Opinion Poll by Respons Analyse for Aftenposten, Bergens Tidende and Adresseavisen, 18–23 August 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 30.8% 27.3% 25.5–29.2% 25.0–29.7% 24.6–30.1% 23.8–31.1%
Høyre 26.8% 25.1% 23.4–26.9% 22.9–27.4% 22.5–27.9% 21.7–28.8%
Fremskrittspartiet 16.3% 15.5% 14.1–17.1% 13.7–17.5% 13.4–17.9% 12.7–18.7%
Senterpartiet 5.5% 10.8% 9.6–12.2% 9.3–12.5% 9.0–12.9% 8.5–13.6%
Kristelig Folkeparti 5.6% 4.5% 3.8–5.5% 3.6–5.7% 3.4–6.0% 3.0–6.5%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 4.1% 4.5% 3.8–5.5% 3.6–5.7% 3.4–6.0% 3.0–6.5%
Miljøpartiet de Grønne 2.8% 3.9% 3.2–4.8% 3.0–5.1% 2.9–5.3% 2.6–5.8%
Venstre 5.2% 3.7% 3.0–4.6% 2.9–4.8% 2.7–5.1% 2.4–5.5%
Rødt 1.1% 3.2% 2.6–4.0% 2.4–4.3% 2.3–4.5% 2.0–4.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 55 50 46–54 46–55 45–56 44–58
Høyre 48 45 41–49 40–51 39–52 38–54
Fremskrittspartiet 29 28 26–31 25–32 24–33 23–34
Senterpartiet 10 19 17–22 17–23 16–23 15–25
Kristelig Folkeparti 10 8 2–10 2–10 2–11 1–12
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 7 8 2–10 2–10 1–11 1–12
Miljøpartiet de Grønne 1 3 1–9 1–9 1–10 1–10
Venstre 9 2 1–8 1–9 1–9 1–10
Rødt 0 2 1–2 1–8 1–8 1–9

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.3% 99.9%  
44 0.6% 99.6%  
45 4% 99.0%  
46 6% 95%  
47 12% 89%  
48 11% 77%  
49 10% 67%  
50 13% 57% Median
51 9% 44%  
52 12% 34%  
53 9% 23%  
54 5% 13%  
55 5% 8% Last Result
56 2% 3%  
57 0.9% 1.5%  
58 0.4% 0.6%  
59 0.2% 0.2%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.9% 99.8%  
39 2% 98.9%  
40 4% 97%  
41 5% 93%  
42 8% 89%  
43 7% 81%  
44 12% 74%  
45 14% 62% Median
46 11% 49%  
47 13% 38%  
48 6% 25% Last Result
49 10% 19%  
50 3% 9%  
51 3% 6%  
52 0.8% 3%  
53 0.5% 2%  
54 1.1% 1.4%  
55 0.2% 0.3%  
56 0% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.3% 99.9%  
23 0.7% 99.7%  
24 2% 99.0%  
25 4% 97%  
26 8% 93%  
27 12% 85%  
28 28% 73% Median
29 17% 46% Last Result
30 13% 29%  
31 7% 16%  
32 6% 9%  
33 2% 3%  
34 0.5% 1.0%  
35 0.4% 0.5%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.3% 99.9%  
15 1.4% 99.6%  
16 2% 98%  
17 6% 96%  
18 20% 90%  
19 21% 69% Median
20 15% 48%  
21 12% 33%  
22 16% 21%  
23 4% 6%  
24 1.1% 2%  
25 0.4% 0.8%  
26 0.3% 0.4%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.7% 100%  
2 17% 99.3%  
3 4% 82%  
4 0% 78%  
5 0% 78%  
6 0% 78%  
7 6% 78%  
8 34% 72% Median
9 25% 38%  
10 10% 13% Last Result
11 2% 3%  
12 0.6% 0.7%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 4% 100%  
2 19% 96%  
3 0% 76%  
4 0% 76%  
5 0% 76%  
6 0.1% 76%  
7 7% 76% Last Result
8 31% 69% Median
9 20% 38%  
10 14% 18%  
11 3% 4%  
12 0.5% 0.7%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet de Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet de Grønne page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 27% 100% Last Result
2 12% 73%  
3 11% 61% Median
4 4% 50%  
5 0% 46%  
6 0% 46%  
7 8% 46%  
8 28% 38%  
9 7% 10%  
10 3% 3%  
11 0.1% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100%  
1 20% 99.7%  
2 39% 80% Median
3 8% 41%  
4 0% 34%  
5 0% 34%  
6 0.2% 34%  
7 11% 34%  
8 15% 23%  
9 6% 7% Last Result
10 1.0% 1.1%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 18% 100%  
2 72% 82% Median
3 0% 10%  
4 0% 10%  
5 0% 10%  
6 0.1% 10%  
7 4% 10%  
8 6% 6%  
9 0.4% 0.5%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 106 105 100% 99–111 98–112 96–113 94–115
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne – Venstre 97 90 90% 84–95 83–96 82–98 80–100
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne 83 89 84% 83–94 81–95 81–96 78–98
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 96 85 59% 80–90 78–92 77–94 75–95
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne – Rødt 73 84 41% 79–89 77–91 75–92 74–94
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne 73 82 25% 76–86 75–89 73–90 71–92
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 72 79 10% 74–85 73–86 71–87 69–89
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 75 77 2% 72–82 70–83 70–84 68–86
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 72 77 2% 72–82 70–84 69–84 67–86
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 77 74 0.3% 69–79 69–81 67–82 66–84
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 65 70 0% 65–74 65–75 64–77 62–79
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 67 56 0% 51–62 49–64 49–65 46–67
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 62 57 0% 52–62 51–63 50–64 48–66
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 29 31 0% 25–36 23–38 22–38 21–40

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
91 0.1% 100%  
92 0.1% 99.9%  
93 0.2% 99.8%  
94 0.2% 99.7%  
95 1.2% 99.5%  
96 0.9% 98%  
97 2% 97%  
98 3% 95%  
99 6% 92%  
100 3% 87%  
101 5% 84%  
102 7% 79% Median
103 10% 72%  
104 11% 62%  
105 11% 51%  
106 4% 39% Last Result
107 8% 35%  
108 10% 27%  
109 6% 18%  
110 2% 12%  
111 3% 10%  
112 3% 7%  
113 2% 4%  
114 0.2% 2%  
115 0.9% 1.3%  
116 0.2% 0.4%  
117 0.2% 0.2%  
118 0.1% 0.1%  
119 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne – Venstre

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0.2% 99.9%  
79 0.1% 99.7%  
80 0.2% 99.6%  
81 1.0% 99.4%  
82 1.1% 98%  
83 4% 97%  
84 3% 93%  
85 4% 90% Majority
86 9% 86% Median
87 8% 77%  
88 8% 69%  
89 11% 62%  
90 7% 51%  
91 7% 44%  
92 9% 38%  
93 10% 28%  
94 7% 18%  
95 5% 12%  
96 2% 7%  
97 2% 5% Last Result
98 2% 3%  
99 0.3% 0.8%  
100 0.2% 0.6%  
101 0.2% 0.3%  
102 0.1% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0% 99.9%  
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 0.5% 99.7%  
79 0.4% 99.3%  
80 1.0% 98.9%  
81 4% 98%  
82 2% 93%  
83 3% 91% Last Result
84 4% 88%  
85 8% 84% Majority
86 7% 76%  
87 7% 70%  
88 6% 63% Median
89 9% 57%  
90 11% 48%  
91 9% 36%  
92 8% 27%  
93 7% 19%  
94 6% 13%  
95 2% 7%  
96 2% 5%  
97 0.8% 2%  
98 1.0% 1.4%  
99 0.3% 0.4%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.2% 99.8%  
75 0.5% 99.6%  
76 1.4% 99.2%  
77 2% 98%  
78 2% 96%  
79 4% 94%  
80 3% 90%  
81 7% 88%  
82 9% 81%  
83 6% 72% Median
84 7% 66%  
85 18% 59% Majority
86 9% 42%  
87 8% 33%  
88 4% 25%  
89 6% 22%  
90 6% 16%  
91 3% 9%  
92 2% 6%  
93 0.7% 4%  
94 1.1% 3%  
95 2% 2%  
96 0.2% 0.4% Last Result
97 0.1% 0.2%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne – Rødt

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.2% 99.8% Last Result
74 2% 99.6%  
75 1.1% 98%  
76 0.7% 97%  
77 2% 96%  
78 3% 94%  
79 6% 91%  
80 6% 84%  
81 4% 78%  
82 8% 75% Median
83 9% 67%  
84 18% 58%  
85 7% 41% Majority
86 6% 34%  
87 9% 28%  
88 7% 19%  
89 3% 12%  
90 4% 10%  
91 2% 6%  
92 2% 4%  
93 1.4% 2%  
94 0.5% 0.8%  
95 0.2% 0.4%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0% 99.9%  
70 0.2% 99.9%  
71 0.3% 99.7%  
72 2% 99.4%  
73 2% 98% Last Result
74 0.9% 96%  
75 3% 95%  
76 2% 92%  
77 9% 90%  
78 7% 81%  
79 4% 74%  
80 7% 71% Median
81 9% 63%  
82 14% 54%  
83 7% 40%  
84 8% 33%  
85 8% 25% Majority
86 7% 17%  
87 2% 10%  
88 2% 8%  
89 2% 5%  
90 1.1% 3%  
91 0.9% 2%  
92 0.7% 1.0%  
93 0.2% 0.3%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.2% 99.9%  
69 0.2% 99.7%  
70 0.3% 99.4%  
71 2% 99.2%  
72 2% 97% Last Result
73 2% 95%  
74 5% 93%  
75 7% 88%  
76 10% 82%  
77 9% 72%  
78 7% 62%  
79 7% 56% Median
80 11% 49%  
81 8% 38%  
82 8% 31%  
83 9% 23%  
84 4% 14%  
85 3% 10% Majority
86 4% 7%  
87 1.1% 3%  
88 1.0% 2%  
89 0.2% 0.6%  
90 0.1% 0.4%  
91 0.2% 0.3%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.3% 99.8%  
68 0.8% 99.6%  
69 1.1% 98.7%  
70 3% 98%  
71 3% 95%  
72 5% 91%  
73 4% 86%  
74 11% 82%  
75 7% 71% Last Result
76 9% 64%  
77 10% 55% Median
78 8% 45%  
79 9% 37%  
80 7% 28%  
81 6% 21%  
82 8% 15%  
83 4% 7%  
84 0.5% 3%  
85 0.8% 2% Majority
86 1.0% 1.3%  
87 0.2% 0.3%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.3% 99.9%  
67 0.4% 99.5%  
68 0.3% 99.2%  
69 2% 98.8%  
70 2% 97%  
71 3% 94%  
72 4% 92% Last Result
73 8% 88%  
74 12% 80%  
75 6% 68%  
76 11% 63%  
77 9% 52% Median
78 10% 43%  
79 8% 33%  
80 5% 26%  
81 7% 20%  
82 5% 13%  
83 2% 9%  
84 4% 6%  
85 0.6% 2% Majority
86 0.9% 1.2%  
87 0.1% 0.4%  
88 0.1% 0.3%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.2% 99.8%  
66 1.0% 99.5%  
67 2% 98.6%  
68 2% 97%  
69 6% 95%  
70 9% 89%  
71 7% 81%  
72 12% 74%  
73 5% 62% Median
74 17% 57%  
75 9% 40%  
76 6% 31%  
77 8% 25% Last Result
78 5% 16%  
79 4% 12%  
80 1.5% 7%  
81 2% 6%  
82 1.3% 4%  
83 0.6% 2%  
84 1.3% 2%  
85 0.1% 0.3% Majority
86 0% 0.2%  
87 0.2% 0.2%  
88 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.2% 99.9%  
62 0.5% 99.7%  
63 1.3% 99.2%  
64 3% 98%  
65 5% 95% Last Result
66 12% 90%  
67 6% 78%  
68 10% 72%  
69 9% 61% Median
70 11% 52%  
71 9% 41%  
72 7% 32%  
73 8% 26%  
74 11% 17%  
75 2% 7%  
76 1.2% 4%  
77 2% 3%  
78 0.3% 0.9%  
79 0.2% 0.6%  
80 0.2% 0.4%  
81 0.2% 0.2%  
82 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.3% 99.9%  
45 0% 99.7%  
46 0.2% 99.6%  
47 0.8% 99.5%  
48 1.0% 98.7%  
49 3% 98%  
50 2% 95%  
51 4% 93%  
52 4% 89%  
53 8% 85%  
54 8% 76%  
55 10% 68% Median
56 9% 58%  
57 8% 49%  
58 9% 41%  
59 10% 32%  
60 4% 22%  
61 5% 18%  
62 3% 13%  
63 4% 10%  
64 2% 5%  
65 0.9% 3%  
66 2% 2%  
67 0.3% 0.6% Last Result
68 0.2% 0.2%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0% 100%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 0.1% 99.8%  
48 0.5% 99.7%  
49 1.1% 99.2%  
50 2% 98%  
51 5% 96%  
52 3% 91%  
53 4% 89%  
54 6% 84%  
55 14% 78%  
56 7% 64%  
57 11% 57%  
58 10% 46% Median
59 6% 36%  
60 9% 30%  
61 6% 21%  
62 9% 15% Last Result
63 2% 6%  
64 3% 5%  
65 0.7% 1.3%  
66 0.3% 0.6%  
67 0.2% 0.3%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100%  
20 0.1% 99.9%  
21 0.7% 99.8%  
22 3% 99.2%  
23 3% 96%  
24 3% 93%  
25 3% 90%  
26 2% 87%  
27 4% 85%  
28 10% 81%  
29 8% 71% Last Result, Median
30 8% 63%  
31 10% 55%  
32 10% 45%  
33 9% 34%  
34 6% 25%  
35 6% 19%  
36 7% 14%  
37 2% 7%  
38 3% 5%  
39 2% 2%  
40 0.3% 0.7%  
41 0.2% 0.4%  
42 0.2% 0.2%  
43 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations