Fremskrittspartiet

Voting Intentions | Seats

Voting Intentions

Last result: 16.3% (General Election of 8–9 September 2013)

Confidence Intervals

Period Pollster/Media Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
4–9 September 2017 Kantar TNS
TV2		 14.6% 13.7–15.5% 13.5–15.8% 13.2–16.0% 12.8–16.5%
5–8 September 2017 Kantar TNS
TV2		 15.2% 14.1–16.4% 13.8–16.7% 13.5–17.0% 13.0–17.6%
5–7 September 2017 Opinion Perduco
Avisenes Nyhetsbyrå		 15.2% 13.7–17.0% 13.3–17.5% 12.9–17.9% 12.2–18.8%
4–7 September 2017 Kantar TNS
TV2		 15.2% 14.1–16.4% 13.8–16.7% 13.5–17.0% 13.0–17.6%
7 September 2017 InFact
VG		 12.6% 11.7–13.6% 11.5–13.9% 11.3–14.1% 10.9–14.6%
4–6 September 2017 Respons Analyse
Aftenposten, Bergens Tidende and Adresseavisen		 14.3% 13.0–15.8% 12.6–16.2% 12.3–16.6% 11.6–17.4%
5–6 September 2017 Norfakta
Nationen and Klassekampen		 13.8% 12.4–15.5% 12.0–16.0% 11.6–16.4% 11.0–17.2%
1–6 September 2017 Kantar TNS
TV2		 14.8% 13.7–16.0% 13.4–16.3% 13.1–16.6% 12.6–17.2%
4–6 September 2017 Ipsos MMI
Dagbladet		 15.2% 13.8–16.8% 13.4–17.2% 13.1–17.6% 12.5–18.4%
31 August–5 September 2017 Kantar TNS
TV2		 14.7% 13.6–15.9% 13.3–16.2% 13.1–16.5% 12.6–17.1%
31 August–4 September 2017 Norstat
NRK		 17.0% 15.7–18.5% 15.3–18.9% 15.0–19.3% 14.3–20.0%
30 August–4 September 2017 Kantar TNS
TV2		 14.3% 13.2–15.5% 12.9–15.9% 12.6–16.2% 12.1–16.8%
4 September 2017 InFact
VG		 12.8% 11.9–13.8% 11.6–14.1% 11.4–14.3% 11.0–14.8%
29 August–1 September 2017 Kantar TNS
TV2		 14.7% 13.6–15.9% 13.3–16.2% 13.0–16.5% 12.5–17.1%
28–31 August 2017 Kantar TNS
TV2		 14.8% 13.7–16.0% 13.4–16.4% 13.2–16.7% 12.7–17.3%
31 August 2017 InFact
VG		 13.0% 12.1–14.0% 11.8–14.3% 11.6–14.5% 11.2–15.0%
28–30 August 2017 Respons Analyse
Aftenposten and Bergens Tidende		 16.6% 15.1–18.2% 14.7–18.6% 14.4–19.0% 13.7–19.8%
25–30 August 2017 Kantar TNS
TV2		 15.4% 14.3–16.6% 14.0–17.0% 13.7–17.3% 13.2–17.9%
24–29 August 2017 Kantar TNS
TV2		 16.3% 15.1–17.6% 14.8–18.0% 14.5–18.4% 13.9–19.0%
22–28 August 2017 Norstat
Vårt Land		 16.7% 15.3–18.4% 14.8–18.9% 14.5–19.3% 13.8–20.1%
24–28 August 2017 Norstat
NRK		 15.0% 13.6–16.5% 13.2–17.0% 12.9–17.3% 12.3–18.1%
22–28 August 2017 Kantar TNS
TV2		 16.0% 14.9–17.3% 14.5–17.7% 14.3–18.0% 13.7–18.6%
21–25 August 2017 Kantar TNS
TV2		 16.7% 15.4–18.1% 15.1–18.5% 14.8–18.8% 14.2–19.5%
18–23 August 2017 Respons Analyse
Aftenposten, Bergens Tidende and Adresseavisen		 15.5% 14.1–17.1% 13.7–17.5% 13.4–17.9% 12.7–18.7%
18–23 August 2017 Kantar TNS
TV2		 15.4% 14.1–16.9% 13.7–17.3% 13.4–17.7% 12.8–18.5%
21–23 August 2017 Ipsos MMI
Dagbladet		 15.0% 13.6–16.6% 13.2–17.1% 12.9–17.5% 12.2–18.3%
23 August 2017 InFact
VG		 12.0% 11.1–13.0% 10.9–13.2% 10.7–13.5% 10.2–14.0%
15–21 August 2017 Norstat
NRK		 14.2% 12.7–15.9% 12.3–16.4% 11.9–16.8% 11.2–17.7%
15–20 August 2017 Sentio
Dagens Næringsliv		 13.1% 11.6–14.9% 11.2–15.4% 10.9–15.8% 10.2–16.7%
14–18 August 2017 Kantar TNS
TV2		 12.7% 11.3–14.4% 10.9–14.9% 10.5–15.3% 9.9–16.2%
17 August 2017 InFact
VG		 12.1% 11.2–13.0% 10.9–13.3% 10.7–13.6% 10.3–14.1%
15 August 2017 InFact
Arbeiderpartiet		 12.2% 10.9–13.6% 10.6–14.0% 10.3–14.4% 9.7–15.1%
8–14 August 2017 Norstat
NRK		 16.7% 15.3–18.4% 14.8–18.8% 14.5–19.3% 13.8–20.1%
7–11 August 2017 Kantar TNS
TV2		 13.6% 12.1–15.4% 11.7–15.9% 11.4–16.3% 10.7–17.2%
8–10 August 2017 Respons Analyse
Aftenposten and Bergens Tidende		 13.6% 12.3–15.1% 11.9–15.5% 11.6–15.9% 11.0–16.6%
1–7 August 2017 Opinion Perduco
Avisenes Nyhetsbyrå		 12.3% 10.8–14.1% 10.4–14.5% 10.0–15.0% 9.4–15.9%
1–2 August 2017 Norfakta
Nationen and Klassekampen		 13.8% 12.5–15.3% 12.1–15.7% 11.8–16.1% 11.2–16.8%
1–2 August 2017 InFact
VG		 12.6% 11.7–13.6% 11.4–13.9% 11.2–14.1% 10.8–14.6%
4–5 July 2017 Norfakta
Nationen and Klassekampen		 14.7% 13.2–16.4% 12.8–16.9% 12.4–17.4% 11.7–18.2%
3–4 July 2017 InFact
VG		 11.9% 11.0–12.9% 10.8–13.2% 10.6–13.4% 10.2–13.9%
20–26 June 2017 Sentio
Dagens Næringsliv		 11.5% 10.1–13.2% 9.7–13.7% 9.4–14.1% 8.7–14.9%
20–26 June 2017 Norstat
Vårt Land		 15.2% 13.8–16.8% 13.4–17.3% 13.0–17.7% 12.4–18.4%
19–21 June 2017 Ipsos MMI
Dagbladet		 12.8% 11.6–14.3% 11.2–14.7% 10.9–15.1% 10.3–15.8%
12–16 June 2017 Kantar TNS
TV2		 13.7% 12.1–15.4% 11.7–15.9% 11.4–16.4% 10.7–17.2%
9–14 June 2017 Respons Analyse
Aftenposten and Bergens Tidende		 14.0% 12.5–15.8% 12.0–16.2% 11.7–16.7% 11.0–17.6%
6–12 June 2017 Opinion Perduco
Avisenes Nyhetsbyrå		 12.0% 10.5–13.7% 10.1–14.2% 9.8–14.7% 9.1–15.5%
6–7 June 2017 Norfakta
Nationen and Klassekampen		 14.4% 13.0–15.9% 12.7–16.3% 12.3–16.7% 11.7–17.5%
2–7 June 2017 InFact
VG		 12.5% 11.6–13.5% 11.4–13.8% 11.1–14.0% 10.7–14.5%
30 May–5 June 2017 Norstat
NRK		 14.0% 12.6–15.5% 12.2–16.0% 11.9–16.4% 11.3–17.1%

Probability Mass Function

Seats

Last result: 29 seats (General Election of 8–9 September 2013)

Confidence Intervals

Period Pollster/Media Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 27 21–31 20–32 20–33 19–35
4–9 September 2017 Kantar TNS
TV2		 28 25–28 24–29 24–29 23–30
5–8 September 2017 Kantar TNS
TV2		 28 26–29 25–30 24–31 23–32
5–7 September 2017 Opinion Perduco
Avisenes Nyhetsbyrå		 27 24–30 23–31 23–32 21–34
4–7 September 2017 Kantar TNS
TV2		 28 26–29 25–31 25–31 23–33
7 September 2017 InFact
VG		 22 20–25 20–26 20–26 18–27
4–6 September 2017 Respons Analyse
Aftenposten, Bergens Tidende and Adresseavisen		 26 24–29 23–30 22–31 20–32
5–6 September 2017 Norfakta
Nationen and Klassekampen		 25 21–28 20–29 20–29 18–31
1–6 September 2017 Kantar TNS
TV2		 28 25–29 24–29 23–30 23–32
4–6 September 2017 Ipsos MMI
Dagbladet		 28 25–31 24–31 23–32 22–33
31 August–5 September 2017 Kantar TNS
TV2		 28 25–29 24–30 23–30 22–32
31 August–4 September 2017 Norstat
NRK		 31 28–33 28–34 27–35 25–37
30 August–4 September 2017 Kantar TNS
TV2		 27 24–28 23–29 22–29 21–31
4 September 2017 InFact
VG		 23 21–26 21–27 20–28 19–28
29 August–1 September 2017 Kantar TNS
TV2		 27 25–29 24–30 24–30 23–32
28–31 August 2017 Kantar TNS
TV2		 28 26–31 25–31 25–31 23–33
31 August 2017 InFact
VG		 24 22–26 21–26 20–27 19–28
28–30 August 2017 Respons Analyse
Aftenposten and Bergens Tidende		 29 27–33 26–34 26–35 25–35
25–30 August 2017 Kantar TNS
TV2		 29 27–31 26–31 25–32 24–33
24–29 August 2017 Kantar TNS
TV2		 30 28–32 27–33 26–34 25–35
22–28 August 2017 Norstat
Vårt Land		 29 28–33 27–33 27–34 25–36
24–28 August 2017 Norstat
NRK		 28 25–30 24–31 23–31 22–33
22–28 August 2017 Kantar TNS
TV2		 30 27–32 26–33 26–33 25–34
21–25 August 2017 Kantar TNS
TV2		 30 29–32 28–32 28–33 26–35
18–23 August 2017 Respons Analyse
Aftenposten, Bergens Tidende and Adresseavisen		 28 26–31 25–32 24–33 23–34
18–23 August 2017 Kantar TNS
TV2		 28 26–31 26–32 25–32 23–34
21–23 August 2017 Ipsos MMI
Dagbladet		 28 25–30 24–31 23–32 22–34
23 August 2017 InFact
VG		 21 19–23 19–25 18–25 17–26
15–21 August 2017 Norstat
NRK		 27 24–29 23–29 22–31 19–33
15–20 August 2017 Sentio
Dagens Næringsliv		 23 20–27 19–28 19–28 17–30
14–18 August 2017 Kantar TNS
TV2		 23 20–27 19–27 18–28 17–29
17 August 2017 InFact
VG		 22 19–24 19–24 18–25 17–26
15 August 2017 InFact
Arbeiderpartiet		 22 19–25 18–26 18–27 17–28
8–14 August 2017 Norstat
NRK		 31 28–33 28–34 27–36 25–37
7–11 August 2017 Kantar TNS
TV2		 25 22–28 21–29 20–30 18–31
8–10 August 2017 Respons Analyse
Aftenposten and Bergens Tidende		 25 22–28 21–28 21–29 19–31
1–7 August 2017 Opinion Perduco
Avisenes Nyhetsbyrå		 22 19–26 18–27 17–28 16–29
1–2 August 2017 Norfakta
Nationen and Klassekampen		 25 23–29 22–29 21–30 20–31
1–2 August 2017 InFact
VG		 23 22–25 21–26 20–27 19–27
4–5 July 2017 Norfakta
Nationen and Klassekampen		 27 24–30 23–30 22–32 21–33
3–4 July 2017 InFact
VG		 22 20–24 19–25 18–25 18–26
20–26 June 2017 Sentio
Dagens Næringsliv		 21 18–24 17–26 16–27 15–28
20–26 June 2017 Norstat
Vårt Land		 28 25–31 24–32 23–33 22–34
19–21 June 2017 Ipsos MMI
Dagbladet		 24 21–26 20–28 19–28 18–30
12–16 June 2017 Kantar TNS
TV2		 25 23–28 22–29 21–30 20–32
9–14 June 2017 Respons Analyse
Aftenposten and Bergens Tidende		 25 22–29 22–30 21–30 20–32
6–12 June 2017 Opinion Perduco
Avisenes Nyhetsbyrå		 21 19–25 18–25 17–26 16–28
6–7 June 2017 Norfakta
Nationen and Klassekampen		 27 24–29 23–30 23–31 21–33
2–7 June 2017 InFact
VG		 23 21–25 20–26 20–26 19–27
30 May–5 June 2017 Norstat
NRK		 26 23–29 22–30 21–30 20–32

Probability Mass Function

The following table shows the probability mass function for the poll average for Fremskrittspartiet.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.3% 99.9%  
19 0.9% 99.6%  
20 5% 98.7%  
21 4% 93%  
22 8% 89%  
23 7% 81%  
24 7% 75%  
25 8% 68%  
26 10% 60%  
27 11% 50% Median
28 19% 39%  
29 6% 20% Last Result
30 4% 15%  
31 5% 11%  
32 3% 6%  
33 2% 3%  
34 0.7% 1.3%  
35 0.2% 0.5%  
36 0.2% 0.3%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%