Senterpartiet
Voting Intentions
Last result: 5.5% (General Election of 8–9 September 2013)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Pollster/Media | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4–9 September 2017 | Kantar TNS TV2 |
10.2% | 9.4–11.0% | 9.2–11.2% | 9.1–11.5% | 8.7–11.9% |
| 5–8 September 2017 | Kantar TNS TV2 |
10.5% | 9.6–11.5% | 9.3–11.8% | 9.1–12.1% | 8.7–12.6% |
| 5–7 September 2017 | Opinion Perduco Avisenes Nyhetsbyrå |
8.6% | 7.4–10.0% | 7.1–10.4% | 6.8–10.8% | 6.3–11.5% |
| 4–7 September 2017 | Kantar TNS TV2 |
10.1% | 9.2–11.1% | 8.9–11.4% | 8.7–11.7% | 8.3–12.2% |
| 7 September 2017 | InFact VG |
10.7% | 9.9–11.6% | 9.7–11.9% | 9.5–12.1% | 9.1–12.5% |
| 4–6 September 2017 | Respons Analyse Aftenposten, Bergens Tidende and Adresseavisen |
9.9% | 8.8–11.2% | 8.5–11.6% | 8.2–11.9% | 7.7–12.6% |
| 5–6 September 2017 | Norfakta Nationen and Klassekampen |
10.5% | 9.2–12.0% | 8.8–12.4% | 8.5–12.8% | 8.0–13.5% |
| 1–6 September 2017 | Kantar TNS TV2 |
10.3% | 9.4–11.3% | 9.1–11.6% | 8.9–11.9% | 8.5–12.4% |
| 4–6 September 2017 | Ipsos MMI Dagbladet |
9.4% | 8.3–10.7% | 7.9–11.0% | 7.7–11.4% | 7.2–12.0% |
| 31 August–5 September 2017 | Kantar TNS TV2 |
9.6% | 8.7–10.6% | 8.5–10.9% | 8.2–11.1% | 7.8–11.6% |
| 31 August–4 September 2017 | Norstat NRK |
9.6% | 8.6–10.8% | 8.3–11.1% | 8.0–11.4% | 7.6–12.0% |
| 30 August–4 September 2017 | Kantar TNS TV2 |
10.9% | 10.0–12.0% | 9.7–12.3% | 9.4–12.6% | 9.0–13.1% |
| 4 September 2017 | InFact VG |
10.0% | 9.2–10.9% | 9.0–11.1% | 8.8–11.4% | 8.4–11.8% |
| 29 August–1 September 2017 | Kantar TNS TV2 |
11.0% | 10.0–12.1% | 9.8–12.4% | 9.6–12.6% | 9.1–13.2% |
| 28–31 August 2017 | Kantar TNS TV2 |
11.1% | 10.1–12.2% | 9.9–12.5% | 9.6–12.7% | 9.2–13.3% |
| 31 August 2017 | InFact VG |
11.2% | 10.3–12.1% | 10.1–12.4% | 9.9–12.6% | 9.5–13.1% |
| 28–30 August 2017 | Respons Analyse Aftenposten and Bergens Tidende |
8.8% | 7.7–10.0% | 7.4–10.4% | 7.2–10.7% | 6.7–11.3% |
| 25–30 August 2017 | Kantar TNS TV2 |
11.1% | 10.2–12.2% | 9.9–12.5% | 9.6–12.7% | 9.2–13.3% |
| 24–29 August 2017 | Kantar TNS TV2 |
10.4% | 9.4–11.5% | 9.2–11.8% | 8.9–12.1% | 8.5–12.7% |
| 22–28 August 2017 | Norstat Vårt Land |
10.3% | 9.1–11.7% | 8.8–12.1% | 8.5–12.4% | 8.0–13.1% |
| 24–28 August 2017 | Norstat NRK |
10.6% | 9.5–12.0% | 9.1–12.4% | 8.9–12.7% | 8.3–13.4% |
| 22–28 August 2017 | Kantar TNS TV2 |
11.2% | 10.2–12.3% | 10.0–12.7% | 9.7–12.9% | 9.3–13.5% |
| 21–25 August 2017 | Kantar TNS TV2 |
11.2% | 10.1–12.4% | 9.8–12.7% | 9.6–13.0% | 9.1–13.6% |
| 18–23 August 2017 | Respons Analyse Aftenposten, Bergens Tidende and Adresseavisen |
10.8% | 9.6–12.2% | 9.3–12.5% | 9.0–12.9% | 8.5–13.6% |
| 18–23 August 2017 | Kantar TNS TV2 |
12.1% | 10.9–13.5% | 10.6–13.9% | 10.3–14.3% | 9.8–14.9% |
| 21–23 August 2017 | Ipsos MMI Dagbladet |
10.0% | 8.8–11.4% | 8.5–11.7% | 8.2–12.1% | 7.7–12.8% |
| 23 August 2017 | InFact VG |
12.0% | 11.1–13.0% | 10.9–13.2% | 10.7–13.5% | 10.2–14.0% |
| 15–21 August 2017 | Norstat NRK |
9.5% | 8.3–11.0% | 8.0–11.4% | 7.7–11.8% | 7.1–12.6% |
| 15–20 August 2017 | Sentio Dagens Næringsliv |
11.0% | 9.7–12.7% | 9.3–13.2% | 8.9–13.6% | 8.3–14.4% |
| 14–18 August 2017 | Kantar TNS TV2 |
10.4% | 9.1–12.0% | 8.7–12.5% | 8.4–12.9% | 7.8–13.7% |
| 17 August 2017 | InFact VG |
10.9% | 10.0–11.8% | 9.8–12.1% | 9.6–12.3% | 9.2–12.8% |
| 15 August 2017 | InFact Arbeiderpartiet |
11.0% | 9.8–12.4% | 9.5–12.7% | 9.2–13.1% | 8.7–13.8% |
| 8–14 August 2017 | Norstat NRK |
9.2% | 8.0–10.5% | 7.7–10.8% | 7.5–11.2% | 7.0–11.8% |
| 7–11 August 2017 | Kantar TNS TV2 |
12.6% | 11.1–14.3% | 10.7–14.7% | 10.4–15.2% | 9.7–16.0% |
| 8–10 August 2017 | Respons Analyse Aftenposten and Bergens Tidende |
10.1% | 9.0–11.4% | 8.6–11.8% | 8.4–12.1% | 7.9–12.8% |
| 1–7 August 2017 | Opinion Perduco Avisenes Nyhetsbyrå |
10.8% | 9.4–12.5% | 9.1–13.0% | 8.7–13.4% | 8.1–14.2% |
| 1–2 August 2017 | Norfakta Nationen and Klassekampen |
9.5% | 8.4–10.7% | 8.0–11.1% | 7.8–11.4% | 7.3–12.1% |
| 1–2 August 2017 | InFact VG |
11.9% | 11.0–12.9% | 10.8–13.2% | 10.6–13.4% | 10.2–13.9% |
| 4–5 July 2017 | Norfakta Nationen and Klassekampen |
9.7% | 8.5–11.2% | 8.1–11.6% | 7.8–12.0% | 7.3–12.8% |
| 3–4 July 2017 | InFact VG |
13.0% | 12.1–14.0% | 11.8–14.3% | 11.6–14.5% | 11.2–15.0% |
| 20–26 June 2017 | Sentio Dagens Næringsliv |
11.3% | 9.9–12.9% | 9.5–13.4% | 9.1–13.8% | 8.5–14.6% |
| 20–26 June 2017 | Norstat Vårt Land |
11.7% | 10.4–13.1% | 10.1–13.5% | 9.8–13.9% | 9.2–14.6% |
| 19–21 June 2017 | Ipsos MMI Dagbladet |
12.2% | 11.0–13.7% | 10.7–14.1% | 10.3–14.4% | 9.8–15.1% |
| 12–16 June 2017 | Kantar TNS TV2 |
14.5% | 12.9–16.3% | 12.5–16.8% | 12.1–17.2% | 11.4–18.1% |
| 9–14 June 2017 | Respons Analyse Aftenposten and Bergens Tidende |
9.8% | 8.6–11.4% | 8.2–11.8% | 7.9–12.2% | 7.3–13.0% |
| 6–12 June 2017 | Opinion Perduco Avisenes Nyhetsbyrå |
12.7% | 11.2–14.5% | 10.8–15.0% | 10.4–15.5% | 9.7–16.4% |
| 6–7 June 2017 | Norfakta Nationen and Klassekampen |
12.1% | 10.9–13.5% | 10.5–13.9% | 10.2–14.3% | 9.6–15.0% |
| 2–7 June 2017 | InFact VG |
11.8% | 10.9–12.7% | 10.7–13.0% | 10.5–13.2% | 10.1–13.7% |
| 30 May–5 June 2017 | Norstat NRK |
11.6% | 10.4–13.1% | 10.0–13.5% | 9.7–13.9% | 9.1–14.6% |
Probability Mass Function
Seats
Last result: 10 seats (General Election of 8–9 September 2013)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Pollster/Media | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 18 | 14–20 | 13–22 | 13–22 | 12–24 |
| 4–9 September 2017 | Kantar TNS TV2 |
18 | 16–20 | 16–20 | 15–20 | 15–21 |
| 5–8 September 2017 | Kantar TNS TV2 |
19 | 17–21 | 16–22 | 16–22 | 15–23 |
| 5–7 September 2017 | Opinion Perduco Avisenes Nyhetsbyrå |
14 | 13–17 | 12–18 | 11–19 | 11–20 |
| 4–7 September 2017 | Kantar TNS TV2 |
18 | 16–20 | 16–20 | 15–21 | 14–22 |
| 7 September 2017 | InFact VG |
18 | 16–20 | 16–21 | 16–21 | 15–22 |
| 4–6 September 2017 | Respons Analyse Aftenposten, Bergens Tidende and Adresseavisen |
18 | 15–20 | 15–21 | 14–22 | 13–23 |
| 5–6 September 2017 | Norfakta Nationen and Klassekampen |
18 | 15–22 | 15–22 | 14–23 | 13–24 |
| 1–6 September 2017 | Kantar TNS TV2 |
18 | 17–20 | 16–21 | 15–21 | 15–23 |
| 4–6 September 2017 | Ipsos MMI Dagbladet |
17 | 14–19 | 13–19 | 13–20 | 12–22 |
| 31 August–5 September 2017 | Kantar TNS TV2 |
17 | 15–19 | 14–20 | 14–20 | 13–21 |
| 31 August–4 September 2017 | Norstat NRK |
17 | 15–19 | 14–20 | 13–21 | 13–22 |
| 30 August–4 September 2017 | Kantar TNS TV2 |
19 | 17–22 | 17–22 | 16–23 | 15–24 |
| 4 September 2017 | InFact VG |
18 | 16–19 | 16–20 | 15–20 | 14–21 |
| 29 August–1 September 2017 | Kantar TNS TV2 |
21 | 18–23 | 18–23 | 17–23 | 16–24 |
| 28–31 August 2017 | Kantar TNS TV2 |
20 | 19–22 | 18–23 | 18–24 | 17–25 |
| 31 August 2017 | InFact VG |
20 | 18–22 | 18–22 | 17–23 | 17–24 |
| 28–30 August 2017 | Respons Analyse Aftenposten and Bergens Tidende |
15 | 12–17 | 12–18 | 12–18 | 11–19 |
| 25–30 August 2017 | Kantar TNS TV2 |
20 | 18–22 | 18–23 | 17–23 | 16–24 |
| 24–29 August 2017 | Kantar TNS TV2 |
19 | 17–21 | 16–22 | 16–22 | 15–23 |
| 22–28 August 2017 | Norstat Vårt Land |
18 | 15–20 | 15–21 | 14–22 | 13–23 |
| 24–28 August 2017 | Norstat NRK |
20 | 17–21 | 16–22 | 16–23 | 15–24 |
| 22–28 August 2017 | Kantar TNS TV2 |
21 | 19–23 | 18–23 | 17–24 | 16–25 |
| 21–25 August 2017 | Kantar TNS TV2 |
20 | 18–23 | 18–23 | 17–24 | 17–25 |
| 18–23 August 2017 | Respons Analyse Aftenposten, Bergens Tidende and Adresseavisen |
19 | 17–22 | 17–23 | 16–23 | 15–25 |
| 18–23 August 2017 | Kantar TNS TV2 |
22 | 20–25 | 19–26 | 19–26 | 18–27 |
| 21–23 August 2017 | Ipsos MMI Dagbladet |
18 | 16–20 | 15–21 | 15–22 | 14–23 |
| 23 August 2017 | InFact VG |
22 | 19–23 | 19–24 | 19–24 | 18–25 |
| 15–21 August 2017 | Norstat NRK |
17 | 15–19 | 14–19 | 13–20 | 12–22 |
| 15–20 August 2017 | Sentio Dagens Næringsliv |
19 | 16–23 | 15–23 | 15–24 | 13–25 |
| 14–18 August 2017 | Kantar TNS TV2 |
19 | 16–22 | 15–23 | 15–23 | 13–25 |
| 17 August 2017 | InFact VG |
19 | 18–21 | 17–22 | 17–22 | 16–23 |
| 15 August 2017 | InFact Arbeiderpartiet |
20 | 17–22 | 17–23 | 16–24 | 15–25 |
| 8–14 August 2017 | Norstat NRK |
16 | 13–19 | 13–19 | 13–20 | 12–21 |
| 7–11 August 2017 | Kantar TNS TV2 |
23 | 20–27 | 19–28 | 18–28 | 17–30 |
| 8–10 August 2017 | Respons Analyse Aftenposten and Bergens Tidende |
18 | 16–21 | 15–22 | 15–22 | 14–24 |
| 1–7 August 2017 | Opinion Perduco Avisenes Nyhetsbyrå |
20 | 16–23 | 16–24 | 15–24 | 14–26 |
| 1–2 August 2017 | Norfakta Nationen and Klassekampen |
18 | 15–20 | 15–21 | 14–21 | 13–22 |
| 1–2 August 2017 | InFact VG |
22 | 20–23 | 19–24 | 19–24 | 18–26 |
| 4–5 July 2017 | Norfakta Nationen and Klassekampen |
18 | 15–20 | 15–21 | 14–21 | 13–23 |
| 3–4 July 2017 | InFact VG |
24 | 22–26 | 21–27 | 21–27 | 20–28 |
| 20–26 June 2017 | Sentio Dagens Næringsliv |
20 | 17–24 | 17–25 | 16–25 | 14–27 |
| 20–26 June 2017 | Norstat Vårt Land |
21 | 19–24 | 18–25 | 17–26 | 16–27 |
| 19–21 June 2017 | Ipsos MMI Dagbladet |
23 | 20–25 | 19–26 | 18–27 | 18–28 |
| 12–16 June 2017 | Kantar TNS TV2 |
27 | 24–31 | 23–32 | 22–32 | 21–34 |
| 9–14 June 2017 | Respons Analyse Aftenposten and Bergens Tidende |
18 | 16–20 | 15–21 | 14–22 | 13–24 |
| 6–12 June 2017 | Opinion Perduco Avisenes Nyhetsbyrå |
23 | 20–26 | 19–27 | 18–28 | 17–30 |
| 6–7 June 2017 | Norfakta Nationen and Klassekampen |
22 | 20–25 | 19–26 | 18–26 | 17–28 |
| 2–7 June 2017 | InFact VG |
22 | 20–24 | 20–24 | 19–25 | 18–26 |
| 30 May–5 June 2017 | Norstat NRK |
21 | 19–24 | 18–25 | 18–26 | 16–26 |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function for the poll average for Senterpartiet.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 11 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 12 | 1.1% | 99.5% | |
| 13 | 4% | 98% | |
| 14 | 5% | 94% | |
| 15 | 7% | 89% | |
| 16 | 13% | 82% | |
| 17 | 15% | 69% | |
| 18 | 26% | 54% | Median |
| 19 | 11% | 29% | |
| 20 | 8% | 18% | |
| 21 | 3% | 10% | |
| 22 | 4% | 6% | |
| 23 | 2% | 2% | |
| 24 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 25 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |