Opinion Poll by Ipsos MMI for Dagbladet, 21–23 August 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 30.8% 29.5% 27.6–31.5% 27.1–32.0% 26.7–32.5% 25.8–33.5%
Høyre 26.8% 23.3% 21.6–25.1% 21.1–25.7% 20.7–26.1% 19.9–27.0%
Fremskrittspartiet 16.3% 15.0% 13.6–16.6% 13.2–17.1% 12.9–17.5% 12.2–18.3%
Senterpartiet 5.5% 10.0% 8.8–11.4% 8.5–11.7% 8.2–12.1% 7.7–12.8%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 4.1% 5.9% 5.0–7.0% 4.8–7.3% 4.6–7.6% 4.2–8.2%
Kristelig Folkeparti 5.6% 4.4% 3.6–5.4% 3.4–5.7% 3.3–5.9% 2.9–6.4%
Rødt 1.1% 3.8% 3.1–4.7% 2.9–5.0% 2.7–5.2% 2.4–5.7%
Venstre 5.2% 3.4% 2.8–4.3% 2.6–4.6% 2.4–4.8% 2.2–5.3%
Miljøpartiet de Grønne 2.8% 2.6% 2.0–3.4% 1.9–3.6% 1.7–3.8% 1.5–4.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 55 54 51–57 50–58 50–60 47–62
Høyre 48 42 38–47 37–48 37–48 36–51
Fremskrittspartiet 29 28 25–30 24–31 23–32 22–34
Senterpartiet 10 18 16–20 15–21 15–22 14–23
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 7 11 9–13 9–14 8–14 7–15
Kristelig Folkeparti 10 8 2–10 2–10 2–11 2–12
Rødt 0 2 2–8 2–9 2–9 1–10
Venstre 9 3 1–8 1–8 1–8 0–9
Miljøpartiet de Grønne 1 1 1 1–2 0–3 0–7

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.2% 99.9%  
47 0.2% 99.7%  
48 0.6% 99.5%  
49 1.2% 98.8%  
50 5% 98%  
51 8% 93%  
52 14% 85%  
53 11% 71%  
54 19% 59% Median
55 18% 41% Last Result
56 8% 23%  
57 8% 15%  
58 3% 8%  
59 2% 5%  
60 1.2% 3%  
61 0.8% 2%  
62 0.3% 0.7%  
63 0.2% 0.3%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.3% 99.8%  
36 1.3% 99.5%  
37 5% 98%  
38 4% 93%  
39 4% 89%  
40 8% 85%  
41 19% 76%  
42 16% 57% Median
43 11% 42%  
44 7% 30%  
45 9% 23%  
46 4% 14%  
47 3% 10%  
48 5% 7% Last Result
49 0.9% 2%  
50 0.5% 1.0%  
51 0.4% 0.5%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0% 100%  
21 0.2% 99.9%  
22 0.6% 99.7%  
23 3% 99.2%  
24 5% 96%  
25 7% 91%  
26 6% 84%  
27 13% 77%  
28 28% 65% Median
29 20% 36% Last Result
30 7% 17%  
31 6% 10%  
32 2% 4%  
33 2% 2%  
34 0.4% 0.5%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.4% 99.9%  
14 1.4% 99.5%  
15 5% 98%  
16 6% 93%  
17 18% 87%  
18 24% 68% Median
19 23% 44%  
20 13% 21%  
21 4% 8%  
22 3% 4%  
23 0.8% 1.2%  
24 0.3% 0.4%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.2% 100%  
3 0% 99.8%  
4 0% 99.8%  
5 0% 99.8%  
6 0% 99.8%  
7 0.4% 99.8% Last Result
8 3% 99.5%  
9 18% 97%  
10 20% 79%  
11 33% 59% Median
12 13% 26%  
13 8% 13%  
14 4% 5%  
15 1.1% 1.3%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.4% 100%  
2 22% 99.6%  
3 0.5% 77%  
4 0% 77%  
5 0% 77%  
6 0% 77%  
7 5% 77%  
8 37% 72% Median
9 24% 35%  
10 8% 11% Last Result
11 3% 3%  
12 0.8% 0.9%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 2% 100%  
2 58% 98% Median
3 0% 39%  
4 0% 39%  
5 0% 39%  
6 0% 39%  
7 10% 39%  
8 21% 30%  
9 8% 9%  
10 0.8% 1.1%  
11 0.3% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 21% 98%  
2 27% 78%  
3 29% 51% Median
4 0% 22%  
5 0% 22%  
6 0% 22%  
7 5% 22%  
8 15% 17%  
9 2% 2% Last Result
10 0.3% 0.3%  
11 0% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet de Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet de Grønne page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 90% 97% Last Result, Median
2 2% 6%  
3 3% 4%  
4 0.1% 0.8%  
5 0% 0.8%  
6 0% 0.8%  
7 0.3% 0.8%  
8 0.4% 0.5%  
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 106 99 100% 94–103 92–104 92–105 89–107
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne 83 92 96% 86–95 85–97 83–99 82–101
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet de Grønne 73 88 83% 84–93 83–95 82–96 80–98
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 72 87 74% 83–92 82–94 81–95 79–97
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne 73 84 43% 80–89 78–90 77–91 76–95
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 72 83 37% 79–88 77–88 76–90 75–93
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet de Grønne 97 82 26% 77–86 75–87 74–88 72–90
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 96 81 17% 76–85 74–86 73–87 71–89
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 75 80 5% 74–83 73–85 72–86 70–88
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 65 72 0.1% 69–76 67–78 67–78 65–81
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 77 70 0% 66–75 64–76 63–77 62–79
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 62 65 0% 62–68 60–70 59–71 57–73
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 67 53 0% 48–57 46–58 45–60 43–62
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 29 29 0% 23–34 22–34 22–35 19–38

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0.1% 100%  
87 0.1% 99.9%  
88 0.2% 99.8%  
89 0.5% 99.6%  
90 0.4% 99.1%  
91 0.8% 98.7%  
92 3% 98%  
93 2% 95%  
94 4% 92%  
95 8% 88%  
96 11% 80%  
97 7% 70%  
98 9% 63%  
99 8% 54% Median
100 14% 46%  
101 7% 32%  
102 6% 25%  
103 9% 19%  
104 6% 9%  
105 2% 4%  
106 1.3% 2% Last Result
107 0.3% 0.6%  
108 0.1% 0.3%  
109 0.1% 0.2%  
110 0.1% 0.1%  
111 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0.1% 100%  
81 0.3% 99.9%  
82 0.4% 99.6%  
83 2% 99.2% Last Result
84 1.0% 97%  
85 6% 96% Majority
86 4% 91%  
87 2% 87%  
88 6% 84%  
89 6% 78%  
90 14% 72%  
91 8% 58%  
92 11% 50% Median
93 7% 39%  
94 17% 32%  
95 6% 15%  
96 2% 9%  
97 3% 7%  
98 0.7% 4%  
99 1.5% 3%  
100 0.8% 1.4%  
101 0.4% 0.5%  
102 0.1% 0.2%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet de Grønne

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100% Last Result
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.1% 99.8%  
80 0.7% 99.7%  
81 0.9% 99.0%  
82 2% 98%  
83 2% 97%  
84 11% 94%  
85 9% 83% Majority
86 6% 75% Median
87 3% 68%  
88 20% 65%  
89 6% 45%  
90 6% 40%  
91 16% 33%  
92 4% 17%  
93 5% 13%  
94 2% 8%  
95 3% 6%  
96 1.0% 3%  
97 0.9% 2%  
98 0.7% 1.1%  
99 0.2% 0.4%  
100 0.1% 0.2%  
101 0.1% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100% Last Result
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0.1% 100%  
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 0.1% 99.8%  
79 0.7% 99.6%  
80 0.9% 98.9%  
81 2% 98%  
82 3% 96%  
83 11% 94%  
84 8% 82%  
85 7% 74% Median, Majority
86 3% 67%  
87 21% 65%  
88 6% 44%  
89 5% 38%  
90 16% 32%  
91 4% 17%  
92 4% 12%  
93 2% 8%  
94 3% 6%  
95 0.9% 3%  
96 0.9% 2%  
97 0.7% 0.9%  
98 0.1% 0.3%  
99 0.1% 0.1%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100% Last Result
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.2% 99.8%  
76 0.5% 99.6%  
77 3% 99.1%  
78 2% 97%  
79 2% 95%  
80 6% 93%  
81 6% 87%  
82 12% 81%  
83 16% 70%  
84 10% 53% Median
85 5% 43% Majority
86 19% 38%  
87 5% 20%  
88 4% 15%  
89 5% 11%  
90 2% 5%  
91 1.4% 4%  
92 0.7% 2%  
93 0.9% 2%  
94 0.2% 0.7%  
95 0.3% 0.5%  
96 0.2% 0.2%  
97 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100% Last Result
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.2% 99.8%  
75 0.5% 99.6%  
76 3% 99.1%  
77 2% 96%  
78 2% 94%  
79 6% 92%  
80 6% 87%  
81 12% 81%  
82 16% 69%  
83 10% 53% Median
84 5% 43%  
85 19% 37% Majority
86 5% 18%  
87 3% 13%  
88 5% 10%  
89 2% 5%  
90 0.8% 3%  
91 0.7% 2%  
92 0.9% 1.4%  
93 0.1% 0.5%  
94 0.3% 0.5%  
95 0.2% 0.2%  
96 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet de Grønne

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.7% 99.7%  
73 0.9% 99.0%  
74 0.9% 98%  
75 3% 97%  
76 2% 94%  
77 4% 92%  
78 4% 88%  
79 16% 83%  
80 5% 67%  
81 6% 62%  
82 21% 56% Median
83 3% 35%  
84 7% 33%  
85 8% 26% Majority
86 11% 18%  
87 3% 6%  
88 2% 4%  
89 0.9% 2%  
90 0.7% 1.1%  
91 0.1% 0.4%  
92 0.1% 0.2%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.2% 99.8%  
71 0.7% 99.6%  
72 0.9% 98.9%  
73 1.0% 98%  
74 3% 97%  
75 2% 94%  
76 5% 92%  
77 4% 87%  
78 16% 83%  
79 6% 67%  
80 6% 60%  
81 20% 55% Median
82 3% 35%  
83 6% 32%  
84 9% 25%  
85 11% 17% Majority
86 2% 6%  
87 2% 3%  
88 0.9% 2%  
89 0.7% 1.0%  
90 0.1% 0.3%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.2% 99.9%  
70 0.4% 99.7%  
71 0.9% 99.4%  
72 2% 98%  
73 5% 96%  
74 3% 92%  
75 3% 89% Last Result
76 6% 85%  
77 6% 79%  
78 9% 73%  
79 9% 64%  
80 16% 55% Median
81 10% 39%  
82 14% 29%  
83 6% 15%  
84 3% 9%  
85 2% 5% Majority
86 2% 4%  
87 0.7% 2%  
88 1.0% 1.3%  
89 0.2% 0.3%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.2% 99.9%  
64 0.2% 99.8%  
65 0.5% 99.6% Last Result
66 0.8% 99.1%  
67 4% 98%  
68 3% 94%  
69 9% 90%  
70 9% 82%  
71 12% 73%  
72 18% 60% Median
73 6% 42%  
74 16% 36%  
75 7% 20%  
76 4% 13%  
77 4% 9%  
78 3% 5%  
79 1.0% 2%  
80 0.5% 1.3%  
81 0.3% 0.7%  
82 0.3% 0.5%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.3% 99.8%  
62 0.4% 99.6%  
63 2% 99.2%  
64 2% 97%  
65 4% 95%  
66 8% 91%  
67 4% 82%  
68 9% 78%  
69 13% 69%  
70 14% 55% Median
71 6% 41%  
72 10% 35%  
73 7% 25%  
74 6% 18%  
75 6% 12%  
76 2% 6%  
77 3% 4% Last Result
78 0.4% 1.1%  
79 0.4% 0.7%  
80 0.1% 0.3%  
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.2% 99.9%  
57 0.3% 99.7%  
58 0.4% 99.4%  
59 3% 99.0%  
60 2% 96%  
61 3% 94%  
62 10% 90% Last Result
63 16% 81%  
64 11% 65%  
65 12% 54% Median
66 18% 42%  
67 9% 24%  
68 8% 15%  
69 2% 8%  
70 2% 5%  
71 2% 4%  
72 0.8% 2%  
73 0.9% 1.3%  
74 0.2% 0.4%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.2% 99.8%  
43 0.3% 99.7%  
44 1.2% 99.3%  
45 2% 98%  
46 2% 96%  
47 3% 95%  
48 3% 92%  
49 9% 88%  
50 5% 80%  
51 10% 75%  
52 7% 64%  
53 19% 57% Median
54 9% 39%  
55 7% 30%  
56 5% 23%  
57 11% 18%  
58 3% 7%  
59 2% 4%  
60 2% 3%  
61 0.3% 0.9%  
62 0.2% 0.6%  
63 0.3% 0.3%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.2% 100%  
19 0.5% 99.7%  
20 0.5% 99.2%  
21 0.6% 98.7%  
22 8% 98%  
23 6% 90%  
24 2% 85%  
25 4% 82%  
26 4% 78%  
27 4% 74%  
28 8% 70%  
29 14% 62% Last Result, Median
30 19% 48%  
31 8% 29%  
32 7% 21%  
33 3% 14%  
34 8% 12%  
35 1.2% 3%  
36 0.9% 2%  
37 0.8% 1.3%  
38 0.4% 0.5%  
39 0.1% 0.2%  
40 0% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations