Opinion Poll by InFact for VG, 3–4 July 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 30.8% 31.8% 30.5–33.2% 30.2–33.6% 29.8–33.9% 29.2–34.6%
Høyre 26.8% 21.1% 20.0–22.3% 19.6–22.6% 19.4–22.9% 18.8–23.5%
Senterpartiet 5.5% 13.0% 12.1–14.0% 11.8–14.3% 11.6–14.5% 11.2–15.0%
Fremskrittspartiet 16.3% 11.9% 11.0–12.9% 10.8–13.2% 10.6–13.4% 10.2–13.9%
Kristelig Folkeparti 5.6% 4.6% 4.1–5.3% 3.9–5.5% 3.8–5.6% 3.5–6.0%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 4.1% 4.5% 4.0–5.2% 3.8–5.3% 3.7–5.5% 3.4–5.9%
Miljøpartiet de Grønne 2.8% 4.1% 3.6–4.8% 3.4–4.9% 3.3–5.1% 3.1–5.4%
Venstre 5.2% 3.5% 3.0–4.1% 2.9–4.2% 2.8–4.4% 2.5–4.7%
Rødt 1.1% 2.8% 2.4–3.3% 2.2–3.5% 2.1–3.6% 2.0–3.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 55 60 56–63 55–63 55–64 54–65
Høyre 48 38 36–42 36–42 35–42 34–44
Senterpartiet 10 24 22–26 21–27 21–27 20–28
Fremskrittspartiet 29 22 20–24 19–25 18–25 18–26
Kristelig Folkeparti 10 9 7–9 2–10 2–10 2–11
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 7 8 2–9 2–10 2–10 1–11
Miljøpartiet de Grønne 1 7 2–9 2–9 1–9 1–10
Venstre 9 2 1–3 1–7 1–8 1–8
Rødt 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 2% 99.8%  
55 5% 98% Last Result
56 9% 93%  
57 12% 84%  
58 13% 72%  
59 9% 59%  
60 8% 50% Median
61 7% 42%  
62 14% 35%  
63 16% 21%  
64 3% 5%  
65 1.1% 2%  
66 0.3% 0.4%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.4% 99.9%  
34 0.9% 99.5%  
35 2% 98.6%  
36 10% 96%  
37 15% 87%  
38 31% 72% Median
39 13% 41%  
40 8% 29%  
41 9% 21%  
42 10% 12%  
43 1.1% 2%  
44 0.6% 0.7%  
45 0.1% 0.2%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0.3% 100%  
20 1.4% 99.7%  
21 5% 98%  
22 16% 93%  
23 25% 77%  
24 25% 52% Median
25 15% 27%  
26 7% 13%  
27 5% 5%  
28 0.6% 0.8%  
29 0.2% 0.3%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.3% 100%  
18 3% 99.7%  
19 4% 97%  
20 10% 93%  
21 22% 83%  
22 22% 61% Median
23 26% 39%  
24 7% 13%  
25 5% 6%  
26 0.8% 1.0%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0% Last Result

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 8% 100%  
3 1.3% 92%  
4 0% 91%  
5 0% 91%  
6 0% 91%  
7 6% 91%  
8 34% 85%  
9 42% 51% Median
10 8% 9% Last Result
11 1.0% 1.0%  
12 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.9% 100%  
2 17% 99.1%  
3 0% 82%  
4 0% 82%  
5 0% 82%  
6 0% 82%  
7 8% 82% Last Result
8 42% 74% Median
9 25% 32%  
10 6% 7%  
11 0.8% 0.9%  
12 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet de Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet de Grønne page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 3% 100% Last Result
2 9% 97%  
3 11% 87%  
4 19% 76%  
5 0% 57%  
6 0% 57%  
7 12% 57% Median
8 33% 45%  
9 11% 12%  
10 1.1% 1.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 11% 99.9%  
2 73% 89% Median
3 6% 16%  
4 0% 10%  
5 0% 10%  
6 0% 10%  
7 6% 10%  
8 3% 4%  
9 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
10 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 43% 100%  
2 57% 57% Median
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0% 0.1%  
5 0% 0.1%  
6 0% 0.1%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne 83 105 100% 101–108 99–109 99–110 96–111
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne – Rødt 73 98 100% 93–102 93–103 93–104 90–106
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne 73 97 100% 92–100 92–102 91–102 89–104
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 106 95 100% 90–100 89–100 88–100 87–103
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 72 92 99.7% 87–95 85–97 85–98 85–100
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 72 91 91% 85–94 84–95 84–96 83–98
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 65 83 37% 80–86 78–87 78–90 77–91
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne – Venstre 97 77 0.3% 74–82 72–84 71–84 69–84
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 96 71 0% 67–76 66–76 65–76 63–79
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 62 67 0% 61–71 60–72 60–72 59–73
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 77 60 0% 57–65 56–66 55–66 53–67
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 67 49 0% 46–53 44–53 43–54 42–56
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 29 34 0% 31–38 29–39 28–40 27–42

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
83 0% 100% Last Result
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0.1% 100%  
95 0.1% 99.9%  
96 0.4% 99.8%  
97 0.5% 99.5%  
98 0.9% 99.0%  
99 4% 98%  
100 2% 94%  
101 9% 91%  
102 9% 82%  
103 13% 74%  
104 8% 61%  
105 12% 52%  
106 10% 40%  
107 19% 31%  
108 6% 12% Median
109 3% 5%  
110 2% 3%  
111 0.5% 0.6%  
112 0.1% 0.1%  
113 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne – Rødt

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100% Last Result
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0.2% 99.9%  
90 0.2% 99.7%  
91 0.7% 99.5%  
92 1.0% 98.8%  
93 8% 98%  
94 4% 90%  
95 7% 86%  
96 7% 78%  
97 12% 71%  
98 11% 59%  
99 20% 48%  
100 7% 28%  
101 9% 21% Median
102 5% 12%  
103 3% 7%  
104 2% 3%  
105 0.8% 1.3%  
106 0.1% 0.5%  
107 0.4% 0.4%  
108 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100% Last Result
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 100%  
87 0.2% 99.9%  
88 0.2% 99.7%  
89 0.3% 99.5%  
90 1.0% 99.2%  
91 2% 98%  
92 9% 96%  
93 4% 86%  
94 8% 82%  
95 13% 74%  
96 8% 61%  
97 12% 53%  
98 17% 41%  
99 10% 24% Median
100 6% 14%  
101 3% 8%  
102 3% 5%  
103 0.9% 2%  
104 0.2% 0.6%  
105 0.4% 0.4%  
106 0% 0%  

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0.4% 99.9%  
87 1.5% 99.5%  
88 2% 98%  
89 4% 97%  
90 5% 93%  
91 6% 88%  
92 4% 82%  
93 20% 77%  
94 5% 57%  
95 17% 52% Median
96 5% 35%  
97 6% 29%  
98 5% 23%  
99 8% 19%  
100 8% 11%  
101 1.0% 2%  
102 0.5% 1.4%  
103 0.5% 0.9%  
104 0.1% 0.3%  
105 0.1% 0.2%  
106 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
107 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100% Last Result
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0.1% 99.9%  
84 0.2% 99.9%  
85 6% 99.7% Majority
86 2% 94%  
87 3% 91%  
88 3% 88%  
89 6% 85%  
90 8% 79%  
91 12% 71%  
92 10% 59%  
93 7% 49%  
94 11% 42% Median
95 22% 31%  
96 3% 9%  
97 3% 6%  
98 0.8% 3%  
99 1.3% 2%  
100 0.6% 0.8%  
101 0.2% 0.2%  
102 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100% Last Result
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0.2% 99.9%  
83 0.3% 99.8%  
84 8% 99.4%  
85 2% 91% Majority
86 2% 89%  
87 7% 87%  
88 5% 81%  
89 11% 75%  
90 13% 64%  
91 8% 52%  
92 10% 44% Median
93 13% 34%  
94 14% 21%  
95 3% 7%  
96 1.4% 4%  
97 1.2% 2%  
98 0.9% 1.1%  
99 0.2% 0.3%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100% Last Result
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.3% 99.9%  
77 2% 99.6%  
78 3% 98%  
79 5% 95%  
80 5% 90%  
81 12% 85%  
82 18% 73%  
83 8% 55%  
84 10% 47% Median
85 11% 37% Majority
86 17% 26%  
87 5% 9%  
88 1.4% 4%  
89 0.5% 3%  
90 2% 3%  
91 0.4% 0.5%  
92 0.1% 0.2%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne – Venstre

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0.2% 99.9%  
69 0.6% 99.7%  
70 1.4% 99.2%  
71 0.8% 98%  
72 3% 97%  
73 3% 94%  
74 22% 91%  
75 11% 69%  
76 7% 58%  
77 10% 51%  
78 12% 41% Median
79 8% 29%  
80 6% 21%  
81 3% 15%  
82 3% 12%  
83 2% 9%  
84 6% 6%  
85 0.2% 0.3% Majority
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.4% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.6%  
64 0.8% 99.5%  
65 2% 98.7%  
66 3% 96%  
67 5% 93%  
68 9% 88%  
69 7% 79%  
70 20% 72%  
71 11% 52% Median
72 12% 41%  
73 7% 29%  
74 7% 22%  
75 4% 14%  
76 8% 10%  
77 1.0% 2%  
78 0.7% 1.2%  
79 0.2% 0.5%  
80 0.2% 0.3%  
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.8%  
59 0.6% 99.8%  
60 8% 99.1%  
61 2% 91%  
62 3% 90% Last Result
63 3% 87%  
64 6% 83%  
65 16% 77%  
66 8% 61%  
67 8% 53%  
68 6% 45% Median
69 10% 40%  
70 9% 30%  
71 15% 21%  
72 3% 6%  
73 2% 2%  
74 0.3% 0.5%  
75 0.2% 0.2%  
76 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0% 99.9%  
53 1.2% 99.9%  
54 0.5% 98.6%  
55 1.2% 98%  
56 3% 97%  
57 8% 94%  
58 9% 87%  
59 21% 78%  
60 11% 57% Median
61 14% 47%  
62 8% 33%  
63 9% 26%  
64 4% 17%  
65 7% 12%  
66 4% 5%  
67 1.0% 1.4%  
68 0.1% 0.3%  
69 0.2% 0.2%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.4% 99.9%  
42 2% 99.6%  
43 1.0% 98%  
44 2% 97%  
45 4% 95%  
46 7% 90%  
47 9% 83%  
48 10% 74%  
49 26% 64% Median
50 10% 38%  
51 7% 28%  
52 8% 21%  
53 9% 13%  
54 3% 4%  
55 0.5% 1.5%  
56 0.5% 0.9%  
57 0.1% 0.4%  
58 0.2% 0.3%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.2% 100%  
27 2% 99.7%  
28 1.4% 98%  
29 2% 97% Last Result
30 3% 94%  
31 7% 91%  
32 7% 84%  
33 11% 76%  
34 22% 65%  
35 19% 43% Median
36 7% 23%  
37 3% 17%  
38 6% 13%  
39 3% 8%  
40 3% 5%  
41 0.6% 1.3%  
42 0.4% 0.7%  
43 0.3% 0.3%  
44 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations