Opinion Poll by Norfakta for Nationen and Klassekampen, 4–5 July 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 30.8% 32.2% 30.1–34.4% 29.5–35.0% 29.0–35.6% 28.1–36.7%
Høyre 26.8% 22.9% 21.0–24.9% 20.5–25.5% 20.1–26.0% 19.2–27.0%
Fremskrittspartiet 16.3% 14.7% 13.2–16.4% 12.8–16.9% 12.4–17.4% 11.7–18.2%
Senterpartiet 5.5% 9.7% 8.5–11.2% 8.1–11.6% 7.8–12.0% 7.3–12.8%
Kristelig Folkeparti 5.6% 5.2% 4.3–6.4% 4.1–6.8% 3.9–7.0% 3.5–7.7%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 4.1% 4.6% 3.8–5.7% 3.5–6.0% 3.3–6.3% 3.0–6.9%
Miljøpartiet de Grønne 2.8% 3.8% 3.1–4.9% 2.9–5.2% 2.7–5.4% 2.4–6.0%
Venstre 5.2% 3.3% 2.6–4.3% 2.4–4.6% 2.3–4.8% 2.0–5.3%
Rødt 1.1% 1.8% 1.3–2.6% 1.2–2.8% 1.1–3.0% 0.9–3.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 55 58 54–63 53–64 52–65 51–68
Høyre 48 42 37–45 36–46 36–48 34–49
Fremskrittspartiet 29 27 24–30 23–30 22–32 21–33
Senterpartiet 10 18 15–20 15–21 14–21 13–23
Kristelig Folkeparti 10 9 8–11 7–12 2–13 2–14
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 7 8 2–10 2–11 1–11 1–12
Miljøpartiet de Grønne 1 4 1–9 1–9 1–10 1–10
Venstre 9 2 1–7 1–8 1–8 0–9
Rødt 0 1 1 1–2 0–2 0–2

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0% 100%  
49 0.1% 99.9%  
50 0.3% 99.8%  
51 1.0% 99.6%  
52 1.2% 98.6%  
53 7% 97%  
54 5% 90%  
55 9% 85% Last Result
56 8% 76%  
57 8% 68%  
58 16% 59% Median
59 10% 43%  
60 7% 34%  
61 4% 26%  
62 7% 22%  
63 7% 15%  
64 5% 8%  
65 1.0% 3%  
66 1.1% 2%  
67 0.6% 1.1%  
68 0.3% 0.5%  
69 0.2% 0.3%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.3% 100%  
34 0.5% 99.7%  
35 1.4% 99.1%  
36 3% 98%  
37 6% 95%  
38 11% 89%  
39 11% 78%  
40 9% 66%  
41 7% 57%  
42 22% 50% Median
43 8% 28%  
44 6% 20%  
45 7% 15%  
46 3% 8%  
47 2% 5%  
48 1.4% 3% Last Result
49 0.8% 1.1%  
50 0.1% 0.3%  
51 0.1% 0.2%  
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.3% 99.8%  
21 1.1% 99.6%  
22 3% 98%  
23 4% 95%  
24 7% 91%  
25 8% 85%  
26 16% 76%  
27 21% 60% Median
28 11% 39%  
29 13% 28% Last Result
30 10% 15%  
31 2% 5%  
32 2% 3%  
33 0.5% 0.9%  
34 0.3% 0.4%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0.1% 100%  
12 0.2% 99.9%  
13 1.5% 99.7%  
14 3% 98%  
15 7% 95%  
16 14% 89%  
17 20% 75%  
18 21% 55% Median
19 16% 34%  
20 12% 18%  
21 4% 7%  
22 1.2% 2%  
23 0.7% 1.0%  
24 0.2% 0.2%  
25 0% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 4% 100%  
3 0% 96%  
4 0% 96%  
5 0% 96%  
6 0% 96%  
7 5% 96%  
8 16% 92%  
9 28% 76% Median
10 29% 48% Last Result
11 10% 19%  
12 4% 8%  
13 3% 4%  
14 0.6% 0.7%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 3% 100%  
2 15% 97%  
3 0% 82%  
4 0% 82%  
5 0% 82%  
6 0% 82%  
7 5% 82% Last Result
8 30% 77% Median
9 30% 47%  
10 9% 16%  
11 5% 7%  
12 2% 2%  
13 0.2% 0.3%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet de Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet de Grønne page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 32% 100% Last Result
2 9% 68%  
3 8% 59%  
4 15% 52% Median
5 0% 36%  
6 0.4% 36%  
7 10% 36%  
8 15% 26%  
9 8% 11%  
10 2% 3%  
11 0.3% 0.4%  
12 0% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 36% 98%  
2 32% 62% Median
3 11% 30%  
4 0% 19%  
5 0% 19%  
6 0% 19%  
7 10% 19%  
8 7% 9%  
9 2% 2% Last Result
10 0.3% 0.4%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100% Last Result
1 91% 97% Median
2 6% 6%  
3 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 106 98 99.9% 92–103 91–104 89–106 86–108
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne 83 97 99.9% 93–102 91–103 89–105 87–107
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne – Rødt 73 89 89% 84–94 82–95 82–97 79–99
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne 73 88 78% 83–93 81–94 81–96 78–98
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 72 85 52% 80–90 78–91 77–92 74–94
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne – Venstre 97 84 48% 79–89 78–91 77–92 75–95
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 72 84 40% 79–89 77–90 76–91 73–93
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 96 80 11% 75–85 74–87 72–87 70–90
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 65 76 0.9% 71–81 70–82 69–83 67–85
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 77 68 0% 63–73 62–74 61–76 59–77
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 62 66 0% 61–72 60–72 58–73 55–76
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 67 53 0% 49–58 47–59 46–60 44–63
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 29 30 0% 26–34 24–35 23–37 20–39

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0% 100%  
85 0.1% 99.9% Majority
86 0.4% 99.8%  
87 0.3% 99.4%  
88 0.6% 99.1%  
89 1.4% 98.5%  
90 1.4% 97%  
91 3% 96%  
92 3% 93%  
93 4% 90%  
94 5% 86%  
95 9% 80%  
96 8% 71%  
97 7% 63%  
98 10% 56% Median
99 11% 46%  
100 8% 35%  
101 10% 28%  
102 3% 18%  
103 7% 15%  
104 2% 7%  
105 2% 5%  
106 2% 3% Last Result
107 0.3% 1.0%  
108 0.3% 0.7%  
109 0.2% 0.4%  
110 0.1% 0.1%  
111 0% 0.1%  
112 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
83 0% 100% Last Result
84 0% 100%  
85 0.1% 99.9% Majority
86 0.2% 99.9%  
87 0.3% 99.7%  
88 0.5% 99.4%  
89 2% 98.9%  
90 1.4% 97%  
91 3% 96%  
92 2% 93%  
93 6% 92%  
94 10% 86%  
95 9% 75%  
96 9% 66%  
97 11% 57% Median
98 11% 46%  
99 12% 35%  
100 4% 22%  
101 5% 18%  
102 5% 13%  
103 3% 8%  
104 2% 5%  
105 1.0% 3%  
106 0.9% 2%  
107 0.5% 0.8%  
108 0.1% 0.2%  
109 0.1% 0.1%  
110 0.1% 0.1%  
111 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne – Rødt

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100% Last Result
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 0.1% 99.8%  
79 0.4% 99.7%  
80 0.4% 99.3%  
81 1.1% 98.9%  
82 4% 98%  
83 2% 94%  
84 3% 92%  
85 11% 89% Majority
86 7% 78%  
87 5% 71%  
88 5% 66%  
89 20% 60% Median
90 9% 40%  
91 9% 31%  
92 4% 22%  
93 5% 17%  
94 5% 12%  
95 3% 8%  
96 1.3% 4%  
97 0.8% 3%  
98 1.0% 2%  
99 0.7% 1.1%  
100 0.1% 0.4%  
101 0.2% 0.3%  
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100% Last Result
74 0% 100%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.2% 99.8%  
78 0.4% 99.6%  
79 0.4% 99.2%  
80 1.1% 98.8%  
81 4% 98%  
82 2% 94%  
83 4% 92%  
84 10% 88%  
85 8% 78% Majority
86 5% 70%  
87 6% 66%  
88 20% 60% Median
89 9% 40%  
90 9% 31%  
91 5% 22%  
92 5% 17%  
93 4% 12%  
94 4% 8%  
95 1.3% 4%  
96 0.7% 3%  
97 1.0% 2%  
98 0.7% 1.1%  
99 0.1% 0.4%  
100 0.2% 0.3%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 99.9% Last Result
73 0.2% 99.9%  
74 0.3% 99.6%  
75 0.8% 99.3%  
76 0.7% 98.5%  
77 1.1% 98%  
78 2% 97%  
79 3% 94%  
80 4% 91%  
81 11% 87%  
82 9% 76%  
83 7% 67%  
84 9% 61%  
85 12% 52% Median, Majority
86 6% 40%  
87 8% 34%  
88 8% 25%  
89 5% 17%  
90 7% 12%  
91 0.7% 5%  
92 3% 4%  
93 0.6% 2%  
94 0.5% 1.0%  
95 0.3% 0.5%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne – Venstre

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0% 99.9%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.3% 99.8%  
75 0.5% 99.5%  
76 0.6% 99.0%  
77 3% 98%  
78 0.7% 96%  
79 7% 95%  
80 5% 88%  
81 8% 83%  
82 8% 75%  
83 6% 66%  
84 12% 60% Median
85 9% 48% Majority
86 7% 39%  
87 9% 33%  
88 11% 24%  
89 4% 13%  
90 3% 9%  
91 2% 6%  
92 1.1% 3%  
93 0.7% 2%  
94 0.8% 1.5%  
95 0.3% 0.7%  
96 0.2% 0.4%  
97 0% 0.1% Last Result
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0% 99.9%  
72 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
73 0.3% 99.6%  
74 0.8% 99.3%  
75 0.8% 98.6%  
76 1.1% 98%  
77 2% 97%  
78 4% 94%  
79 4% 91%  
80 10% 86%  
81 9% 76%  
82 8% 67%  
83 8% 60%  
84 12% 52% Median
85 7% 40% Majority
86 8% 33%  
87 8% 25%  
88 5% 17%  
89 7% 12%  
90 0.9% 5%  
91 3% 4%  
92 0.6% 2%  
93 0.5% 1.0%  
94 0.3% 0.5%  
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0.2% 99.9%  
69 0.1% 99.7%  
70 0.7% 99.6%  
71 1.0% 98.9%  
72 0.8% 98%  
73 1.3% 97%  
74 3% 96%  
75 5% 92%  
76 5% 88%  
77 4% 83%  
78 9% 78%  
79 9% 69%  
80 20% 60% Median
81 5% 40%  
82 5% 34%  
83 7% 29%  
84 11% 22%  
85 3% 11% Majority
86 2% 8%  
87 4% 6%  
88 1.1% 2%  
89 0.4% 1.1%  
90 0.4% 0.7%  
91 0.1% 0.3%  
92 0.1% 0.2%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100% Last Result
66 0.2% 99.9%  
67 0.3% 99.7%  
68 1.0% 99.4%  
69 1.4% 98%  
70 3% 97%  
71 5% 94%  
72 11% 90%  
73 7% 79%  
74 7% 72%  
75 10% 65%  
76 11% 55% Median
77 10% 45%  
78 7% 35%  
79 8% 28%  
80 9% 20%  
81 4% 11%  
82 4% 8%  
83 2% 4%  
84 1.1% 2%  
85 0.5% 0.9% Majority
86 0.1% 0.4%  
87 0.1% 0.3%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0.1% 99.8%  
59 0.3% 99.7%  
60 2% 99.3%  
61 2% 98%  
62 2% 96%  
63 7% 95%  
64 4% 88%  
65 12% 83%  
66 6% 71%  
67 6% 65%  
68 11% 59%  
69 15% 48% Median
70 5% 33%  
71 12% 29%  
72 5% 17%  
73 6% 12%  
74 2% 6%  
75 1.1% 4%  
76 2% 3%  
77 0.6% 1.0% Last Result
78 0.2% 0.4%  
79 0.2% 0.2%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.3% 99.9%  
55 0.4% 99.6%  
56 0.5% 99.3%  
57 0.8% 98.8%  
58 1.1% 98%  
59 1.2% 97%  
60 3% 96%  
61 8% 92%  
62 4% 84% Last Result
63 8% 81%  
64 10% 73%  
65 8% 63%  
66 12% 54% Median
67 12% 43%  
68 8% 31%  
69 6% 23%  
70 4% 18%  
71 4% 14%  
72 6% 10%  
73 3% 4%  
74 0.8% 2%  
75 0.3% 1.0%  
76 0.4% 0.7%  
77 0.1% 0.3%  
78 0.1% 0.3%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100%  
43 0.4% 99.9%  
44 0.7% 99.5%  
45 0.5% 98.9%  
46 1.2% 98%  
47 3% 97%  
48 4% 95%  
49 5% 90%  
50 8% 85%  
51 6% 77%  
52 10% 71%  
53 15% 61% Median
54 12% 46%  
55 11% 35%  
56 7% 23%  
57 6% 16%  
58 5% 10%  
59 2% 5%  
60 1.3% 3%  
61 0.5% 2%  
62 0.6% 1.3%  
63 0.4% 0.7%  
64 0.1% 0.4%  
65 0.2% 0.3%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0.1% Last Result
68 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0% 100%  
19 0.3% 99.9%  
20 0.6% 99.6%  
21 0.3% 99.0%  
22 0.3% 98.7%  
23 2% 98%  
24 1.2% 96%  
25 2% 95%  
26 6% 93%  
27 13% 87%  
28 8% 75%  
29 15% 67% Last Result, Median
30 13% 51%  
31 6% 38%  
32 12% 32%  
33 9% 20%  
34 4% 11%  
35 3% 8%  
36 1.1% 4%  
37 2% 3%  
38 0.3% 1.1%  
39 0.5% 0.9%  
40 0.1% 0.3%  
41 0.2% 0.2%  
42 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations