Opinion Poll by Respons Analyse for Aftenposten and Bergens Tidende, 28–30 August 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 30.8% 26.1% 24.4–28.0% 23.9–28.5% 23.5–29.0% 22.7–29.9%
Høyre 26.8% 24.0% 22.3–25.7% 21.8–26.3% 21.4–26.7% 20.6–27.6%
Fremskrittspartiet 16.3% 16.6% 15.1–18.2% 14.7–18.6% 14.4–19.0% 13.7–19.8%
Senterpartiet 5.5% 8.8% 7.7–10.0% 7.4–10.4% 7.2–10.7% 6.7–11.3%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 4.1% 6.2% 5.3–7.3% 5.1–7.6% 4.8–7.9% 4.5–8.4%
Kristelig Folkeparti 5.6% 5.4% 4.6–6.4% 4.3–6.7% 4.1–7.0% 3.8–7.5%
Venstre 5.2% 4.9% 4.1–5.9% 3.9–6.2% 3.7–6.4% 3.4–6.9%
Miljøpartiet de Grønne 2.8% 4.7% 3.9–5.7% 3.7–5.9% 3.5–6.2% 3.2–6.7%
Rødt 1.1% 2.4% 1.9–3.1% 1.7–3.4% 1.6–3.6% 1.4–3.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 55 48 44–51 44–52 43–53 43–54
Høyre 48 40 38–45 37–46 37–46 35–48
Fremskrittspartiet 29 29 27–33 26–34 26–35 25–35
Senterpartiet 10 15 12–17 12–18 12–18 11–19
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 7 10 9–12 9–12 8–13 7–14
Kristelig Folkeparti 10 9 8–10 7–11 7–12 2–12
Venstre 9 8 7–10 3–10 2–10 2–11
Miljøpartiet de Grønne 1 8 4–9 2–10 2–10 1–11
Rødt 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.2% 99.8%  
43 3% 99.6%  
44 8% 97%  
45 6% 89%  
46 10% 83%  
47 12% 73%  
48 21% 61% Median
49 14% 40%  
50 7% 26%  
51 12% 19%  
52 2% 7%  
53 4% 5%  
54 0.6% 0.8%  
55 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
56 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.1% 99.9%  
35 0.5% 99.9%  
36 1.4% 99.4%  
37 4% 98%  
38 15% 94%  
39 24% 79%  
40 6% 55% Median
41 10% 49%  
42 12% 39%  
43 7% 28%  
44 8% 20%  
45 4% 13%  
46 7% 9%  
47 1.5% 2%  
48 0.3% 0.6% Last Result
49 0.2% 0.4%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.2% 100%  
24 0.3% 99.8%  
25 0.2% 99.5%  
26 5% 99.3%  
27 7% 95%  
28 22% 88%  
29 18% 65% Last Result, Median
30 6% 48%  
31 8% 42%  
32 23% 34%  
33 6% 11%  
34 1.3% 5%  
35 4% 4%  
36 0.3% 0.4%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.2% 100% Last Result
11 1.3% 99.8%  
12 9% 98.5%  
13 26% 89%  
14 10% 63%  
15 24% 54% Median
16 14% 29%  
17 10% 15%  
18 4% 5%  
19 0.8% 1.0%  
20 0.1% 0.2%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.5% 100% Last Result
8 4% 99.4%  
9 23% 95%  
10 25% 73% Median
11 35% 48%  
12 9% 12%  
13 2% 3%  
14 0.8% 1.0%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.7% 100%  
3 1.3% 99.3%  
4 0% 98%  
5 0% 98%  
6 0% 98%  
7 5% 98%  
8 25% 93%  
9 38% 68% Median
10 20% 30% Last Result
11 6% 10%  
12 3% 3%  
13 0.3% 0.4%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.2% 100%  
2 4% 99.8%  
3 4% 96%  
4 0% 92%  
5 0% 92%  
6 1.4% 92%  
7 16% 91%  
8 42% 75% Median
9 22% 34% Last Result
10 9% 11%  
11 2% 2%  
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet de Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet de Grønne page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 2% 100% Last Result
2 4% 98%  
3 3% 94%  
4 2% 91%  
5 0% 89%  
6 0.1% 89%  
7 35% 89%  
8 29% 53% Median
9 17% 24%  
10 6% 7%  
11 0.6% 0.7%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100% Last Result
1 82% 99.8% Median
2 18% 18%  
3 0% 0.2%  
4 0% 0.2%  
5 0% 0.2%  
6 0.1% 0.2%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 106 102 100% 98–106 98–107 96–109 95–111
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet de Grønne 97 95 100% 91–98 90–99 89–100 87–101
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne 83 89 95% 86–94 84–94 84–95 81–97
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 96 88 78% 83–91 83–92 82–93 80–95
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne – Rødt 73 81 22% 78–86 77–86 76–87 74–89
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne 73 80 11% 77–85 76–85 75–86 73–87
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 72 74 0% 71–78 70–79 69–80 68–82
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 72 73 0% 69–77 68–78 68–78 67–80
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 75 71 0% 67–76 67–76 66–77 64–79
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 77 71 0% 66–75 66–76 65–77 63–78
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 65 62 0% 59–66 58–67 57–67 56–69
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 62 58 0% 55–62 54–63 54–63 53–65
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 67 57 0% 55–61 54–62 54–63 51–65
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 29 31 0% 28–35 27–36 26–37 25–39

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100%  
94 0.3% 99.9%  
95 0.6% 99.6%  
96 2% 99.1%  
97 2% 97%  
98 8% 95%  
99 9% 88%  
100 8% 78%  
101 14% 70% Median
102 7% 56%  
103 13% 49%  
104 17% 36%  
105 7% 19%  
106 6% 12% Last Result
107 2% 6%  
108 1.4% 4%  
109 0.8% 3%  
110 1.3% 2%  
111 0.2% 0.6%  
112 0.3% 0.4%  
113 0% 0.1%  
114 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet de Grønne

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0.2% 99.9%  
87 0.3% 99.8%  
88 0.4% 99.4%  
89 2% 99.0%  
90 7% 97%  
91 3% 91%  
92 13% 87%  
93 7% 75%  
94 7% 68% Median
95 18% 61%  
96 9% 43%  
97 11% 34% Last Result
98 14% 23%  
99 5% 10%  
100 4% 5%  
101 0.9% 1.1%  
102 0.2% 0.2%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0.1% 100%  
80 0.2% 99.9%  
81 0.3% 99.8%  
82 0.2% 99.5%  
83 2% 99.3% Last Result
84 3% 98%  
85 4% 95% Majority
86 15% 90%  
87 8% 75%  
88 6% 67%  
89 23% 61%  
90 6% 38% Median
91 5% 32%  
92 8% 27%  
93 7% 19%  
94 10% 13%  
95 1.0% 3%  
96 2% 2%  
97 0.4% 0.6%  
98 0.1% 0.2%  
99 0.1% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0.1% 100%  
79 0.2% 99.9%  
80 0.3% 99.7%  
81 0.9% 99.4%  
82 2% 98.5%  
83 9% 96%  
84 9% 87%  
85 6% 78% Majority
86 5% 71% Median
87 8% 66%  
88 17% 58%  
89 14% 42%  
90 9% 28%  
91 10% 19%  
92 5% 9%  
93 2% 4%  
94 0.4% 2%  
95 0.9% 1.1%  
96 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne – Rødt

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
74 0.9% 99.8%  
75 0.4% 98.9%  
76 2% 98%  
77 5% 96%  
78 10% 91%  
79 9% 81%  
80 14% 72%  
81 17% 58%  
82 8% 42% Median
83 5% 34%  
84 6% 29%  
85 9% 22% Majority
86 9% 13%  
87 2% 4%  
88 0.9% 1.5%  
89 0.3% 0.6%  
90 0.2% 0.3%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.2% 99.9%  
73 0.9% 99.6% Last Result
74 0.7% 98.7%  
75 2% 98%  
76 5% 96%  
77 11% 90%  
78 10% 79%  
79 12% 69%  
80 18% 57%  
81 8% 39% Median
82 3% 31%  
83 8% 28%  
84 9% 20%  
85 8% 11% Majority
86 2% 3%  
87 0.7% 1.1%  
88 0.2% 0.4%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0.2% 99.9%  
68 0.9% 99.8%  
69 4% 98.9%  
70 5% 95%  
71 14% 90%  
72 11% 77% Last Result
73 9% 66%  
74 18% 57% Median
75 7% 39%  
76 7% 32%  
77 13% 25%  
78 3% 13%  
79 7% 9%  
80 2% 3%  
81 0.4% 1.0%  
82 0.3% 0.6%  
83 0.2% 0.2%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0.2% 99.9%  
67 1.1% 99.7%  
68 4% 98.5%  
69 6% 95%  
70 16% 88%  
71 8% 73%  
72 9% 64% Last Result
73 18% 55% Median
74 7% 37%  
75 7% 30%  
76 13% 24%  
77 3% 11%  
78 7% 9%  
79 1.2% 2%  
80 0.5% 0.8%  
81 0.3% 0.4%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.2% 99.9%  
64 0.3% 99.7%  
65 1.5% 99.3%  
66 2% 98%  
67 8% 96%  
68 7% 88%  
69 8% 81%  
70 8% 73%  
71 21% 65%  
72 4% 44% Median
73 12% 40%  
74 9% 28%  
75 4% 19% Last Result
76 12% 15%  
77 1.4% 3%  
78 1.2% 2%  
79 0.4% 0.7%  
80 0.2% 0.3%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.6% 99.9%  
64 1.2% 99.3%  
65 3% 98%  
66 7% 95%  
67 7% 88%  
68 8% 82%  
69 8% 74% Median
70 9% 66%  
71 21% 58%  
72 4% 37%  
73 9% 32%  
74 10% 23%  
75 7% 12%  
76 2% 6%  
77 3% 4% Last Result
78 0.4% 0.8%  
79 0.2% 0.4%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.2% 100%  
56 0.6% 99.8%  
57 2% 99.3%  
58 5% 97%  
59 10% 93%  
60 9% 83%  
61 9% 74%  
62 18% 66%  
63 12% 48% Median
64 8% 35%  
65 8% 28% Last Result
66 10% 20%  
67 7% 10%  
68 1.4% 2%  
69 0.6% 1.0%  
70 0.4% 0.5%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0.2% 99.9%  
53 1.1% 99.7%  
54 6% 98.6%  
55 10% 93%  
56 10% 83%  
57 18% 73%  
58 10% 55% Median
59 7% 46%  
60 18% 38%  
61 6% 21%  
62 8% 15% Last Result
63 4% 7%  
64 2% 2%  
65 0.5% 0.8%  
66 0.3% 0.4%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0% 100%  
49 0.1% 99.9%  
50 0.1% 99.8%  
51 0.3% 99.7%  
52 0.4% 99.3%  
53 0.7% 98.9%  
54 4% 98%  
55 11% 94%  
56 23% 83%  
57 16% 60% Median
58 9% 44%  
59 10% 35%  
60 8% 25%  
61 9% 17%  
62 5% 8%  
63 2% 3%  
64 0.4% 1.4%  
65 0.6% 1.0%  
66 0.2% 0.4%  
67 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.2% 99.9%  
25 0.6% 99.7%  
26 3% 99.1%  
27 2% 96%  
28 7% 94%  
29 10% 87% Last Result
30 21% 77%  
31 8% 56%  
32 10% 48% Median
33 15% 38%  
34 12% 23%  
35 5% 11%  
36 3% 6%  
37 2% 3%  
38 0.5% 1.1%  
39 0.5% 0.6%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations