Opinion Poll by Norfakta for Nationen and Klassekampen, 1–2 August 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 30.8% 31.9% 30.1–33.9% 29.6–34.4% 29.1–34.9% 28.3–35.8%
Høyre 26.8% 26.1% 24.3–27.9% 23.9–28.4% 23.4–28.9% 22.6–29.8%
Fremskrittspartiet 16.3% 13.8% 12.5–15.3% 12.1–15.7% 11.8–16.1% 11.2–16.8%
Senterpartiet 5.5% 9.5% 8.4–10.7% 8.0–11.1% 7.8–11.4% 7.3–12.1%
Kristelig Folkeparti 5.6% 4.7% 3.9–5.7% 3.7–5.9% 3.5–6.2% 3.2–6.7%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 4.1% 4.6% 3.8–5.5% 3.6–5.8% 3.4–6.1% 3.1–6.6%
Venstre 5.2% 3.1% 2.5–3.9% 2.3–4.1% 2.2–4.4% 1.9–4.8%
Miljøpartiet de Grønne 2.8% 2.1% 1.6–2.8% 1.5–3.0% 1.4–3.2% 1.2–3.6%
Rødt 1.1% 1.8% 1.4–2.5% 1.2–2.7% 1.1–2.8% 1.0–3.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 55 59 55–63 54–64 53–65 51–67
Høyre 48 48 44–52 43–53 43–53 41–55
Fremskrittspartiet 29 25 23–29 22–29 21–30 20–31
Senterpartiet 10 18 15–20 15–21 14–21 13–22
Kristelig Folkeparti 10 9 2–10 2–11 2–11 2–12
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 7 8 2–10 2–11 2–11 1–12
Venstre 9 1 1–3 1–7 0–8 0–8
Miljøpartiet de Grønne 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Rødt 0 1 1 1 1–2 0–2

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.4% 99.8%  
52 1.0% 99.5%  
53 3% 98.5%  
54 4% 96%  
55 7% 92% Last Result
56 11% 85%  
57 11% 75%  
58 12% 63%  
59 8% 51% Median
60 13% 43%  
61 9% 30%  
62 7% 21%  
63 6% 14%  
64 4% 8%  
65 2% 4%  
66 0.8% 1.4%  
67 0.3% 0.6%  
68 0.2% 0.3%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.3% 99.9%  
41 0.6% 99.6%  
42 1.4% 99.0%  
43 4% 98%  
44 5% 94%  
45 10% 89%  
46 14% 79%  
47 16% 66%  
48 15% 50% Last Result, Median
49 10% 35%  
50 8% 25%  
51 6% 17%  
52 5% 11%  
53 3% 6%  
54 1.3% 2%  
55 0.6% 1.0%  
56 0.3% 0.4%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.2% 100%  
20 0.6% 99.7%  
21 2% 99.2%  
22 5% 97%  
23 12% 92%  
24 16% 80%  
25 17% 64% Median
26 12% 47%  
27 17% 35%  
28 7% 18%  
29 7% 11% Last Result
30 2% 3%  
31 0.4% 0.8%  
32 0.3% 0.4%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.6% 99.9%  
14 3% 99.2%  
15 9% 96%  
16 15% 87%  
17 21% 72%  
18 21% 51% Median
19 17% 29%  
20 7% 13%  
21 4% 5%  
22 1.3% 2%  
23 0.2% 0.3%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 12% 99.9%  
3 0% 88%  
4 0% 88%  
5 0% 88%  
6 0% 88%  
7 5% 88%  
8 30% 82%  
9 28% 52% Median
10 16% 24% Last Result
11 7% 8%  
12 1.5% 2%  
13 0.3% 0.3%  
14 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 2% 100%  
2 16% 98%  
3 0% 82%  
4 0% 82%  
5 0% 82%  
6 0% 82%  
7 6% 82% Last Result
8 28% 76% Median
9 28% 48%  
10 14% 21%  
11 6% 7%  
12 0.8% 0.9%  
13 0.2% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 55% 97% Median
2 24% 42%  
3 11% 18%  
4 0% 7%  
5 0% 7%  
6 0% 7%  
7 3% 7%  
8 4% 4%  
9 0.4% 0.4% Last Result
10 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet de Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet de Grønne page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 18% 100%  
1 81% 82% Last Result, Median
2 0.4% 0.8%  
3 0.3% 0.4%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100% Last Result
1 94% 98% Median
2 4% 4%  
3 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 106 101 100% 96–105 95–106 94–107 92–110
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne 83 93 98.9% 88–98 87–98 85–99 83–101
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne – Rødt 73 86 65% 81–90 80–92 79–93 77–94
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne 73 85 54% 80–89 79–91 78–92 76–93
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 72 85 57% 80–89 79–91 78–92 76–94
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 75 84 50% 80–89 79–90 77–92 75–94
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 72 84 44% 79–88 78–90 77–91 75–93
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet de Grønne 97 84 43% 79–89 78–90 77–91 75–93
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 96 83 34% 79–88 77–89 76–90 74–92
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 65 76 2% 72–81 71–82 70–84 68–86
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 77 73 0.1% 69–78 68–79 67–80 65–82
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 62 66 0% 62–71 61–72 60–73 57–75
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 67 58 0% 54–62 52–63 51–65 48–67
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 29 28 0% 23–31 21–32 20–33 18–35

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
89 0% 100%  
90 0.1% 99.9%  
91 0.3% 99.8%  
92 0.4% 99.6%  
93 1.2% 99.2%  
94 2% 98%  
95 3% 96%  
96 4% 93%  
97 7% 89%  
98 11% 82%  
99 7% 71%  
100 8% 63%  
101 15% 56% Median
102 10% 41%  
103 10% 30%  
104 7% 20%  
105 6% 14%  
106 4% 8% Last Result
107 2% 4%  
108 1.1% 2%  
109 0.5% 1.2%  
110 0.4% 0.6%  
111 0.1% 0.3%  
112 0.1% 0.1%  
113 0% 0.1%  
114 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100%  
81 0.1% 99.9%  
82 0.3% 99.9%  
83 0.2% 99.6% Last Result
84 0.6% 99.4%  
85 1.4% 98.9% Majority
86 1.4% 97%  
87 4% 96%  
88 4% 92%  
89 4% 88%  
90 10% 84%  
91 10% 74%  
92 8% 64%  
93 12% 56%  
94 9% 45%  
95 12% 36% Median
96 7% 23%  
97 6% 16%  
98 6% 10%  
99 2% 4%  
100 1.2% 2%  
101 0.5% 0.8%  
102 0.2% 0.3%  
103 0.1% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne – Rødt

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100% Last Result
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.2% 99.8%  
77 0.6% 99.5%  
78 1.1% 99.0%  
79 3% 98%  
80 3% 95%  
81 5% 93%  
82 5% 88%  
83 9% 82%  
84 8% 73%  
85 11% 65% Majority
86 10% 54%  
87 10% 44% Median
88 8% 33%  
89 8% 25%  
90 9% 17%  
91 3% 8%  
92 3% 5%  
93 1.4% 3%  
94 0.6% 1.1%  
95 0.2% 0.5%  
96 0.2% 0.2%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100% Last Result
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.2% 99.8%  
76 0.6% 99.6%  
77 1.1% 98.9%  
78 3% 98%  
79 3% 95%  
80 5% 93%  
81 5% 87%  
82 8% 82%  
83 9% 74%  
84 11% 65%  
85 11% 54% Majority
86 10% 43% Median
87 8% 33%  
88 8% 25%  
89 9% 17%  
90 3% 8%  
91 2% 5%  
92 1.4% 3%  
93 0.6% 1.1%  
94 0.3% 0.5%  
95 0.2% 0.2%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100% Last Result
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.3% 99.8%  
76 0.5% 99.6%  
77 0.9% 99.0%  
78 3% 98%  
79 2% 96%  
80 4% 93%  
81 5% 89%  
82 10% 84%  
83 8% 74%  
84 9% 66%  
85 12% 57% Majority
86 10% 44% Median
87 7% 35%  
88 9% 28%  
89 8% 18%  
90 4% 10%  
91 3% 6%  
92 2% 3%  
93 0.6% 1.2%  
94 0.4% 0.6%  
95 0.1% 0.3%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.2% 99.7%  
75 0.4% 99.6% Last Result
76 0.6% 99.1%  
77 1.4% 98.6%  
78 2% 97%  
79 3% 95%  
80 5% 92%  
81 7% 87%  
82 9% 80%  
83 8% 70%  
84 12% 62%  
85 13% 50% Majority
86 10% 37% Median
87 7% 27%  
88 8% 20%  
89 4% 12%  
90 3% 8%  
91 2% 4%  
92 2% 3%  
93 0.4% 1.1%  
94 0.4% 0.7%  
95 0.2% 0.3%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100% Last Result
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.3% 99.8%  
75 0.5% 99.6%  
76 0.9% 99.0%  
77 3% 98%  
78 2% 95%  
79 4% 93%  
80 5% 89%  
81 10% 84%  
82 8% 74%  
83 10% 66%  
84 12% 56%  
85 11% 44% Median, Majority
86 6% 34%  
87 10% 28%  
88 9% 18%  
89 4% 10%  
90 3% 6%  
91 2% 3%  
92 0.6% 1.2%  
93 0.3% 0.6%  
94 0.1% 0.3%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet de Grønne

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.2% 99.9%  
75 0.4% 99.7%  
76 0.6% 99.3%  
77 2% 98.7%  
78 3% 97%  
79 4% 94%  
80 8% 90%  
81 9% 81%  
82 7% 72%  
83 10% 65%  
84 12% 55% Median
85 9% 43% Majority
86 8% 34%  
87 10% 25%  
88 5% 16%  
89 4% 11%  
90 2% 7%  
91 3% 4%  
92 0.8% 2%  
93 0.5% 0.9%  
94 0.3% 0.4%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100%  
73 0.2% 99.9%  
74 0.3% 99.7%  
75 0.7% 99.5%  
76 1.5% 98.8%  
77 3% 97%  
78 3% 95%  
79 9% 92%  
80 8% 83%  
81 8% 75%  
82 10% 66%  
83 10% 56% Median
84 11% 46%  
85 8% 34% Majority
86 9% 26%  
87 5% 18%  
88 5% 12%  
89 3% 7%  
90 3% 5%  
91 1.0% 2%  
92 0.6% 1.0%  
93 0.2% 0.4%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100% Last Result
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.2% 99.9%  
68 0.5% 99.7%  
69 1.1% 99.2%  
70 2% 98%  
71 5% 96%  
72 5% 91%  
73 9% 87%  
74 8% 78%  
75 12% 70%  
76 9% 58%  
77 13% 49% Median
78 9% 36%  
79 10% 28%  
80 6% 18%  
81 5% 12%  
82 3% 7%  
83 2% 4%  
84 0.9% 3%  
85 1.2% 2% Majority
86 0.3% 0.5%  
87 0.2% 0.2%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.2% 99.8%  
65 0.5% 99.7%  
66 1.1% 99.1%  
67 2% 98%  
68 5% 96%  
69 6% 91%  
70 8% 85%  
71 8% 76%  
72 11% 68%  
73 11% 57% Median
74 11% 46%  
75 8% 35%  
76 10% 27%  
77 6% 17% Last Result
78 3% 11%  
79 4% 7%  
80 2% 3%  
81 0.8% 1.4%  
82 0.4% 0.6%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.4% 99.7%  
58 0.5% 99.3%  
59 1.1% 98.9%  
60 1.5% 98%  
61 3% 96%  
62 6% 94% Last Result
63 6% 87%  
64 10% 81%  
65 11% 71%  
66 15% 60%  
67 9% 45% Median
68 6% 37%  
69 11% 31%  
70 9% 20%  
71 4% 12%  
72 4% 8%  
73 2% 4%  
74 1.1% 2%  
75 0.5% 0.9%  
76 0.3% 0.4%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.4% 99.8%  
49 0.3% 99.5%  
50 1.0% 99.1%  
51 2% 98%  
52 2% 97%  
53 4% 95%  
54 6% 90%  
55 9% 84%  
56 12% 75%  
57 13% 63%  
58 12% 50% Median
59 12% 39%  
60 7% 26%  
61 6% 19%  
62 6% 13%  
63 3% 7%  
64 1.4% 4%  
65 1.4% 3%  
66 0.7% 2%  
67 0.6% 0.9% Last Result
68 0.3% 0.4%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.5% 99.9%  
19 1.3% 99.4%  
20 2% 98%  
21 2% 96%  
22 2% 94%  
23 3% 93%  
24 3% 90%  
25 7% 87%  
26 11% 79%  
27 13% 68%  
28 17% 55% Median
29 16% 38% Last Result
30 8% 22%  
31 6% 14%  
32 3% 8%  
33 2% 5%  
34 1.2% 2%  
35 0.7% 1.1%  
36 0.2% 0.4%  
37 0.1% 0.2%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations