Opinion Poll by Norstat for NRK, 15–21 August 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 30.8% 29.0% 27.0–31.2% 26.4–31.8% 25.9–32.3% 25.0–33.3%
Høyre 26.8% 22.4% 20.6–24.4% 20.1–25.0% 19.6–25.5% 18.8–26.5%
Fremskrittspartiet 16.3% 14.2% 12.7–15.9% 12.3–16.4% 11.9–16.8% 11.2–17.7%
Senterpartiet 5.5% 9.5% 8.3–11.0% 8.0–11.4% 7.7–11.8% 7.1–12.6%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 4.1% 5.5% 4.6–6.8% 4.4–7.1% 4.1–7.4% 3.7–8.0%
Kristelig Folkeparti 5.6% 5.2% 4.3–6.3% 4.0–6.7% 3.8–7.0% 3.4–7.5%
Miljøpartiet de Grønne 2.8% 4.4% 3.6–5.5% 3.3–5.8% 3.2–6.1% 2.8–6.6%
Venstre 5.2% 4.0% 3.2–5.1% 3.0–5.3% 2.8–5.6% 2.5–6.2%
Rødt 1.1% 2.7% 2.1–3.6% 1.9–3.9% 1.8–4.1% 1.5–4.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 55 53 49–57 49–59 48–60 46–62
Høyre 48 40 37–44 36–45 34–46 33–47
Fremskrittspartiet 29 27 24–29 23–29 22–31 19–33
Senterpartiet 10 17 15–19 14–19 13–20 12–22
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 7 10 8–12 8–13 7–13 2–14
Kristelig Folkeparti 10 9 7–11 7–11 2–12 2–13
Miljøpartiet de Grønne 1 8 3–9 2–10 1–10 1–11
Venstre 9 3 1–9 1–9 1–9 1–10
Rødt 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–7

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.6% 99.8%  
47 1.0% 99.2%  
48 2% 98%  
49 9% 96%  
50 9% 87%  
51 7% 78%  
52 16% 71%  
53 15% 55% Median
54 12% 39%  
55 9% 27% Last Result
56 6% 18%  
57 3% 11%  
58 1.3% 9%  
59 5% 7%  
60 1.0% 3%  
61 1.0% 2%  
62 0.5% 0.7%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 1.3% 99.9%  
34 1.5% 98.6%  
35 2% 97%  
36 3% 95%  
37 17% 92%  
38 17% 76%  
39 8% 59%  
40 17% 51% Median
41 14% 34%  
42 6% 21%  
43 4% 14%  
44 5% 11%  
45 2% 6%  
46 3% 4%  
47 1.2% 2%  
48 0.2% 0.4% Last Result
49 0.1% 0.2%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.4% 99.8%  
20 0.6% 99.4%  
21 1.2% 98.8%  
22 2% 98%  
23 5% 96%  
24 14% 91%  
25 8% 77%  
26 12% 69%  
27 16% 57% Median
28 31% 41%  
29 5% 10% Last Result
30 2% 5%  
31 2% 3%  
32 0.7% 2%  
33 0.7% 0.9%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0.4% 100%  
12 0.6% 99.5%  
13 3% 99.0%  
14 2% 96%  
15 17% 94%  
16 17% 77%  
17 19% 60% Median
18 22% 41%  
19 14% 19%  
20 2% 4%  
21 0.9% 2%  
22 0.6% 0.9%  
23 0.2% 0.3%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 1.3% 99.9%  
3 0% 98.7%  
4 0% 98.7%  
5 0% 98.7%  
6 0.1% 98.7%  
7 1.3% 98.6% Last Result
8 18% 97%  
9 15% 79%  
10 20% 65% Median
11 32% 45%  
12 6% 13%  
13 7% 8%  
14 0.4% 0.5%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.2% 100%  
2 4% 99.8%  
3 0.3% 96%  
4 0% 95%  
5 0% 95%  
6 0.3% 95%  
7 6% 95%  
8 25% 89%  
9 23% 64% Median
10 22% 41% Last Result
11 14% 19%  
12 3% 5%  
13 2% 2%  
14 0.3% 0.4%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet de Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet de Grønne page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 5% 100% Last Result
2 1.4% 95%  
3 14% 94%  
4 0.6% 80%  
5 0% 79%  
6 0.4% 79%  
7 16% 79%  
8 37% 63% Median
9 17% 25%  
10 6% 8%  
11 1.4% 2%  
12 0.3% 0.3%  
13 0% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 12% 99.8%  
2 19% 87%  
3 21% 68% Median
4 0% 47%  
5 0% 47%  
6 0.4% 47%  
7 20% 47%  
8 14% 27%  
9 11% 13% Last Result
10 2% 2%  
11 0.3% 0.4%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 45% 100%  
2 53% 55% Median
3 0% 2%  
4 0% 2%  
5 0% 2%  
6 0.3% 2%  
7 2% 2%  
8 0.4% 0.5%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 106 97 99.8% 92–101 90–103 89–104 86–107
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne 83 96 99.6% 91–100 89–102 87–103 85–106
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne – Rødt 73 89 89% 84–93 82–95 81–97 78–99
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne 73 87 75% 82–91 80–93 79–95 76–97
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne – Venstre 97 87 72% 82–92 80–93 80–94 77–97
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 72 81 24% 77–86 76–88 74–89 72–91
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 96 80 9% 75–84 74–87 72–88 69–90
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 72 80 11% 75–85 74–86 73–87 70–90
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 75 79 8% 75–84 74–85 73–86 69–88
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 65 70 0% 67–74 66–76 64–76 62–80
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 77 66 0% 61–70 61–72 59–73 57–75
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 62 63 0% 59–67 58–69 57–70 55–72
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 67 53 0% 49–58 48–60 46–61 45–64
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 29 31 0% 27–35 25–36 23–37 21–39

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
83 0.1% 100%  
84 0.1% 99.9%  
85 0.1% 99.8% Majority
86 0.3% 99.7%  
87 0.6% 99.4%  
88 0.6% 98.8%  
89 1.2% 98%  
90 2% 97%  
91 1.1% 95%  
92 4% 94%  
93 5% 89%  
94 9% 84%  
95 16% 76%  
96 6% 60% Median
97 7% 54%  
98 8% 47%  
99 18% 38%  
100 6% 20%  
101 6% 14%  
102 2% 8%  
103 2% 6%  
104 3% 4%  
105 0.4% 2%  
106 0.7% 1.2% Last Result
107 0.3% 0.5%  
108 0.1% 0.2%  
109 0% 0.1%  
110 0% 0.1%  
111 0% 0.1%  
112 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
84 0.2% 99.7%  
85 0.3% 99.6% Majority
86 0.8% 99.3%  
87 0.9% 98%  
88 2% 97%  
89 0.8% 96%  
90 4% 95%  
91 9% 91%  
92 3% 82%  
93 5% 79%  
94 5% 75%  
95 8% 70%  
96 13% 62%  
97 10% 49% Median
98 19% 40%  
99 9% 21%  
100 3% 13%  
101 2% 10%  
102 5% 8%  
103 1.1% 3%  
104 0.7% 2%  
105 0.2% 1.0%  
106 0.5% 0.8%  
107 0.1% 0.3%  
108 0.1% 0.2%  
109 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne – Rødt

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100% Last Result
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0.2% 99.9%  
77 0.1% 99.8%  
78 0.4% 99.7%  
79 0.5% 99.3%  
80 1.3% 98.8%  
81 2% 98%  
82 2% 95%  
83 1.3% 93%  
84 2% 92%  
85 11% 89% Majority
86 8% 78%  
87 7% 70%  
88 4% 63%  
89 20% 58%  
90 9% 38% Median
91 9% 29%  
92 2% 20%  
93 9% 18%  
94 3% 9%  
95 1.2% 5%  
96 1.1% 4%  
97 1.2% 3%  
98 0.3% 2%  
99 1.1% 2%  
100 0.3% 0.5%  
101 0.1% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100% Last Result
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0.2% 99.9%  
76 0.2% 99.7%  
77 0.4% 99.5%  
78 0.8% 99.1%  
79 1.4% 98%  
80 3% 97%  
81 2% 94%  
82 3% 92%  
83 9% 89%  
84 5% 80%  
85 10% 75% Majority
86 6% 65%  
87 10% 59%  
88 19% 49% Median
89 7% 30%  
90 3% 22%  
91 10% 19%  
92 1.4% 9%  
93 3% 8%  
94 2% 5%  
95 1.2% 3%  
96 0.6% 2%  
97 1.1% 2%  
98 0.1% 0.4%  
99 0.3% 0.4%  
100 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne – Venstre

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 99.9%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.3% 99.8%  
77 0.3% 99.5%  
78 0.8% 99.2%  
79 0.6% 98%  
80 4% 98%  
81 2% 94%  
82 4% 92%  
83 7% 89%  
84 10% 82%  
85 6% 72% Majority
86 11% 66%  
87 7% 55% Median
88 11% 48%  
89 11% 37%  
90 8% 26%  
91 6% 17%  
92 6% 11%  
93 2% 5%  
94 0.9% 3%  
95 1.0% 2%  
96 0.5% 1.1%  
97 0.5% 0.6% Last Result
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.1% 99.8%  
72 0.6% 99.7% Last Result
73 0.6% 99.1%  
74 1.2% 98%  
75 1.1% 97%  
76 3% 96%  
77 6% 93%  
78 8% 87%  
79 9% 79%  
80 11% 71%  
81 11% 59%  
82 8% 49% Median
83 11% 40%  
84 6% 30%  
85 9% 24% Majority
86 7% 15%  
87 3% 9%  
88 1.5% 5%  
89 2% 4%  
90 0.4% 1.4%  
91 0.6% 1.0%  
92 0.1% 0.3%  
93 0.2% 0.2%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.6% 99.8%  
70 1.1% 99.2%  
71 0.3% 98%  
72 1.4% 98%  
73 1.3% 96%  
74 2% 95%  
75 4% 94%  
76 9% 90%  
77 5% 81%  
78 9% 76%  
79 9% 67% Median
80 20% 57%  
81 4% 37%  
82 7% 33%  
83 8% 26%  
84 9% 18%  
85 2% 9% Majority
86 1.1% 7%  
87 2% 6%  
88 2% 4%  
89 1.0% 2%  
90 0.3% 0.7%  
91 0.2% 0.4%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.1% 99.8%  
70 0.3% 99.7%  
71 0.8% 99.5%  
72 0.8% 98.7% Last Result
73 1.5% 98%  
74 3% 96%  
75 7% 94%  
76 2% 86%  
77 9% 84%  
78 9% 76%  
79 14% 67%  
80 12% 52% Median
81 9% 41%  
82 7% 32%  
83 8% 25%  
84 5% 16%  
85 3% 11% Majority
86 4% 8%  
87 2% 4%  
88 1.3% 2%  
89 0.4% 1.0%  
90 0.5% 0.6%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.2% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.8%  
69 0.2% 99.7%  
70 0.3% 99.4%  
71 0.9% 99.2%  
72 0.5% 98%  
73 2% 98%  
74 4% 95%  
75 8% 91% Last Result
76 5% 83%  
77 5% 78%  
78 16% 73%  
79 18% 57% Median
80 16% 39%  
81 6% 23%  
82 4% 17%  
83 3% 14%  
84 3% 10%  
85 5% 8% Majority
86 1.4% 3%  
87 0.7% 1.4%  
88 0.3% 0.7%  
89 0.2% 0.5%  
90 0.1% 0.3%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.1% 99.8%  
62 0.4% 99.7%  
63 0.9% 99.3%  
64 1.4% 98%  
65 2% 97% Last Result
66 4% 95%  
67 14% 91%  
68 13% 77%  
69 9% 64%  
70 17% 55% Median
71 8% 38%  
72 15% 30%  
73 2% 15%  
74 4% 12%  
75 2% 9%  
76 4% 6%  
77 0.8% 2%  
78 0.6% 1.3%  
79 0.1% 0.7%  
80 0.4% 0.6%  
81 0% 0.2%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.2% 99.7%  
58 1.0% 99.5%  
59 1.0% 98%  
60 1.2% 97%  
61 10% 96%  
62 7% 86%  
63 3% 79%  
64 8% 76%  
65 11% 68%  
66 10% 58%  
67 14% 48% Median
68 3% 34%  
69 16% 31%  
70 6% 15%  
71 3% 8%  
72 0.9% 5%  
73 2% 4%  
74 2% 2%  
75 0.3% 0.7%  
76 0.1% 0.4%  
77 0% 0.3% Last Result
78 0% 0.2%  
79 0.2% 0.2%  
80 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100%  
53 0.2% 99.9%  
54 0.2% 99.7%  
55 0.6% 99.5%  
56 0.9% 98.9%  
57 1.5% 98%  
58 2% 97%  
59 6% 94%  
60 17% 88%  
61 10% 71%  
62 5% 61% Last Result
63 8% 57% Median
64 16% 49%  
65 15% 33%  
66 4% 18%  
67 5% 14%  
68 2% 9%  
69 4% 7%  
70 2% 3%  
71 1.1% 2%  
72 0.4% 0.8%  
73 0.2% 0.3%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0% 99.9%  
43 0.1% 99.8%  
44 0.2% 99.7%  
45 2% 99.6%  
46 1.1% 98%  
47 1.0% 97%  
48 1.1% 96%  
49 7% 95%  
50 8% 88%  
51 5% 80%  
52 17% 76% Median
53 13% 58%  
54 8% 46%  
55 8% 38%  
56 14% 30%  
57 5% 15%  
58 3% 10%  
59 2% 8%  
60 3% 5%  
61 0.5% 3%  
62 0.8% 2%  
63 0.8% 1.3%  
64 0.2% 0.5%  
65 0.3% 0.4%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.3% 99.9%  
21 0.7% 99.6%  
22 0.6% 98.9%  
23 1.2% 98%  
24 0.4% 97%  
25 3% 97%  
26 4% 94%  
27 2% 90%  
28 13% 88%  
29 13% 75% Last Result, Median
30 10% 62%  
31 9% 52%  
32 11% 43%  
33 12% 32%  
34 6% 20%  
35 9% 14%  
36 2% 6%  
37 2% 4%  
38 1.3% 2%  
39 0.4% 0.8%  
40 0.2% 0.4%  
41 0.1% 0.2%  
42 0% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations