Opinion Poll by Norstat for NRK, 8–14 August 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 30.8% 27.1% 25.3–29.0% 24.8–29.5% 24.3–30.0% 23.5–30.9%
Høyre 26.8% 23.8% 22.1–25.6% 21.6–26.2% 21.2–26.6% 20.4–27.5%
Fremskrittspartiet 16.3% 16.7% 15.3–18.4% 14.8–18.8% 14.5–19.3% 13.8–20.1%
Senterpartiet 5.5% 9.2% 8.0–10.5% 7.7–10.8% 7.5–11.2% 7.0–11.8%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 4.1% 5.2% 4.3–6.2% 4.1–6.5% 3.9–6.8% 3.6–7.3%
Kristelig Folkeparti 5.6% 5.1% 4.2–6.1% 4.0–6.4% 3.8–6.6% 3.5–7.2%
Miljøpartiet de Grønne 2.8% 4.6% 3.9–5.6% 3.6–5.9% 3.5–6.2% 3.1–6.7%
Venstre 5.2% 3.9% 3.2–4.8% 3.0–5.1% 2.8–5.3% 2.5–5.8%
Rødt 1.1% 1.8% 1.3–2.5% 1.2–2.7% 1.1–2.9% 0.9–3.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 55 49 46–53 46–54 45–54 44–56
Høyre 48 41 38–46 38–47 37–48 35–50
Fremskrittspartiet 29 31 28–33 28–34 27–36 25–37
Senterpartiet 10 16 13–19 13–19 13–20 12–21
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 7 9 7–11 7–11 2–12 2–13
Kristelig Folkeparti 10 9 7–10 2–11 2–11 2–13
Miljøpartiet de Grønne 1 8 3–10 2–10 1–11 1–12
Venstre 9 6 1–8 1–9 1–9 1–10
Rødt 0 1 1 1–2 0–2 0–2

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100%  
43 0.2% 99.9%  
44 0.6% 99.8%  
45 2% 99.1%  
46 10% 97%  
47 15% 88%  
48 20% 72%  
49 8% 52% Median
50 14% 44%  
51 9% 30%  
52 7% 21%  
53 5% 14%  
54 7% 9%  
55 1.1% 2% Last Result
56 0.9% 1.3%  
57 0.4% 0.5%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.2% 100%  
35 0.3% 99.7%  
36 0.5% 99.5%  
37 2% 99.0%  
38 9% 97%  
39 10% 89%  
40 12% 78%  
41 17% 66% Median
42 13% 49%  
43 12% 35%  
44 4% 23%  
45 5% 19%  
46 5% 14%  
47 5% 8%  
48 2% 4% Last Result
49 1.2% 2%  
50 0.6% 0.7%  
51 0.1% 0.2%  
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.4% 99.9%  
25 0.3% 99.6%  
26 1.1% 99.2%  
27 3% 98%  
28 20% 96%  
29 12% 76% Last Result
30 13% 64%  
31 13% 51% Median
32 13% 38%  
33 17% 25%  
34 4% 8%  
35 0.8% 4%  
36 2% 3%  
37 0.9% 1.2%  
38 0.2% 0.3%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100% Last Result
11 0.3% 99.9%  
12 2% 99.7%  
13 9% 98%  
14 9% 88%  
15 18% 79%  
16 24% 61% Median
17 15% 38%  
18 11% 23%  
19 8% 12%  
20 2% 4%  
21 1.3% 2%  
22 0.3% 0.3%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.3% 100%  
2 3% 99.7%  
3 0% 97%  
4 0% 97%  
5 0% 97%  
6 0.2% 97%  
7 8% 97% Last Result
8 21% 89%  
9 27% 68% Median
10 24% 41%  
11 12% 16%  
12 3% 4%  
13 0.7% 0.8%  
14 0.2% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 5% 99.9%  
3 0.8% 95%  
4 0% 94%  
5 0% 94%  
6 0.2% 94%  
7 9% 94%  
8 22% 85%  
9 29% 63% Median
10 26% 34% Last Result
11 6% 9%  
12 2% 2%  
13 0.5% 0.6%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet de Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet de Grønne page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 4% 100% Last Result
2 5% 96%  
3 4% 91%  
4 4% 87%  
5 0% 83%  
6 0.2% 83%  
7 17% 82%  
8 30% 65% Median
9 19% 35%  
10 13% 16%  
11 2% 3%  
12 1.1% 1.2%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 11% 99.9%  
2 32% 89%  
3 6% 57%  
4 0% 51%  
5 0% 51%  
6 2% 51% Median
7 18% 49%  
8 24% 32%  
9 6% 8% Last Result
10 1.4% 2%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100% Last Result
1 90% 96% Median
2 7% 7%  
3 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 106 102 100% 97–107 96–108 95–109 93–111
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne – Venstre 97 94 99.5% 89–97 87–98 87–99 85–102
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne 83 90 96% 86–95 85–98 84–98 81–100
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 96 86 66% 81–91 80–92 79–93 76–95
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne – Rødt 73 83 32% 78–88 77–89 76–90 74–92
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne 73 82 21% 77–87 76–88 75–89 73–91
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 72 75 0.3% 72–80 71–81 69–82 67–84
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 75 74 0.1% 70–78 69–80 68–81 66–82
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 72 74 0.1% 71–79 70–80 68–81 66–83
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 77 72 0% 68–76 67–78 66–79 64–82
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 65 65 0% 62–69 61–71 61–72 59–73
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 62 58 0% 55–62 54–63 54–64 50–67
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 67 55 0% 51–59 50–61 49–62 46–65
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 29 29 0% 26–34 24–35 23–36 20–37

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
90 0% 100%  
91 0.1% 99.9%  
92 0.4% 99.9%  
93 0.5% 99.5%  
94 0.7% 99.0%  
95 2% 98%  
96 4% 97%  
97 5% 93%  
98 5% 88%  
99 6% 83%  
100 11% 77%  
101 8% 66%  
102 12% 58%  
103 12% 46% Median
104 10% 34%  
105 8% 24%  
106 4% 16% Last Result
107 3% 12%  
108 6% 9%  
109 1.3% 3%  
110 0.7% 2%  
111 0.5% 0.9%  
112 0.1% 0.4%  
113 0.2% 0.3%  
114 0% 0.1%  
115 0% 0.1%  
116 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne – Venstre

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.1% 99.9%  
84 0.2% 99.7%  
85 0.7% 99.5% Majority
86 1.1% 98.8%  
87 3% 98%  
88 4% 95%  
89 3% 91%  
90 6% 88%  
91 6% 82%  
92 11% 76%  
93 11% 64%  
94 13% 53%  
95 12% 41% Median
96 14% 29%  
97 9% 15% Last Result
98 2% 6%  
99 1.4% 4%  
100 1.1% 2%  
101 0.6% 1.3%  
102 0.4% 0.6%  
103 0.1% 0.2%  
104 0.1% 0.1%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 99.9%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.2% 99.9%  
80 0.2% 99.7%  
81 0.3% 99.6%  
82 0.6% 99.3%  
83 1.0% 98.7% Last Result
84 2% 98%  
85 6% 96% Majority
86 5% 90%  
87 5% 85%  
88 10% 80%  
89 16% 70%  
90 9% 55%  
91 6% 46% Median
92 12% 40%  
93 5% 28%  
94 8% 23%  
95 5% 15%  
96 3% 10%  
97 1.2% 7%  
98 4% 6%  
99 0.7% 1.3%  
100 0.4% 0.6%  
101 0.2% 0.2%  
102 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.4% 99.8%  
77 0.7% 99.5%  
78 1.1% 98.8%  
79 2% 98%  
80 5% 96%  
81 4% 91%  
82 4% 86%  
83 4% 82%  
84 11% 78%  
85 10% 66% Majority
86 9% 57%  
87 10% 48% Median
88 10% 37%  
89 13% 28%  
90 5% 15%  
91 3% 10%  
92 5% 7%  
93 1.2% 3%  
94 0.7% 1.4%  
95 0.4% 0.7%  
96 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
97 0.1% 0.2%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne – Rødt

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 99.9%  
71 0% 99.9%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.1% 99.8% Last Result
74 0.5% 99.7%  
75 0.8% 99.2%  
76 1.3% 98%  
77 5% 97%  
78 3% 92%  
79 5% 90%  
80 13% 84%  
81 10% 71%  
82 10% 62%  
83 9% 51% Median
84 10% 42%  
85 11% 32% Majority
86 4% 21%  
87 4% 17%  
88 4% 13%  
89 5% 9%  
90 2% 4%  
91 1.0% 2%  
92 0.6% 1.0%  
93 0.3% 0.4%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 99.9%  
70 0% 99.9%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.2% 99.8%  
73 0.5% 99.6% Last Result
74 0.8% 99.2%  
75 1.4% 98%  
76 5% 97%  
77 3% 92%  
78 6% 90%  
79 12% 83%  
80 11% 72%  
81 11% 61%  
82 8% 50% Median
83 10% 42%  
84 11% 32%  
85 4% 21% Majority
86 4% 17%  
87 4% 13%  
88 4% 9%  
89 2% 4%  
90 1.1% 2%  
91 0.6% 1.0%  
92 0.3% 0.4%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.5% 99.7%  
68 0.8% 99.3%  
69 1.2% 98%  
70 1.4% 97%  
71 2% 96%  
72 10% 94% Last Result
73 14% 84%  
74 12% 70%  
75 13% 58% Median
76 11% 46%  
77 11% 34%  
78 6% 23%  
79 6% 17%  
80 3% 11%  
81 4% 8%  
82 3% 4%  
83 0.9% 2%  
84 0.6% 0.9%  
85 0.2% 0.3% Majority
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.2% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.8%  
66 0.7% 99.7%  
67 0.7% 99.0%  
68 2% 98%  
69 4% 96%  
70 4% 92%  
71 10% 88%  
72 10% 77%  
73 16% 68%  
74 10% 52% Median
75 7% 41% Last Result
76 13% 35%  
77 8% 22%  
78 4% 13%  
79 5% 10%  
80 2% 5%  
81 2% 3%  
82 0.6% 1.1%  
83 0.3% 0.5%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0.1% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.5% 99.7%  
67 0.8% 99.2%  
68 1.2% 98%  
69 1.5% 97%  
70 2% 96%  
71 10% 94%  
72 14% 84% Last Result
73 13% 70%  
74 12% 57% Median
75 11% 45%  
76 12% 34%  
77 6% 23%  
78 6% 17%  
79 2% 11%  
80 4% 8%  
81 2% 4%  
82 0.9% 2%  
83 0.7% 0.9%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0% 0.1% Majority
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.3% 99.9%  
64 0.4% 99.7%  
65 0.5% 99.3%  
66 2% 98.8%  
67 4% 97%  
68 6% 93%  
69 6% 87%  
70 4% 81%  
71 11% 77%  
72 17% 65% Median
73 11% 48%  
74 11% 37%  
75 10% 26%  
76 6% 16%  
77 3% 10% Last Result
78 3% 6%  
79 1.0% 3%  
80 1.1% 2%  
81 0.6% 1.2%  
82 0.4% 0.7%  
83 0.2% 0.3%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 0.3% 99.9%  
59 0.8% 99.7%  
60 1.4% 98.9%  
61 5% 98%  
62 7% 92%  
63 13% 86%  
64 19% 72%  
65 5% 53% Last Result, Median
66 15% 48%  
67 9% 33%  
68 9% 24%  
69 6% 14%  
70 3% 8%  
71 2% 5%  
72 2% 3%  
73 0.7% 1.1%  
74 0.3% 0.4%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.2% 99.8%  
50 0.2% 99.6%  
51 0.3% 99.4%  
52 0.4% 99.1%  
53 1.0% 98.7%  
54 4% 98%  
55 8% 94%  
56 14% 86%  
57 11% 72%  
58 20% 61% Median
59 10% 41%  
60 7% 31%  
61 6% 24%  
62 10% 18% Last Result
63 4% 8%  
64 1.4% 4%  
65 1.0% 2%  
66 0.5% 1.1%  
67 0.4% 0.6%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 0.1% 99.8%  
46 0.3% 99.7%  
47 1.0% 99.5%  
48 0.6% 98%  
49 2% 98%  
50 5% 96%  
51 3% 91%  
52 8% 88%  
53 11% 80%  
54 10% 68%  
55 14% 59%  
56 7% 45% Median
57 8% 38%  
58 7% 30%  
59 14% 23%  
60 4% 10%  
61 2% 5%  
62 1.0% 3%  
63 1.0% 2%  
64 0.8% 1.4%  
65 0.4% 0.6%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
68 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.4% 99.9%  
20 0.7% 99.5%  
21 0.4% 98.8%  
22 0.6% 98%  
23 1.1% 98%  
24 2% 97%  
25 5% 95%  
26 7% 90%  
27 7% 83%  
28 17% 75%  
29 10% 58% Last Result
30 11% 49%  
31 8% 37% Median
32 6% 29%  
33 9% 23%  
34 8% 14%  
35 3% 6%  
36 2% 3%  
37 0.7% 1.2%  
38 0.3% 0.5%  
39 0.1% 0.2%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations