Opinion Poll by Respons Analyse for Aftenposten and Bergens Tidende, 8–10 August 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 30.8% 28.1% 26.3–30.0% 25.8–30.5% 25.4–31.0% 24.6–31.9%
Høyre 26.8% 24.8% 23.1–26.6% 22.6–27.1% 22.2–27.6% 21.4–28.5%
Fremskrittspartiet 16.3% 13.6% 12.3–15.1% 11.9–15.5% 11.6–15.9% 11.0–16.6%
Senterpartiet 5.5% 10.1% 9.0–11.4% 8.6–11.8% 8.4–12.1% 7.9–12.8%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 4.1% 6.4% 5.5–7.5% 5.3–7.8% 5.0–8.1% 4.6–8.7%
Kristelig Folkeparti 5.6% 5.1% 4.3–6.1% 4.1–6.4% 3.9–6.6% 3.6–7.2%
Miljøpartiet de Grønne 2.8% 3.7% 3.0–4.6% 2.9–4.8% 2.7–5.1% 2.4–5.5%
Venstre 5.2% 3.6% 2.9–4.5% 2.8–4.7% 2.6–5.0% 2.3–5.4%
Rødt 1.1% 2.7% 2.1–3.5% 2.0–3.7% 1.9–3.9% 1.6–4.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 55 52 48–55 47–56 47–57 45–60
Høyre 48 45 41–49 40–49 39–51 37–52
Fremskrittspartiet 29 25 22–28 21–28 21–29 19–31
Senterpartiet 10 18 16–21 15–22 15–22 14–24
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 7 12 10–14 9–14 9–15 8–16
Kristelig Folkeparti 10 9 7–11 2–11 2–12 2–13
Miljøpartiet de Grønne 1 2 1–8 1–9 1–9 1–10
Venstre 9 2 1–8 1–8 1–9 0–10
Rødt 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–7

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.3% 99.9%  
45 0.4% 99.6%  
46 2% 99.2%  
47 3% 98%  
48 7% 94%  
49 7% 87%  
50 15% 80%  
51 14% 65%  
52 18% 51% Median
53 11% 33%  
54 8% 23%  
55 8% 15% Last Result
56 4% 7%  
57 1.1% 3%  
58 0.9% 2%  
59 0.5% 1.0%  
60 0.3% 0.5%  
61 0.1% 0.2%  
62 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.7% 99.9%  
38 1.2% 99.1%  
39 2% 98%  
40 4% 96%  
41 7% 91%  
42 7% 84%  
43 8% 77%  
44 13% 69%  
45 11% 56% Median
46 7% 45%  
47 18% 38%  
48 9% 20% Last Result
49 6% 11%  
50 2% 5%  
51 1.1% 3%  
52 1.4% 2%  
53 0.1% 0.2%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.7% 99.9%  
20 1.3% 99.2%  
21 5% 98%  
22 9% 93%  
23 15% 84%  
24 18% 69%  
25 12% 51% Median
26 19% 38%  
27 8% 20%  
28 7% 12%  
29 4% 5% Last Result
30 0.7% 1.2%  
31 0.4% 0.5%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.4% 100%  
14 1.1% 99.6%  
15 7% 98.5%  
16 13% 92%  
17 16% 79%  
18 17% 63% Median
19 22% 46%  
20 14% 24%  
21 5% 10%  
22 3% 5%  
23 0.8% 2%  
24 0.7% 0.8%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100% Last Result
8 0.9% 99.9%  
9 7% 99.0%  
10 11% 92%  
11 22% 81%  
12 23% 59% Median
13 22% 36%  
14 10% 14%  
15 3% 4%  
16 0.5% 0.6%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 7% 100%  
3 0.3% 93%  
4 0% 93%  
5 0% 93%  
6 0% 93%  
7 4% 93%  
8 16% 89%  
9 27% 73% Median
10 27% 46% Last Result
11 14% 19%  
12 3% 5%  
13 1.4% 2%  
14 0.2% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet de Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet de Grønne page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 44% 100% Last Result
2 10% 56% Median
3 14% 46%  
4 0.3% 33%  
5 0% 32%  
6 0.1% 32%  
7 12% 32%  
8 14% 20%  
9 6% 7%  
10 0.9% 1.0%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.7% 100%  
1 23% 99.3%  
2 32% 76% Median
3 16% 44%  
4 0% 27%  
5 0% 27%  
6 0% 27%  
7 9% 27%  
8 14% 18%  
9 4% 4% Last Result
10 0.6% 0.7%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 53% 100% Median
2 45% 47%  
3 0% 2%  
4 0% 2%  
5 0% 2%  
6 0.1% 2%  
7 2% 2%  
8 0.4% 0.4%  
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 106 100 100% 95–105 94–106 93–107 90–110
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne 83 94 99.8% 89–99 88–101 87–102 85–104
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne – Rødt 73 87 69% 82–92 81–94 80–95 78–96
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne 73 85 56% 80–90 79–92 78–93 77–95
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne – Venstre 97 86 65% 81–90 80–91 79–92 76–94
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 72 83 35% 79–88 78–89 77–90 75–93
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 96 82 31% 77–87 75–88 74–89 73–91
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 72 82 20% 77–86 76–87 75–88 73–91
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 75 79 5% 74–83 73–85 72–85 70–87
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 65 70 0% 66–74 65–75 64–76 62–79
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 77 70 0% 65–74 64–76 62–76 61–78
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 62 63 0% 60–68 59–69 57–69 56–72
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 67 57 0% 52–62 51–64 50–65 47–66
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 29 31 0% 26–35 26–36 24–37 22–39

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0% 100%  
89 0.1% 99.9%  
90 0.4% 99.8%  
91 0.3% 99.4%  
92 2% 99.1%  
93 2% 98%  
94 3% 96%  
95 4% 93%  
96 4% 89%  
97 7% 84%  
98 10% 77%  
99 9% 67% Median
100 9% 57%  
101 7% 49%  
102 6% 41%  
103 11% 35%  
104 11% 24%  
105 7% 13%  
106 3% 7% Last Result
107 2% 4%  
108 0.7% 2%  
109 0.5% 1.0%  
110 0.4% 0.5%  
111 0.1% 0.1%  
112 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
82 0% 100%  
83 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
84 0% 99.8%  
85 0.4% 99.8% Majority
86 1.1% 99.4%  
87 2% 98%  
88 3% 97%  
89 7% 94%  
90 4% 87%  
91 10% 84%  
92 7% 73%  
93 6% 67% Median
94 12% 60%  
95 13% 48%  
96 6% 35%  
97 7% 29%  
98 6% 22%  
99 8% 15%  
100 2% 8%  
101 3% 6%  
102 2% 3%  
103 0.5% 1.0%  
104 0.3% 0.6%  
105 0.3% 0.3%  
106 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne – Rødt

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100% Last Result
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 0.4% 99.8%  
79 2% 99.3%  
80 3% 98%  
81 3% 95%  
82 5% 92%  
83 5% 87%  
84 13% 81%  
85 6% 69% Median, Majority
86 11% 63%  
87 11% 52%  
88 8% 41%  
89 8% 33%  
90 9% 26%  
91 5% 17%  
92 4% 12%  
93 2% 8%  
94 3% 6%  
95 2% 3%  
96 0.9% 1.3%  
97 0.3% 0.4%  
98 0.1% 0.2%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100% Last Result
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.2% 99.8%  
77 0.7% 99.6%  
78 3% 98.9%  
79 4% 96%  
80 5% 93%  
81 4% 88%  
82 10% 84%  
83 8% 74%  
84 10% 66% Median
85 8% 56% Majority
86 11% 47%  
87 8% 37%  
88 8% 28%  
89 8% 20%  
90 3% 13%  
91 3% 10%  
92 2% 7%  
93 2% 4%  
94 1.3% 2%  
95 0.5% 0.8%  
96 0.2% 0.3%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne – Venstre

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.5% 99.8%  
77 0.5% 99.3%  
78 0.7% 98.8%  
79 1.3% 98%  
80 3% 97%  
81 6% 94%  
82 7% 88%  
83 6% 81% Median
84 10% 75%  
85 10% 65% Majority
86 15% 56%  
87 9% 41%  
88 11% 32%  
89 7% 21%  
90 5% 14%  
91 5% 9%  
92 2% 4%  
93 1.0% 2%  
94 0.6% 1.1%  
95 0.2% 0.4%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
98 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100% Last Result
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.2% 99.8%  
75 0.6% 99.6%  
76 1.0% 98.9%  
77 2% 98%  
78 5% 96%  
79 5% 91%  
80 7% 86%  
81 11% 79%  
82 9% 68%  
83 15% 59% Median
84 10% 44%  
85 10% 35% Majority
86 6% 25%  
87 7% 19%  
88 6% 12%  
89 3% 6%  
90 1.3% 3%  
91 0.7% 2%  
92 0.5% 1.2%  
93 0.5% 0.7%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.3% 99.8%  
73 0.9% 99.6%  
74 2% 98.7%  
75 3% 97%  
76 2% 94%  
77 4% 92%  
78 5% 88%  
79 9% 83%  
80 8% 74%  
81 8% 67% Median
82 11% 59%  
83 11% 48%  
84 6% 37%  
85 13% 31% Majority
86 5% 19%  
87 5% 13%  
88 3% 8%  
89 3% 5%  
90 2% 2%  
91 0.4% 0.6%  
92 0.1% 0.2%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.1% 99.8% Last Result
73 0.5% 99.7%  
74 0.7% 99.2%  
75 1.4% 98%  
76 3% 97%  
77 7% 94%  
78 6% 87%  
79 9% 82%  
80 10% 73%  
81 12% 63%  
82 12% 51% Median
83 9% 39%  
84 10% 30%  
85 6% 20% Majority
86 4% 14%  
87 5% 10%  
88 2% 5%  
89 0.9% 2%  
90 0.3% 1.2%  
91 0.6% 0.9%  
92 0.2% 0.3%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.3% 99.8%  
70 0.5% 99.6%  
71 0.7% 99.1%  
72 2% 98%  
73 4% 97%  
74 4% 93%  
75 7% 89% Last Result
76 6% 82%  
77 10% 76%  
78 13% 66%  
79 13% 53% Median
80 9% 40%  
81 6% 31%  
82 12% 25%  
83 6% 14%  
84 2% 7%  
85 3% 5% Majority
86 1.2% 2%  
87 0.5% 1.0%  
88 0.3% 0.5%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.2% 99.9%  
62 0.3% 99.7%  
63 0.7% 99.4%  
64 2% 98.7%  
65 4% 96% Last Result
66 8% 93%  
67 9% 84%  
68 11% 76%  
69 10% 64%  
70 11% 54% Median
71 18% 43%  
72 8% 25%  
73 6% 18%  
74 4% 12%  
75 4% 8%  
76 1.2% 3%  
77 1.0% 2%  
78 0.6% 1.1%  
79 0.3% 0.5%  
80 0.2% 0.2%  
81 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.3% 99.8%  
61 1.0% 99.6%  
62 2% 98.6%  
63 1.4% 97%  
64 3% 96%  
65 6% 93%  
66 4% 87%  
67 12% 83%  
68 9% 71%  
69 8% 62%  
70 10% 54% Median
71 15% 44%  
72 9% 29%  
73 8% 20%  
74 4% 12%  
75 2% 8%  
76 3% 6%  
77 1.4% 2% Last Result
78 0.4% 0.9%  
79 0.3% 0.5%  
80 0.2% 0.2%  
81 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.3% 99.9%  
56 1.0% 99.6%  
57 1.2% 98.6%  
58 2% 97%  
59 4% 95%  
60 6% 91%  
61 10% 85%  
62 15% 75% Last Result
63 17% 60%  
64 9% 43% Median
65 9% 35%  
66 6% 25%  
67 8% 19%  
68 5% 11%  
69 4% 6%  
70 0.7% 2%  
71 0.5% 1.1%  
72 0.4% 0.7%  
73 0.3% 0.3%  
74 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0% 100%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 0.9% 99.9%  
48 0.5% 99.0%  
49 0.6% 98%  
50 0.9% 98%  
51 3% 97%  
52 4% 94%  
53 7% 90%  
54 6% 83%  
55 6% 77%  
56 13% 71% Median
57 10% 58%  
58 7% 48%  
59 11% 42%  
60 7% 31%  
61 9% 24%  
62 6% 15%  
63 4% 9%  
64 1.2% 5%  
65 2% 4%  
66 1.2% 2%  
67 0.1% 0.4% Last Result
68 0.2% 0.2%  
69 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100%  
20 0.1% 99.9%  
21 0.3% 99.9%  
22 0.5% 99.6%  
23 1.1% 99.0%  
24 1.1% 98%  
25 2% 97%  
26 7% 95%  
27 6% 89%  
28 7% 83%  
29 12% 76% Last Result, Median
30 12% 64%  
31 11% 53%  
32 13% 42%  
33 10% 29%  
34 5% 18%  
35 7% 14%  
36 3% 7%  
37 2% 4%  
38 1.2% 2%  
39 0.7% 1.1%  
40 0.1% 0.4%  
41 0.2% 0.2%  
42 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations