0.2% 0.6%  
96 0.1% 0.4%  
97 0.1% 0.3%  
98 0.2% 0.2%  
99 0.1% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 99.9%  
72 0.2% 99.9%  
73 0.2% 99.7%  
74 0.3% 99.5%  
75 0.6% 99.3% Last Result
76 2% 98.7%  
77 2% 97%  
78 3% 95%  
79 3% 92%  
80 4% 89%  
81 9% 85%  
82 6% 76%  
83 5% 70%  
84 7% 64%  
85 22% 57% Median, Majority
86 12% 36%  
87 7% 24%  
88 7% 17%  
89 3% 10%  
90 3% 7%  
91 1.3% 4%  
92 1.1% 3%  
93 0.3% 1.4%  
94 0.8% 1.1%  
95 0.2% 0.4%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet de Grønne

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.2% 99.9%  
71 0.1% 99.7%  
72 0.1% 99.6%  
73 0.6% 99.5%  
74 1.0% 98.9%  
75 0.9% 98%  
76 1.0% 97%  
77 2% 96%  
78 2% 94%  
79 6% 92%  
80 6% 85%  
81 7% 79% Median
82 7% 72%  
83 8% 65%  
84 19% 56%  
85 10% 37% Majority
86 9% 26%  
87 6% 17%  
88 5% 12%  
89 2% 7%  
90 1.2% 4%  
91 1.3% 3%  
92 0.7% 2%  
93 0.7% 1.2%  
94 0.3% 0.5%  
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0% 0.1% Last Result
98 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.2% 99.8%  
70 0.5% 99.6%  
71 0.6% 99.1%  
72 0.8% 98.6%  
73 1.3% 98%  
74 1.4% 96%  
75 2% 95%  
76 3% 94%  
77 3% 91%  
78 9% 88%  
79 8% 79%  
80 6% 71% Median
81 12% 65%  
82 7% 53%  
83 18% 46%  
84 13% 28%  
85 3% 16% Majority
86 5% 13%  
87 3% 7%  
88 2% 4%  
89 1.1% 2%  
90 0.4% 1.2%  
91 0.4% 0.8%  
92 0.2% 0.4%  
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
66 0.2% 99.9%  
67 0.2% 99.7%  
68 1.3% 99.5%  
69 1.2% 98%  
70 3% 97%  
71 7% 94%  
72 2% 87%  
73 5% 85%  
74 15% 80%  
75 8% 66%  
76 20% 58% Median
77 8% 38%  
78 8% 30%  
79 9% 22%  
80 4% 14%  
81 3% 10%  
82 1.2% 6%  
83 1.3% 5%  
84 2% 4%  
85 0.8% 2% Majority
86 0.2% 0.8%  
87 0.4% 0.6%  
88 0.2% 0.3%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.2% 99.8%  
60 0.5% 99.6%  
61 0.7% 99.1%  
62 2% 98%  
63 0.9% 97%  
64 3% 96%  
65 5% 92%  
66 4% 88%  
67 7% 84%  
68 13% 77%  
69 7% 63% Median
70 12% 56%  
71 7% 44%  
72 15% 37%  
73 8% 22%  
74 4% 14%  
75 4% 10%  
76 2% 6%  
77 2% 4% Last Result
78 1.3% 2%  
79 0.3% 0.8%  
80 0.3% 0.5%  
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.1% 99.8%  
56 0.3% 99.7%  
57 0.9% 99.5%  
58 0.9% 98.6%  
59 1.1% 98%  
60 2% 97%  
61 3% 95%  
62 7% 91% Last Result
63 6% 85%  
64 4% 79%  
65 12% 75%  
66 11% 63%  
67 20% 52% Median
68 7% 32%  
69 6% 25%  
70 5% 18%  
71 3% 13%  
72 5% 10%  
73 2% 5%  
74 1.3% 3%  
75 0.8% 2%  
76 0.3% 0.7%  
77 0.2% 0.5%  
78 0.2% 0.3%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.3% 100%  
44 0.3% 99.7%  
45 0.4% 99.4%  
46 0.3% 98.9%  
47 0.7% 98.7%  
48 2% 98%  
49 2% 96%  
50 4% 95%  
51 4% 91%  
52 3% 87%  
53 11% 83%  
54 10% 72%  
55 8% 62% Median
56 10% 53%  
57 7% 43%  
58 16% 36%  
59 7% 20%  
60 6% 13%  
61 1.1% 6%  
62 3% 5%  
63 1.1% 2%  
64 0.4% 1.3%  
65 0.4% 0.9%  
66 0.2% 0.4%  
67 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0% 100%  
18 0.1% 99.9%  
19 0.7% 99.8%  
20 1.0% 99.0%  
21 0.9% 98%  
22 2% 97%  
23 3% 96%  
24 2% 93%  
25 4% 91%  
26 3% 87%  
27 8% 84%  
28 16% 76%  
29 8% 61% Last Result, Median
30 14% 53%  
31 13% 39%  
32 10% 26%  
33 5% 16%  
34 3% 11%  
35 2% 8%  
36 2% 6%  
37 3% 4%  
38 0.6% 1.3%  
39 0.4% 0.7%  
40 0.1% 0.3%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations