Opinion Poll by Norstat for Vårt Land, 22–28 August 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 30.8% 25.6% 23.9–27.5% 23.4–28.1% 22.9–28.5% 22.1–29.5%
Høyre 26.8% 24.2% 22.5–26.1% 22.0–26.6% 21.6–27.1% 20.8–28.0%
Fremskrittspartiet 16.3% 16.7% 15.3–18.4% 14.8–18.9% 14.5–19.3% 13.8–20.1%
Senterpartiet 5.5% 10.3% 9.1–11.7% 8.8–12.1% 8.5–12.4% 8.0–13.1%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 4.1% 5.2% 4.3–6.2% 4.1–6.5% 3.9–6.8% 3.5–7.3%
Miljøpartiet de Grønne 2.8% 5.2% 4.3–6.2% 4.1–6.5% 3.9–6.8% 3.5–7.3%
Kristelig Folkeparti 5.6% 4.9% 4.1–6.0% 3.9–6.3% 3.7–6.5% 3.4–7.1%
Rødt 1.1% 3.8% 3.1–4.7% 2.9–5.0% 2.7–5.2% 2.4–5.7%
Venstre 5.2% 3.1% 2.5–4.0% 2.3–4.2% 2.2–4.4% 1.9–4.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 55 47 44–51 43–51 42–52 40–54
Høyre 48 42 39–46 38–47 37–48 35–50
Fremskrittspartiet 29 29 28–33 27–33 27–34 25–36
Senterpartiet 10 18 15–20 15–21 14–22 13–23
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 7 9 7–11 2–11 2–12 1–13
Miljøpartiet de Grønne 1 9 7–11 7–11 3–12 1–13
Kristelig Folkeparti 10 8 7–11 2–11 2–12 2–12
Rødt 0 2 2–8 2–9 1–9 1–10
Venstre 9 1 1–3 0–7 0–7 0–8

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.2% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.8%  
40 0.8% 99.7%  
41 0.4% 98.9%  
42 2% 98%  
43 2% 97%  
44 12% 95%  
45 16% 82%  
46 12% 66%  
47 9% 54% Median
48 11% 45%  
49 12% 34%  
50 7% 22%  
51 11% 15%  
52 3% 5%  
53 0.9% 1.4%  
54 0.3% 0.6%  
55 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.4% 99.9%  
36 0.9% 99.5%  
37 2% 98.6%  
38 3% 97%  
39 7% 94%  
40 12% 87%  
41 11% 75%  
42 16% 64% Median
43 11% 49%  
44 11% 38%  
45 14% 27%  
46 8% 14%  
47 3% 6%  
48 1.1% 3% Last Result
49 0.9% 1.4%  
50 0.3% 0.5%  
51 0.1% 0.2%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.2% 99.8%  
25 0.6% 99.7%  
26 2% 99.1%  
27 4% 98%  
28 22% 94%  
29 27% 72% Last Result, Median
30 9% 45%  
31 16% 36%  
32 8% 20%  
33 7% 12%  
34 2% 5%  
35 2% 2%  
36 0.5% 0.8%  
37 0.2% 0.3%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0.3% 100%  
13 0.9% 99.7%  
14 3% 98.8%  
15 7% 96%  
16 12% 89%  
17 18% 77%  
18 28% 59% Median
19 10% 31%  
20 11% 21%  
21 5% 10%  
22 3% 5%  
23 0.8% 1.2%  
24 0.3% 0.4%  
25 0% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 1.0% 100%  
2 4% 99.0%  
3 0% 95%  
4 0% 95%  
5 0% 95%  
6 0.1% 95%  
7 6% 95% Last Result
8 30% 88%  
9 29% 58% Median
10 16% 29%  
11 8% 13%  
12 3% 4%  
13 0.9% 1.2%  
14 0.2% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet de Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet de Grønne page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.5% 100% Last Result
2 0.5% 99.5%  
3 2% 99.0%  
4 0.3% 97%  
5 0% 96%  
6 0% 96%  
7 8% 96%  
8 22% 89%  
9 36% 66% Median
10 19% 30%  
11 8% 12%  
12 3% 4%  
13 0.8% 0.9%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 6% 99.9%  
3 4% 94%  
4 0% 90%  
5 0% 90%  
6 0.1% 90%  
7 18% 90%  
8 29% 72% Median
9 12% 43%  
10 13% 31% Last Result
11 15% 18%  
12 3% 3%  
13 0.2% 0.3%  
14 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 3% 100%  
2 60% 97% Median
3 0% 37%  
4 0% 37%  
5 0% 37%  
6 3% 37%  
7 19% 34%  
8 9% 15%  
9 4% 5%  
10 0.7% 0.8%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 6% 100%  
1 50% 94% Median
2 29% 44%  
3 8% 15%  
4 0% 8%  
5 0% 8%  
6 0.5% 8%  
7 6% 7%  
8 1.2% 2%  
9 0.4% 0.4% Last Result
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 106 100 100% 96–105 95–106 94–108 92–111
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet de Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 97 91 98% 88–96 86–97 85–98 82–101
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet de Grønne – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti 83 91 94% 86–96 84–96 83–98 81–100
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet de Grønne – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 73 87 75% 82–91 81–92 79–93 77–96
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 96 82 25% 78–87 77–88 76–90 73–92
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet de Grønne – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 73 82 32% 78–87 76–88 75–89 73–91
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 72 78 2% 73–81 72–83 71–84 68–87
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 72 74 0% 70–78 68–79 67–80 65–82
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 75 73 0.1% 69–78 67–79 66–80 64–82
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 77 72 0.1% 69–77 67–78 67–79 65–82
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 65 65 0% 61–69 60–70 59–71 58–73
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 62 56 0% 52–59 51–60 49–61 47–63
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 67 53 0% 48–56 47–58 45–59 44–61
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 29 28 0% 24–32 22–33 22–34 20–36

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
89 0.1% 100%  
90 0.1% 99.9%  
91 0.2% 99.8%  
92 0.5% 99.5%  
93 0.8% 99.1%  
94 2% 98%  
95 2% 96%  
96 5% 94%  
97 4% 89%  
98 21% 85% Median
99 10% 64%  
100 9% 54%  
101 9% 45%  
102 13% 37%  
103 7% 24%  
104 6% 17%  
105 4% 11%  
106 2% 7% Last Result
107 0.7% 5%  
108 2% 4%  
109 0.6% 2%  
110 0.7% 1.4%  
111 0.4% 0.6%  
112 0.1% 0.2%  
113 0% 0.1%  
114 0% 0.1%  
115 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet de Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0.1% 100%  
80 0.1% 99.8%  
81 0.1% 99.8%  
82 0.3% 99.7%  
83 0.5% 99.4%  
84 0.8% 98.9%  
85 3% 98% Majority
86 2% 96%  
87 3% 93%  
88 7% 90%  
89 12% 83% Median
90 11% 71%  
91 18% 60%  
92 10% 42%  
93 7% 32%  
94 5% 25%  
95 9% 20%  
96 6% 11%  
97 2% 5% Last Result
98 2% 3%  
99 0.5% 2%  
100 0.5% 1.3%  
101 0.4% 0.9%  
102 0.3% 0.4%  
103 0.1% 0.2%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet de Grønne – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0% 100%  
79 0.1% 99.9%  
80 0.1% 99.9%  
81 0.3% 99.8%  
82 1.1% 99.5%  
83 2% 98% Last Result
84 2% 97%  
85 3% 94% Majority
86 5% 91%  
87 5% 86%  
88 12% 81%  
89 10% 69%  
90 6% 59%  
91 5% 53% Median
92 9% 47%  
93 13% 38%  
94 7% 24%  
95 4% 18%  
96 9% 14%  
97 2% 5%  
98 2% 3%  
99 0.4% 1.0%  
100 0.4% 0.5%  
101 0.1% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet de Grønne – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100% Last Result
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 99.9%  
76 0.2% 99.9%  
77 0.9% 99.7%  
78 0.3% 98.8%  
79 1.0% 98.5%  
80 1.2% 97%  
81 3% 96%  
82 4% 93%  
83 9% 89%  
84 5% 80%  
85 11% 75% Median, Majority
86 9% 64%  
87 17% 55%  
88 8% 38%  
89 15% 30%  
90 5% 15%  
91 3% 10%  
92 2% 7%  
93 3% 4%  
94 0.8% 2%  
95 0.4% 1.0%  
96 0.2% 0.6%  
97 0.2% 0.3%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.2% 99.9%  
73 0.2% 99.7%  
74 0.4% 99.4%  
75 0.8% 99.0%  
76 3% 98%  
77 2% 96%  
78 3% 93%  
79 5% 90%  
80 15% 85% Median
81 8% 70%  
82 17% 62%  
83 9% 45%  
84 11% 36%  
85 5% 25% Majority
86 9% 20%  
87 4% 11%  
88 3% 7%  
89 1.2% 4%  
90 1.0% 3%  
91 0.3% 1.5%  
92 0.9% 1.2%  
93 0.2% 0.3%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet de Grønne – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 99.9%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.2% 99.7% Last Result
74 0.6% 99.5%  
75 2% 98.9%  
76 2% 97%  
77 2% 95%  
78 4% 93%  
79 6% 88%  
80 9% 82%  
81 12% 73%  
82 13% 61%  
83 8% 49% Median
84 8% 40%  
85 13% 32% Majority
86 7% 19%  
87 6% 13%  
88 3% 7%  
89 2% 4%  
90 1.1% 2%  
91 0.2% 0.6%  
92 0.2% 0.4%  
93 0.2% 0.2%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.3% 99.8%  
68 0.4% 99.6%  
69 0.5% 99.1%  
70 0.5% 98.7%  
71 2% 98%  
72 2% 97% Last Result
73 6% 95%  
74 9% 89%  
75 5% 80%  
76 7% 75% Median
77 10% 68%  
78 18% 58%  
79 11% 40%  
80 12% 29%  
81 7% 17%  
82 3% 10%  
83 2% 7%  
84 3% 4%  
85 0.8% 2% Majority
86 0.5% 1.1%  
87 0.3% 0.6%  
88 0.1% 0.3%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.2% 99.8%  
65 0.4% 99.6%  
66 1.0% 99.1%  
67 1.1% 98%  
68 2% 97%  
69 4% 95%  
70 6% 90%  
71 8% 84%  
72 16% 76% Last Result
73 9% 60%  
74 9% 51% Median
75 7% 42%  
76 16% 35%  
77 8% 19%  
78 6% 11%  
79 2% 5%  
80 1.5% 3%  
81 0.6% 1.2%  
82 0.2% 0.6%  
83 0.2% 0.4%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0% 0% Majority

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.2% 99.9%  
64 1.0% 99.7%  
65 1.1% 98.6%  
66 2% 98%  
67 2% 95%  
68 3% 93%  
69 10% 90%  
70 10% 80%  
71 4% 70%  
72 12% 66%  
73 8% 54% Median
74 6% 47%  
75 4% 40% Last Result
76 12% 36%  
77 9% 24%  
78 6% 15%  
79 6% 10%  
80 2% 4%  
81 1.1% 2%  
82 0.4% 0.5%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0.1% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.3% 99.9%  
65 0.7% 99.5%  
66 1.3% 98.8%  
67 3% 98%  
68 4% 95%  
69 10% 91%  
70 10% 81%  
71 10% 70% Median
72 10% 60%  
73 17% 50%  
74 10% 33%  
75 8% 23%  
76 3% 15%  
77 5% 11% Last Result
78 2% 6%  
79 1.3% 4%  
80 1.1% 2%  
81 0.4% 1.1%  
82 0.5% 0.6%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.2% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.8%  
58 0.8% 99.6%  
59 2% 98.8%  
60 2% 96%  
61 8% 94%  
62 12% 86%  
63 10% 74%  
64 8% 63%  
65 10% 55% Last Result, Median
66 8% 45%  
67 9% 37%  
68 14% 28%  
69 9% 14%  
70 2% 5%  
71 1.5% 3%  
72 0.6% 1.2%  
73 0.2% 0.6%  
74 0.2% 0.4%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.2% 99.9%  
47 0.7% 99.7%  
48 0.8% 99.0%  
49 2% 98%  
50 0.7% 96%  
51 2% 96%  
52 4% 94%  
53 5% 89%  
54 19% 84%  
55 11% 65%  
56 16% 54% Median
57 9% 38%  
58 8% 29%  
59 11% 21%  
60 5% 10%  
61 3% 4%  
62 1.1% 2% Last Result
63 0.3% 0.7%  
64 0.3% 0.4%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.2% 99.9%  
44 0.5% 99.7%  
45 3% 99.1%  
46 0.9% 97%  
47 3% 96%  
48 3% 92%  
49 5% 90%  
50 6% 85%  
51 14% 79% Median
52 6% 64%  
53 20% 58%  
54 13% 39%  
55 12% 26%  
56 4% 14%  
57 4% 10%  
58 2% 6%  
59 1.4% 4%  
60 1.0% 2%  
61 1.0% 1.4%  
62 0.2% 0.4%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.2% 99.9%  
20 0.5% 99.6%  
21 1.4% 99.1%  
22 3% 98%  
23 3% 94%  
24 5% 92%  
25 7% 87%  
26 9% 79%  
27 16% 71% Median
28 9% 55%  
29 15% 46% Last Result
30 14% 31%  
31 6% 17%  
32 4% 11%  
33 4% 7%  
34 1.2% 4%  
35 1.0% 2%  
36 0.8% 1.3%  
37 0.3% 0.4%  
38 0.1% 0.2%  
39 0% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations