Arbeiderpartiet
Voting Intentions
Last result: 30.8% (General Election of 8–9 September 2013)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Pollster/Media | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4–9 September 2017 | Kantar TNS TV2 |
28.1% | 26.9–29.3% | 26.6–29.6% | 26.3–29.9% | 25.8–30.5% |
| 5–8 September 2017 | Kantar TNS TV2 |
28.6% | 27.2–30.1% | 26.8–30.5% | 26.5–30.8% | 25.8–31.6% |
| 5–7 September 2017 | Opinion Perduco Avisenes Nyhetsbyrå |
26.4% | 24.4–28.5% | 23.9–29.1% | 23.4–29.6% | 22.5–30.6% |
| 4–7 September 2017 | Kantar TNS TV2 |
28.1% | 26.7–29.5% | 26.3–29.9% | 25.9–30.3% | 25.3–31.0% |
| 7 September 2017 | InFact VG |
28.0% | 26.8–29.3% | 26.4–29.6% | 26.1–29.9% | 25.6–30.6% |
| 4–6 September 2017 | Respons Analyse Aftenposten, Bergens Tidende and Adresseavisen |
25.6% | 23.9–27.4% | 23.4–28.0% | 23.0–28.4% | 22.2–29.3% |
| 5–6 September 2017 | Norfakta Nationen and Klassekampen |
26.3% | 24.4–28.4% | 23.8–29.0% | 23.4–29.5% | 22.5–30.5% |
| 1–6 September 2017 | Kantar TNS TV2 |
27.0% | 25.6–28.5% | 25.2–28.9% | 24.9–29.3% | 24.2–30.0% |
| 4–6 September 2017 | Ipsos MMI Dagbladet |
27.2% | 25.4–29.1% | 24.9–29.6% | 24.4–30.1% | 23.6–31.0% |
| 31 August–5 September 2017 | Kantar TNS TV2 |
27.5% | 26.1–29.0% | 25.7–29.4% | 25.4–29.7% | 24.7–30.5% |
| 31 August–4 September 2017 | Norstat NRK |
25.8% | 24.2–27.5% | 23.8–28.0% | 23.4–28.4% | 22.7–29.2% |
| 30 August–4 September 2017 | Kantar TNS TV2 |
26.5% | 25.1–28.0% | 24.7–28.5% | 24.4–28.8% | 23.7–29.6% |
| 4 September 2017 | InFact VG |
29.3% | 28.0–30.6% | 27.7–31.0% | 27.4–31.3% | 26.8–31.9% |
| 29 August–1 September 2017 | Kantar TNS TV2 |
26.1% | 24.7–27.5% | 24.3–28.0% | 24.0–28.3% | 23.4–29.0% |
| 28–31 August 2017 | Kantar TNS TV2 |
27.1% | 25.7–28.5% | 25.3–28.9% | 24.9–29.3% | 24.3–30.0% |
| 31 August 2017 | InFact VG |
29.0% | 27.7–30.3% | 27.4–30.7% | 27.1–31.0% | 26.4–31.6% |
| 28–30 August 2017 | Respons Analyse Aftenposten and Bergens Tidende |
26.1% | 24.4–28.0% | 23.9–28.5% | 23.5–29.0% | 22.7–29.9% |
| 25–30 August 2017 | Kantar TNS TV2 |
26.7% | 25.3–28.2% | 25.0–28.6% | 24.6–28.9% | 24.0–29.6% |
| 24–29 August 2017 | Kantar TNS TV2 |
25.7% | 24.2–27.2% | 23.8–27.6% | 23.5–28.0% | 22.8–28.8% |
| 22–28 August 2017 | Norstat Vårt Land |
25.6% | 23.9–27.5% | 23.4–28.1% | 22.9–28.5% | 22.1–29.5% |
| 24–28 August 2017 | Norstat NRK |
24.4% | 22.7–26.2% | 22.2–26.7% | 21.8–27.2% | 21.0–28.1% |
| 22–28 August 2017 | Kantar TNS TV2 |
26.5% | 25.1–28.0% | 24.7–28.4% | 24.3–28.8% | 23.7–29.5% |
| 21–25 August 2017 | Kantar TNS TV2 |
26.8% | 25.2–28.3% | 24.8–28.8% | 24.4–29.2% | 23.7–30.0% |
| 18–23 August 2017 | Respons Analyse Aftenposten, Bergens Tidende and Adresseavisen |
27.3% | 25.5–29.2% | 25.0–29.7% | 24.6–30.1% | 23.8–31.1% |
| 18–23 August 2017 | Kantar TNS TV2 |
27.9% | 26.2–29.8% | 25.7–30.3% | 25.3–30.7% | 24.5–31.6% |
| 21–23 August 2017 | Ipsos MMI Dagbladet |
29.5% | 27.6–31.5% | 27.1–32.0% | 26.7–32.5% | 25.8–33.5% |
| 23 August 2017 | InFact VG |
27.6% | 26.3–28.9% | 26.0–29.2% | 25.7–29.6% | 25.1–30.2% |
| 15–21 August 2017 | Norstat NRK |
29.0% | 27.0–31.2% | 26.4–31.8% | 25.9–32.3% | 25.0–33.3% |
| 15–20 August 2017 | Sentio Dagens Næringsliv |
27.0% | 24.9–29.2% | 24.4–29.8% | 23.9–30.4% | 22.9–31.4% |
| 14–18 August 2017 | Kantar TNS TV2 |
28.5% | 26.4–30.7% | 25.8–31.3% | 25.3–31.8% | 24.4–32.9% |
| 17 August 2017 | InFact VG |
30.4% | 29.2–31.8% | 28.8–32.2% | 28.5–32.5% | 27.9–33.1% |
| 15 August 2017 | InFact Arbeiderpartiet |
31.3% | 29.4–33.2% | 28.9–33.7% | 28.5–34.2% | 27.6–35.1% |
| 8–14 August 2017 | Norstat NRK |
27.1% | 25.3–29.0% | 24.8–29.5% | 24.3–30.0% | 23.5–30.9% |
| 7–11 August 2017 | Kantar TNS TV2 |
30.3% | 28.2–32.5% | 27.6–33.1% | 27.1–33.7% | 26.1–34.8% |
| 8–10 August 2017 | Respons Analyse Aftenposten and Bergens Tidende |
28.1% | 26.3–30.0% | 25.8–30.5% | 25.4–31.0% | 24.6–31.9% |
| 1–7 August 2017 | Opinion Perduco Avisenes Nyhetsbyrå |
30.0% | 27.8–32.3% | 27.2–33.0% | 26.7–33.6% | 25.7–34.7% |
| 1–2 August 2017 | Norfakta Nationen and Klassekampen |
31.9% | 30.1–33.9% | 29.6–34.4% | 29.1–34.9% | 28.3–35.8% |
| 1–2 August 2017 | InFact VG |
30.0% | 28.7–31.4% | 28.3–31.7% | 28.0–32.1% | 27.4–32.7% |
| 4–5 July 2017 | Norfakta Nationen and Klassekampen |
32.2% | 30.1–34.4% | 29.5–35.0% | 29.0–35.6% | 28.1–36.7% |
| 3–4 July 2017 | InFact VG |
31.8% | 30.5–33.2% | 30.2–33.6% | 29.8–33.9% | 29.2–34.6% |
| 20–26 June 2017 | Sentio Dagens Næringsliv |
30.2% | 28.1–32.5% | 27.5–33.2% | 27.0–33.7% | 26.0–34.8% |
| 20–26 June 2017 | Norstat Vårt Land |
30.6% | 28.7–32.6% | 28.2–33.2% | 27.7–33.7% | 26.9–34.6% |
| 19–21 June 2017 | Ipsos MMI Dagbladet |
31.7% | 29.9–33.7% | 29.4–34.2% | 28.9–34.7% | 28.1–35.6% |
| 12–16 June 2017 | Kantar TNS TV2 |
32.2% | 30.1–34.5% | 29.5–35.2% | 28.9–35.7% | 27.9–36.8% |
| 9–14 June 2017 | Respons Analyse Aftenposten and Bergens Tidende |
31.6% | 29.5–33.9% | 28.9–34.5% | 28.4–35.1% | 27.4–36.2% |
| 6–12 June 2017 | Opinion Perduco Avisenes Nyhetsbyrå |
32.4% | 30.2–34.8% | 29.6–35.5% | 29.0–36.1% | 28.0–37.2% |
| 6–7 June 2017 | Norfakta Nationen and Klassekampen |
28.5% | 26.7–30.4% | 26.2–30.9% | 25.8–31.4% | 24.9–32.3% |
| 2–7 June 2017 | InFact VG |
32.3% | 31.0–33.7% | 30.6–34.0% | 30.3–34.4% | 29.7–35.0% |
| 30 May–5 June 2017 | Norstat NRK |
32.9% | 31.0–35.0% | 30.5–35.5% | 30.0–36.0% | 29.1–37.0% |
Probability Mass Function
Seats
Last result: 55 seats (General Election of 8–9 September 2013)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Pollster/Media | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 49 | 45–53 | 44–54 | 44–55 | 42–56 |
| 4–9 September 2017 | Kantar TNS TV2 |
51 | 48–54 | 48–54 | 47–54 | 47–56 |
| 5–8 September 2017 | Kantar TNS TV2 |
52 | 49–54 | 49–56 | 48–57 | 47–58 |
| 5–7 September 2017 | Opinion Perduco Avisenes Nyhetsbyrå |
48 | 45–53 | 45–54 | 44–55 | 42–56 |
| 4–7 September 2017 | Kantar TNS TV2 |
51 | 49–54 | 48–55 | 47–55 | 46–56 |
| 7 September 2017 | InFact VG |
52 | 49–54 | 47–54 | 46–55 | 46–56 |
| 4–6 September 2017 | Respons Analyse Aftenposten, Bergens Tidende and Adresseavisen |
48 | 44–51 | 43–52 | 42–53 | 41–54 |
| 5–6 September 2017 | Norfakta Nationen and Klassekampen |
48 | 44–52 | 44–53 | 44–54 | 40–56 |
| 1–6 September 2017 | Kantar TNS TV2 |
49 | 47–52 | 46–53 | 46–54 | 44–55 |
| 4–6 September 2017 | Ipsos MMI Dagbladet |
50 | 46–53 | 46–54 | 45–55 | 44–57 |
| 31 August–5 September 2017 | Kantar TNS TV2 |
50 | 48–53 | 47–54 | 47–55 | 46–57 |
| 31 August–4 September 2017 | Norstat NRK |
47 | 45–50 | 44–51 | 43–52 | 42–54 |
| 30 August–4 September 2017 | Kantar TNS TV2 |
49 | 46–51 | 45–53 | 45–53 | 44–55 |
| 4 September 2017 | InFact VG |
54 | 51–57 | 51–58 | 50–58 | 49–59 |
| 29 August–1 September 2017 | Kantar TNS TV2 |
49 | 46–52 | 45–53 | 45–53 | 44–54 |
| 28–31 August 2017 | Kantar TNS TV2 |
50 | 47–54 | 47–55 | 46–55 | 45–58 |
| 31 August 2017 | InFact VG |
54 | 51–55 | 50–56 | 50–57 | 48–60 |
| 28–30 August 2017 | Respons Analyse Aftenposten and Bergens Tidende |
48 | 44–51 | 44–52 | 43–53 | 43–54 |
| 25–30 August 2017 | Kantar TNS TV2 |
49 | 47–52 | 46–52 | 45–54 | 44–56 |
| 24–29 August 2017 | Kantar TNS TV2 |
48 | 45–50 | 44–51 | 43–52 | 42–53 |
| 22–28 August 2017 | Norstat Vårt Land |
47 | 44–51 | 43–51 | 42–52 | 40–54 |
| 24–28 August 2017 | Norstat NRK |
45 | 42–48 | 41–49 | 40–49 | 38–51 |
| 22–28 August 2017 | Kantar TNS TV2 |
49 | 46–52 | 45–53 | 44–54 | 43–55 |
| 21–25 August 2017 | Kantar TNS TV2 |
49 | 46–52 | 46–53 | 45–53 | 43–55 |
| 18–23 August 2017 | Respons Analyse Aftenposten, Bergens Tidende and Adresseavisen |
50 | 46–54 | 46–55 | 45–56 | 44–58 |
| 18–23 August 2017 | Kantar TNS TV2 |
51 | 48–54 | 47–55 | 46–57 | 45–58 |
| 21–23 August 2017 | Ipsos MMI Dagbladet |
54 | 51–57 | 50–58 | 50–60 | 47–62 |
| 23 August 2017 | InFact VG |
51 | 48–54 | 48–54 | 47–55 | 45–57 |
| 15–21 August 2017 | Norstat NRK |
53 | 49–57 | 49–59 | 48–60 | 46–62 |
| 15–20 August 2017 | Sentio Dagens Næringsliv |
49 | 45–53 | 45–55 | 44–55 | 42–59 |
| 14–18 August 2017 | Kantar TNS TV2 |
53 | 49–57 | 47–58 | 46–59 | 45–61 |
| 17 August 2017 | InFact VG |
56 | 54–61 | 53–61 | 53–62 | 51–63 |
| 15 August 2017 | InFact Arbeiderpartiet |
58 | 53–63 | 53–64 | 52–65 | 51–66 |
| 8–14 August 2017 | Norstat NRK |
49 | 46–53 | 46–54 | 45–54 | 44–56 |
| 7–11 August 2017 | Kantar TNS TV2 |
55 | 51–60 | 50–62 | 49–63 | 47–65 |
| 8–10 August 2017 | Respons Analyse Aftenposten and Bergens Tidende |
52 | 48–55 | 47–56 | 47–57 | 45–60 |
| 1–7 August 2017 | Opinion Perduco Avisenes Nyhetsbyrå |
55 | 50–60 | 50–62 | 48–63 | 46–65 |
| 1–2 August 2017 | Norfakta Nationen and Klassekampen |
59 | 55–63 | 54–64 | 53–65 | 51–67 |
| 1–2 August 2017 | InFact VG |
56 | 52–58 | 52–59 | 52–60 | 50–62 |
| 4–5 July 2017 | Norfakta Nationen and Klassekampen |
58 | 54–63 | 53–64 | 52–65 | 51–68 |
| 3–4 July 2017 | InFact VG |
60 | 56–63 | 55–63 | 55–64 | 54–65 |
| 20–26 June 2017 | Sentio Dagens Næringsliv |
57 | 51–62 | 50–63 | 50–64 | 48–67 |
| 20–26 June 2017 | Norstat Vårt Land |
55 | 52–61 | 51–61 | 50–63 | 49–66 |
| 19–21 June 2017 | Ipsos MMI Dagbladet |
58 | 55–63 | 54–65 | 52–65 | 51–67 |
| 12–16 June 2017 | Kantar TNS TV2 |
60 | 55–65 | 55–66 | 53–67 | 51–69 |
| 9–14 June 2017 | Respons Analyse Aftenposten and Bergens Tidende |
58 | 54–62 | 53–64 | 52–65 | 50–68 |
| 6–12 June 2017 | Opinion Perduco Avisenes Nyhetsbyrå |
58 | 54–64 | 53–65 | 52–66 | 50–69 |
| 6–7 June 2017 | Norfakta Nationen and Klassekampen |
52 | 49–56 | 48–57 | 47–58 | 45–61 |
| 2–7 June 2017 | InFact VG |
61 | 58–64 | 57–65 | 56–65 | 55–67 |
| 30 May–5 June 2017 | Norstat NRK |
60 | 56–65 | 55–66 | 54–67 | 52–69 |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function for the poll average for Arbeiderpartiet.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 41 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 42 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 43 | 1.1% | 98.9% | |
| 44 | 3% | 98% | |
| 45 | 8% | 95% | |
| 46 | 8% | 87% | |
| 47 | 9% | 79% | |
| 48 | 12% | 70% | |
| 49 | 9% | 58% | Median |
| 50 | 12% | 48% | |
| 51 | 12% | 36% | |
| 52 | 10% | 24% | |
| 53 | 6% | 14% | |
| 54 | 5% | 8% | |
| 55 | 2% | 3% | Last Result |
| 56 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 57 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% |