Opinion Poll by Norstat for Vårt Land, 20–26 June 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 30.8% 30.6% 28.7–32.6% 28.2–33.2% 27.7–33.7% 26.9–34.6%
Høyre 26.8% 23.3% 21.6–25.2% 21.2–25.7% 20.7–26.2% 19.9–27.1%
Fremskrittspartiet 16.3% 15.2% 13.8–16.8% 13.4–17.3% 13.0–17.7% 12.4–18.4%
Senterpartiet 5.5% 11.7% 10.4–13.1% 10.1–13.5% 9.8–13.9% 9.2–14.6%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 4.1% 4.3% 3.5–5.3% 3.3–5.5% 3.2–5.8% 2.8–6.3%
Kristelig Folkeparti 5.6% 4.1% 3.4–5.0% 3.1–5.3% 3.0–5.5% 2.7–6.0%
Miljøpartiet de Grønne 2.8% 3.9% 3.2–4.8% 3.0–5.1% 2.8–5.3% 2.5–5.8%
Venstre 5.2% 3.4% 2.8–4.3% 2.6–4.6% 2.4–4.8% 2.1–5.3%
Rødt 1.1% 1.8% 1.4–2.5% 1.2–2.7% 1.1–2.9% 1.0–3.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 55 55 52–61 51–61 50–63 49–66
Høyre 48 42 39–46 38–47 37–48 36–50
Fremskrittspartiet 29 28 25–31 24–32 23–33 22–34
Senterpartiet 10 21 19–24 18–25 17–26 16–27
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 7 8 1–10 1–10 1–10 1–11
Kristelig Folkeparti 10 7 2–9 2–10 1–10 1–11
Miljøpartiet de Grønne 1 4 1–9 1–9 1–10 1–10
Venstre 9 2 1–8 1–8 1–8 0–10
Rødt 0 1 1 1–2 1–2 0–2

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.3% 99.8%  
49 1.0% 99.5%  
50 3% 98.5%  
51 3% 95%  
52 5% 92%  
53 11% 87%  
54 8% 76%  
55 24% 68% Last Result, Median
56 14% 45%  
57 7% 30%  
58 5% 24%  
59 6% 19%  
60 3% 13%  
61 6% 10%  
62 2% 4%  
63 1.0% 3%  
64 0.4% 2%  
65 0.6% 1.2%  
66 0.4% 0.5%  
67 0% 0.2%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.1% 99.9%  
35 0.3% 99.9%  
36 0.6% 99.6%  
37 2% 99.0%  
38 5% 97%  
39 5% 92%  
40 10% 87%  
41 21% 77%  
42 7% 56% Median
43 9% 49%  
44 15% 41%  
45 13% 26%  
46 4% 12%  
47 4% 8%  
48 2% 4% Last Result
49 1.4% 2%  
50 0.7% 1.0%  
51 0.1% 0.3%  
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.7% 99.9%  
23 3% 99.1%  
24 3% 96%  
25 5% 93%  
26 11% 88%  
27 10% 78%  
28 29% 67% Median
29 15% 38% Last Result
30 10% 24%  
31 7% 14%  
32 3% 6%  
33 1.4% 3%  
34 1.1% 2%  
35 0.1% 0.5%  
36 0.3% 0.3%  
37 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.5% 100%  
16 0.3% 99.5%  
17 3% 99.3%  
18 4% 96%  
19 7% 92%  
20 18% 85%  
21 24% 66% Median
22 14% 43%  
23 15% 29%  
24 7% 14%  
25 3% 7%  
26 3% 3%  
27 0.6% 0.9%  
28 0.1% 0.3%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 11% 100%  
2 15% 89%  
3 0% 74%  
4 0% 74%  
5 0% 74%  
6 0% 74%  
7 11% 74% Last Result
8 33% 63% Median
9 20% 31%  
10 9% 11%  
11 2% 2%  
12 0.3% 0.3%  
13 0% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 3% 99.9%  
2 39% 97%  
3 0.3% 58%  
4 0% 58%  
5 0% 58%  
6 0% 58%  
7 8% 58% Median
8 29% 50%  
9 15% 21%  
10 5% 6% Last Result
11 0.8% 1.0%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet de Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet de Grønne page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 22% 100% Last Result
2 9% 78%  
3 11% 69%  
4 13% 58% Median
5 0% 45%  
6 0% 45%  
7 7% 45%  
8 24% 38%  
9 11% 15%  
10 3% 3%  
11 0.4% 0.5%  
12 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.8% 100%  
1 30% 99.2%  
2 42% 69% Median
3 5% 27%  
4 0% 22%  
5 0% 22%  
6 0.4% 22%  
7 7% 21%  
8 12% 14%  
9 2% 2% Last Result
10 0.5% 0.5%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100% Last Result
1 91% 98% Median
2 6% 6%  
3 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 106 101 100% 95–108 94–108 92–109 90–112
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne 83 94 98% 89–100 88–101 86–102 83–103
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne – Rødt 73 90 86% 84–95 82–96 81–98 79–101
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne 73 89 81% 83–94 81–95 80–97 78–100
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 72 85 55% 80–90 78–93 77–93 75–96
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 72 84 38% 79–89 77–92 76–92 74–95
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne – Venstre 97 84 45% 79–89 76–91 76–92 73–94
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 75 83 34% 78–88 76–90 74–90 73–93
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 96 79 14% 74–85 73–87 71–88 68–90
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 65 77 4% 72–82 72–84 71–86 68–91
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 77 70 0% 66–75 64–77 64–78 61–81
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 62 63 0% 57–67 56–69 55–70 52–72
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 67 51 0% 45–57 44–58 44–60 41–61
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 29 30 0% 25–36 24–37 22–39 21–40

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0.1% 100%  
89 0% 99.9%  
90 0.7% 99.9%  
91 0.7% 99.2%  
92 1.0% 98%  
93 1.1% 97%  
94 2% 96%  
95 8% 95%  
96 5% 87%  
97 11% 82%  
98 6% 71%  
99 8% 65%  
100 7% 57% Median
101 7% 50%  
102 12% 43%  
103 8% 31%  
104 4% 22%  
105 2% 18%  
106 2% 16% Last Result
107 3% 14%  
108 8% 11%  
109 1.1% 3%  
110 0.7% 2%  
111 0.3% 1.0%  
112 0.5% 0.7%  
113 0.2% 0.3%  
114 0.1% 0.1%  
115 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.9% 99.9% Last Result
84 0.6% 98.9%  
85 0.6% 98% Majority
86 1.0% 98%  
87 1.1% 97%  
88 2% 96%  
89 6% 93%  
90 4% 87%  
91 7% 83%  
92 7% 76%  
93 5% 70%  
94 15% 65%  
95 9% 50% Median
96 10% 40%  
97 13% 30%  
98 3% 17%  
99 4% 14%  
100 4% 10%  
101 2% 6%  
102 3% 4%  
103 0.6% 1.0%  
104 0.2% 0.5%  
105 0.2% 0.3%  
106 0.1% 0.1%  
107 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne – Rødt

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100% Last Result
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.6% 99.8%  
80 0.3% 99.2%  
81 3% 98.8%  
82 3% 96%  
83 2% 93%  
84 5% 91%  
85 5% 86% Majority
86 3% 82%  
87 8% 79%  
88 8% 71%  
89 11% 63% Median
90 10% 52%  
91 7% 42%  
92 3% 35%  
93 12% 32%  
94 5% 20%  
95 8% 16%  
96 4% 8%  
97 0.9% 4%  
98 2% 3%  
99 0.6% 1.4%  
100 0.2% 0.8%  
101 0.4% 0.6%  
102 0.1% 0.2%  
103 0.1% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100% Last Result
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.2% 99.9%  
78 0.6% 99.7%  
79 0.3% 99.2%  
80 3% 98.8%  
81 3% 96%  
82 2% 93%  
83 5% 91%  
84 4% 86%  
85 2% 81% Majority
86 8% 79%  
87 8% 71%  
88 11% 63% Median
89 11% 52%  
90 7% 42%  
91 3% 35%  
92 12% 32%  
93 5% 20%  
94 7% 15%  
95 4% 8%  
96 1.0% 4%  
97 1.5% 3%  
98 0.7% 1.5%  
99 0.2% 0.8%  
100 0.4% 0.6%  
101 0.1% 0.2%  
102 0.1% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100% Last Result
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.3% 99.9%  
75 0.2% 99.6%  
76 0.5% 99.4%  
77 2% 98.9%  
78 3% 97%  
79 2% 94%  
80 5% 92%  
81 13% 87%  
82 6% 74%  
83 5% 68%  
84 8% 63%  
85 17% 55% Median, Majority
86 8% 39%  
87 6% 30%  
88 7% 24%  
89 4% 17%  
90 4% 13%  
91 2% 9%  
92 2% 7%  
93 4% 5%  
94 1.0% 2%  
95 0.5% 1.0%  
96 0.3% 0.5%  
97 0.2% 0.2%  
98 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
73 0.2% 99.8%  
74 0.2% 99.6%  
75 0.6% 99.4%  
76 2% 98.8%  
77 3% 97%  
78 2% 94%  
79 5% 92%  
80 13% 87%  
81 6% 74%  
82 5% 68%  
83 8% 63%  
84 16% 55% Median
85 8% 38% Majority
86 6% 30%  
87 7% 24%  
88 5% 17%  
89 3% 12%  
90 2% 9%  
91 1.0% 6%  
92 4% 6%  
93 1.0% 2%  
94 0.5% 1.0%  
95 0.3% 0.5%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne – Venstre

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.2% 100%  
73 0.3% 99.8%  
74 0.5% 99.5%  
75 1.0% 99.0%  
76 4% 98%  
77 2% 95%  
78 2% 93%  
79 4% 91%  
80 4% 87%  
81 7% 83%  
82 6% 76%  
83 8% 70% Median
84 17% 61%  
85 8% 45% Majority
86 5% 37%  
87 6% 32%  
88 13% 26%  
89 5% 13%  
90 2% 8%  
91 3% 6%  
92 2% 3%  
93 0.5% 1.1%  
94 0.2% 0.6%  
95 0.3% 0.4%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
98 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.2% 99.9%  
73 0.5% 99.8%  
74 3% 99.3%  
75 0.9% 96% Last Result
76 2% 96%  
77 2% 94%  
78 10% 91%  
79 5% 81%  
80 8% 76%  
81 10% 68%  
82 4% 58%  
83 11% 54% Median
84 9% 43%  
85 6% 34% Majority
86 9% 28%  
87 7% 19%  
88 5% 13%  
89 2% 8%  
90 3% 5%  
91 0.8% 2%  
92 0.3% 2%  
93 0.8% 1.2%  
94 0.2% 0.4%  
95 0.1% 0.3%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.4% 99.8%  
69 0.2% 99.4%  
70 0.6% 99.2%  
71 2% 98.6%  
72 0.9% 97%  
73 4% 96%  
74 8% 92%  
75 5% 84%  
76 12% 80%  
77 3% 68%  
78 7% 65%  
79 10% 58% Median
80 11% 48%  
81 8% 37%  
82 8% 29%  
83 3% 21%  
84 5% 18%  
85 5% 14% Majority
86 2% 9%  
87 3% 7%  
88 3% 4%  
89 0.3% 1.2%  
90 0.6% 0.8%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100% Last Result
66 0% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.8% 99.8%  
69 0.4% 99.0%  
70 0.7% 98.6%  
71 2% 98%  
72 8% 96%  
73 7% 88%  
74 4% 81%  
75 14% 77%  
76 12% 63% Median
77 9% 51%  
78 13% 42%  
79 7% 30%  
80 4% 22%  
81 4% 18%  
82 4% 13%  
83 2% 9%  
84 3% 7%  
85 1.2% 4% Majority
86 1.3% 3%  
87 0.6% 1.5%  
88 0.2% 0.8%  
89 0.1% 0.6%  
90 0% 0.6%  
91 0.5% 0.6%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.5% 99.8%  
62 0.5% 99.4%  
63 0.8% 98.9%  
64 4% 98%  
65 2% 94%  
66 5% 92%  
67 4% 87%  
68 6% 83%  
69 12% 77%  
70 15% 65% Median
71 9% 50%  
72 14% 41%  
73 9% 26%  
74 5% 17%  
75 4% 12%  
76 2% 8%  
77 3% 6% Last Result
78 1.0% 3%  
79 2% 2%  
80 0.2% 0.7%  
81 0.1% 0.5%  
82 0.4% 0.5%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0.4% 99.8%  
53 0.3% 99.5%  
54 2% 99.2%  
55 1.2% 98%  
56 4% 96%  
57 4% 93%  
58 5% 88%  
59 6% 83%  
60 9% 77%  
61 6% 68%  
62 6% 62% Last Result
63 20% 56% Median
64 10% 36%  
65 7% 26%  
66 6% 19%  
67 4% 13%  
68 3% 9%  
69 3% 6%  
70 1.1% 3%  
71 2% 2%  
72 0.2% 0.7%  
73 0.3% 0.5%  
74 0% 0.2%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100%  
41 0.5% 99.9%  
42 0.3% 99.5%  
43 0.4% 99.1%  
44 7% 98.7%  
45 2% 91%  
46 2% 90%  
47 7% 88%  
48 12% 80%  
49 6% 69%  
50 5% 63%  
51 13% 58% Median
52 6% 45%  
53 7% 38%  
54 11% 31%  
55 4% 20%  
56 2% 16%  
57 5% 13%  
58 3% 8%  
59 2% 5%  
60 0.6% 3%  
61 2% 2%  
62 0.1% 0.4%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.2% 100%  
21 1.0% 99.8%  
22 2% 98.8%  
23 1.3% 97%  
24 3% 96%  
25 15% 93%  
26 4% 78%  
27 5% 75%  
28 4% 70%  
29 10% 66% Last Result
30 10% 56% Median
31 9% 46%  
32 9% 37%  
33 8% 28%  
34 6% 20%  
35 3% 14%  
36 6% 11%  
37 0.8% 5%  
38 0.6% 4%  
39 3% 4%  
40 0.3% 0.6%  
41 0.2% 0.3%  
42 0% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations