Arbeiderpartiet

Voting Intentions | Seats

Voting Intentions

Last result: 30.8% (General Election of 8–9 September 2013)

Confidence Intervals

Period Pollster/Media Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
4–9 September 2017 Kantar TNS
TV2
28.1% 26.9–29.3% 26.6–29.6% 26.3–29.9% 25.8–30.5%
5–8 September 2017 Kantar TNS
TV2
28.6% 27.2–30.1% 26.8–30.5% 26.5–30.8% 25.8–31.6%
5–7 September 2017 Opinion Perduco
Avisenes Nyhetsbyrå
26.4% 24.4–28.5% 23.9–29.1% 23.4–29.6% 22.5–30.6%
4–7 September 2017 Kantar TNS
TV2
28.1% 26.7–29.5% 26.3–29.9% 25.9–30.3% 25.3–31.0%
7 September 2017 InFact
VG
28.0% 26.8–29.3% 26.4–29.6% 26.1–29.9% 25.6–30.6%
4–6 September 2017 Respons Analyse
Aftenposten, Bergens Tidende and Adresseavisen
25.6% 23.9–27.4% 23.4–28.0% 23.0–28.4% 22.2–29.3%
5–6 September 2017 Norfakta
Nationen and Klassekampen
26.3% 24.4–28.4% 23.8–29.0% 23.4–29.5% 22.5–30.5%
1–6 September 2017 Kantar TNS
TV2
27.0% 25.6–28.5% 25.2–28.9% 24.9–29.3% 24.2–30.0%
4–6 September 2017 Ipsos MMI
Dagbladet
27.2% 25.4–29.1% 24.9–29.6% 24.4–30.1% 23.6–31.0%
31 August–5 September 2017 Kantar TNS
TV2
27.5% 26.1–29.0% 25.7–29.4% 25.4–29.7% 24.7–30.5%
31 August–4 September 2017 Norstat
NRK
25.8% 24.2–27.5% 23.8–28.0% 23.4–28.4% 22.7–29.2%
30 August–4 September 2017 Kantar TNS
TV2
26.5% 25.1–28.0% 24.7–28.5% 24.4–28.8% 23.7–29.6%
4 September 2017 InFact
VG
29.3% 28.0–30.6% 27.7–31.0% 27.4–31.3% 26.8–31.9%
29 August–1 September 2017 Kantar TNS
TV2
26.1% 24.7–27.5% 24.3–28.0% 24.0–28.3% 23.4–29.0%
28–31 August 2017 Kantar TNS
TV2
27.1% 25.7–28.5% 25.3–28.9% 24.9–29.3% 24.3–30.0%
31 August 2017 InFact
VG
29.0% 27.7–30.3% 27.4–30.7% 27.1–31.0% 26.4–31.6%
28–30 August 2017 Respons Analyse
Aftenposten and Bergens Tidende
26.1% 24.4–28.0% 23.9–28.5% 23.5–29.0% 22.7–29.9%
25–30 August 2017 Kantar TNS
TV2
26.7% 25.3–28.2% 25.0–28.6% 24.6–28.9% 24.0–29.6%
24–29 August 2017 Kantar TNS
TV2
25.7% 24.2–27.2% 23.8–27.6% 23.5–28.0% 22.8–28.8%
22–28 August 2017 Norstat
Vårt Land
25.6% 23.9–27.5% 23.4–28.1% 22.9–28.5% 22.1–29.5%
24–28 August 2017 Norstat
NRK
24.4% 22.7–26.2% 22.2–26.7% 21.8–27.2% 21.0–28.1%
22–28 August 2017 Kantar TNS
TV2
26.5% 25.1–28.0% 24.7–28.4% 24.3–28.8% 23.7–29.5%
21–25 August 2017 Kantar TNS
TV2
26.8% 25.2–28.3% 24.8–28.8% 24.4–29.2% 23.7–30.0%
18–23 August 2017 Respons Analyse
Aftenposten, Bergens Tidende and Adresseavisen
27.3% 25.5–29.2% 25.0–29.7% 24.6–30.1% 23.8–31.1%
18–23 August 2017 Kantar TNS
TV2
27.9% 26.2–29.8% 25.7–30.3% 25.3–30.7% 24.5–31.6%
21–23 August 2017 Ipsos MMI
Dagbladet
29.5% 27.6–31.5% 27.1–32.0% 26.7–32.5% 25.8–33.5%
23 August 2017 InFact
VG
27.6% 26.3–28.9% 26.0–29.2% 25.7–29.6% 25.1–30.2%
15–21 August 2017 Norstat
NRK
29.0% 27.0–31.2% 26.4–31.8% 25.9–32.3% 25.0–33.3%
15–20 August 2017 Sentio
Dagens Næringsliv
27.0% 24.9–29.2% 24.4–29.8% 23.9–30.4% 22.9–31.4%
14–18 August 2017 Kantar TNS
TV2
28.5% 26.4–30.7% 25.8–31.3% 25.3–31.8% 24.4–32.9%
17 August 2017 InFact
VG
30.4% 29.2–31.8% 28.8–32.2% 28.5–32.5% 27.9–33.1%
15 August 2017 InFact
Arbeiderpartiet
31.3% 29.4–33.2% 28.9–33.7% 28.5–34.2% 27.6–35.1%
8–14 August 2017 Norstat
NRK
27.1% 25.3–29.0% 24.8–29.5% 24.3–30.0% 23.5–30.9%
7–11 August 2017 Kantar TNS
TV2
30.3% 28.2–32.5% 27.6–33.1% 27.1–33.7% 26.1–34.8%
8–10 August 2017 Respons Analyse
Aftenposten and Bergens Tidende
28.1% 26.3–30.0% 25.8–30.5% 25.4–31.0% 24.6–31.9%
1–7 August 2017 Opinion Perduco
Avisenes Nyhetsbyrå
30.0% 27.8–32.3% 27.2–33.0% 26.7–33.6% 25.7–34.7%
1–2 August 2017 Norfakta
Nationen and Klassekampen
31.9% 30.1–33.9% 29.6–34.4% 29.1–34.9% 28.3–35.8%
1–2 August 2017 InFact
VG
30.0% 28.7–31.4% 28.3–31.7% 28.0–32.1% 27.4–32.7%
4–5 July 2017 Norfakta
Nationen and Klassekampen
32.2% 30.1–34.4% 29.5–35.0% 29.0–35.6% 28.1–36.7%
3–4 July 2017 InFact
VG
31.8% 30.5–33.2% 30.2–33.6% 29.8–33.9% 29.2–34.6%
20–26 June 2017 Sentio
Dagens Næringsliv
30.2% 28.1–32.5% 27.5–33.2% 27.0–33.7% 26.0–34.8%
20–26 June 2017 Norstat
Vårt Land
30.6% 28.7–32.6% 28.2–33.2% 27.7–33.7% 26.9–34.6%
19–21 June 2017 Ipsos MMI
Dagbladet
31.7% 29.9–33.7% 29.4–34.2% 28.9–34.7% 28.1–35.6%
12–16 June 2017 Kantar TNS
TV2
32.2% 30.1–34.5% 29.5–35.2% 28.9–35.7% 27.9–36.8%
9–14 June 2017 Respons Analyse
Aftenposten and Bergens Tidende
31.6% 29.5–33.9% 28.9–34.5% 28.4–35.1% 27.4–36.2%
6–12 June 2017 Opinion Perduco
Avisenes Nyhetsbyrå
32.4% 30.2–34.8% 29.6–35.5% 29.0–36.1% 28.0–37.2%
6–7 June 2017 Norfakta
Nationen and Klassekampen
28.5% 26.7–30.4% 26.2–30.9% 25.8–31.4% 24.9–32.3%
2–7 June 2017 InFact
VG
32.3% 31.0–33.7% 30.6–34.0% 30.3–34.4% 29.7–35.0%
30 May–5 June 2017 Norstat
NRK
32.9% 31.0–35.0% 30.5–35.5% 30.0–36.0% 29.1–37.0%

Probability Mass Function

Seats

Last result: 55 seats (General Election of 8–9 September 2013)

Confidence Intervals

Period Pollster/Media Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 49 45–53 44–54 44–55 42–56
4–9 September 2017 Kantar TNS
TV2
51 48–54 48–54 47–54 47–56
5–8 September 2017 Kantar TNS
TV2
52 49–54 49–56 48–57 47–58
5–7 September 2017 Opinion Perduco
Avisenes Nyhetsbyrå
48 45–53 45–54 44–55 42–56
4–7 September 2017 Kantar TNS
TV2
51 49–54 48–55 47–55 46–56
7 September 2017 InFact
VG
52 49–54 47–54 46–55 46–56
4–6 September 2017 Respons Analyse
Aftenposten, Bergens Tidende and Adresseavisen
48 44–51 43–52 42–53 41–54
5–6 September 2017 Norfakta
Nationen and Klassekampen
48 44–52 44–53 44–54 40–56
1–6 September 2017 Kantar TNS
TV2
49 47–52 46–53 46–54 44–55
4–6 September 2017 Ipsos MMI
Dagbladet
50 46–53 46–54 45–55 44–57
31 August–5 September 2017 Kantar TNS
TV2
50 48–53 47–54 47–55 46–57
31 August–4 September 2017 Norstat
NRK
47 45–50 44–51 43–52 42–54
30 August–4 September 2017 Kantar TNS
TV2
49 46–51 45–53 45–53 44–55
4 September 2017 InFact
VG
54 51–57 51–58 50–58 49–59
29 August–1 September 2017 Kantar TNS
TV2
49 46–52 45–53 45–53 44–54
28–31 August 2017 Kantar TNS
TV2
50 47–54 47–55 46–55 45–58
31 August 2017 InFact
VG
54 51–55 50–56 50–57 48–60
28–30 August 2017 Respons Analyse
Aftenposten and Bergens Tidende
48 44–51 44–52 43–53 43–54
25–30 August 2017 Kantar TNS
TV2
49 47–52 46–52 45–54 44–56
24–29 August 2017 Kantar TNS
TV2
48 45–50 44–51 43–52 42–53
22–28 August 2017 Norstat
Vårt Land
47 44–51 43–51 42–52 40–54
24–28 August 2017 Norstat
NRK
45 42–48 41–49 40–49 38–51
22–28 August 2017 Kantar TNS
TV2
49 46–52 45–53 44–54 43–55
21–25 August 2017 Kantar TNS
TV2
49 46–52 46–53 45–53 43–55
18–23 August 2017 Respons Analyse
Aftenposten, Bergens Tidende and Adresseavisen
50 46–54 46–55 45–56 44–58
18–23 August 2017 Kantar TNS
TV2
51 48–54 47–55 46–57 45–58
21–23 August 2017 Ipsos MMI
Dagbladet
54 51–57 50–58 50–60 47–62
23 August 2017 InFact
VG
51 48–54 48–54 47–55 45–57
15–21 August 2017 Norstat
NRK
53 49–57 49–59 48–60 46–62
15–20 August 2017 Sentio
Dagens Næringsliv
49 45–53 45–55 44–55 42–59
14–18 August 2017 Kantar TNS
TV2
53 49–57 47–58 46–59 45–61
17 August 2017 InFact
VG
56 54–61 53–61 53–62 51–63
15 August 2017 InFact
Arbeiderpartiet
58 53–63 53–64 52–65 51–66
8–14 August 2017 Norstat
NRK
49 46–53 46–54 45–54 44–56
7–11 August 2017 Kantar TNS
TV2
55 51–60 50–62 49–63 47–65
8–10 August 2017 Respons Analyse
Aftenposten and Bergens Tidende
52 48–55 47–56 47–57 45–60
1–7 August 2017 Opinion Perduco
Avisenes Nyhetsbyrå
55 50–60 50–62 48–63 46–65
1–2 August 2017 Norfakta
Nationen and Klassekampen
59 55–63 54–64 53–65 51–67
1–2 August 2017 InFact
VG
56 52–58 52–59 52–60 50–62
4–5 July 2017 Norfakta
Nationen and Klassekampen
58 54–63 53–64 52–65 51–68
3–4 July 2017 InFact
VG
60 56–63 55–63 55–64 54–65
20–26 June 2017 Sentio
Dagens Næringsliv
57 51–62 50–63 50–64 48–67
20–26 June 2017 Norstat
Vårt Land
55 52–61 51–61 50–63 49–66
19–21 June 2017 Ipsos MMI
Dagbladet
58 55–63 54–65 52–65 51–67
12–16 June 2017 Kantar TNS
TV2
60 55–65 55–66 53–67 51–69
9–14 June 2017 Respons Analyse
Aftenposten and Bergens Tidende
58 54–62 53–64 52–65 50–68
6–12 June 2017 Opinion Perduco
Avisenes Nyhetsbyrå
58 54–64 53–65 52–66 50–69
6–7 June 2017 Norfakta
Nationen and Klassekampen
52 49–56 48–57 47–58 45–61
2–7 June 2017 InFact
VG
61 58–64 57–65 56–65 55–67
30 May–5 June 2017 Norstat
NRK
60 56–65 55–66 54–67 52–69

Probability Mass Function

The following table shows the probability mass function for the poll average for Arbeiderpartiet.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0% 100%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.2% 99.8%  
42 0.7% 99.6%  
43 1.1% 98.9%  
44 3% 98%  
45 8% 95%  
46 8% 87%  
47 9% 79%  
48 12% 70%  
49 9% 58% Median
50 12% 48%  
51 12% 36%  
52 10% 24%  
53 6% 14%  
54 5% 8%  
55 2% 3% Last Result
56 0.5% 0.9%  
57 0.3% 0.5%  
58 0.1% 0.2%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%