Opinion Poll by Norstat for NRK, 31 August–4 September 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 30.8% 25.8% 24.2–27.5% 23.8–28.0% 23.4–28.4% 22.7–29.2%
Høyre 26.8% 24.2% 22.7–25.9% 22.2–26.3% 21.8–26.7% 21.1–27.6%
Fremskrittspartiet 16.3% 17.0% 15.7–18.5% 15.3–18.9% 15.0–19.3% 14.3–20.0%
Senterpartiet 5.5% 9.6% 8.6–10.8% 8.3–11.1% 8.0–11.4% 7.6–12.0%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 4.1% 5.9% 5.2–6.9% 4.9–7.2% 4.7–7.5% 4.4–8.0%
Miljøpartiet de Grønne 2.8% 4.6% 3.9–5.5% 3.7–5.7% 3.5–5.9% 3.2–6.4%
Kristelig Folkeparti 5.6% 4.5% 3.8–5.4% 3.6–5.6% 3.5–5.9% 3.2–6.3%
Venstre 5.2% 3.5% 2.9–4.3% 2.7–4.5% 2.6–4.7% 2.3–5.1%
Rødt 1.1% 3.2% 2.7–4.0% 2.5–4.2% 2.4–4.4% 2.1–4.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 55 47 45–50 44–51 43–52 42–54
Høyre 48 43 40–47 38–47 38–49 37–50
Fremskrittspartiet 29 31 28–33 28–34 27–35 25–37
Senterpartiet 10 17 15–19 14–20 13–21 13–22
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 7 11 9–13 9–13 8–13 8–14
Miljøpartiet de Grønne 1 8 3–10 3–10 1–10 1–11
Kristelig Folkeparti 10 8 3–9 2–10 2–10 2–11
Venstre 9 2 1–7 1–8 1–8 1–9
Rødt 0 2 1–7 1–7 1–8 1–8

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 99.9%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 2% 99.8%  
43 1.0% 98%  
44 4% 97%  
45 31% 94%  
46 12% 62%  
47 11% 50% Median
48 15% 40%  
49 12% 25%  
50 6% 12%  
51 3% 6%  
52 1.2% 3%  
53 1.5% 2%  
54 0.3% 0.6%  
55 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
56 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.2% 99.9%  
37 1.3% 99.7%  
38 4% 98%  
39 3% 94%  
40 13% 91%  
41 9% 78%  
42 14% 70%  
43 7% 55% Median
44 19% 49%  
45 15% 30%  
46 4% 14%  
47 6% 11%  
48 1.0% 5% Last Result
49 3% 4%  
50 0.5% 0.8%  
51 0.3% 0.4%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.4% 99.8%  
26 0.8% 99.4%  
27 2% 98.6%  
28 18% 96%  
29 7% 78% Last Result
30 13% 71%  
31 20% 58% Median
32 17% 38%  
33 11% 21%  
34 6% 9%  
35 2% 4%  
36 1.1% 2%  
37 0.5% 1.0%  
38 0.4% 0.4%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0.2% 100%  
13 3% 99.8%  
14 5% 97%  
15 9% 93%  
16 24% 84%  
17 22% 60% Median
18 23% 38%  
19 7% 15%  
20 4% 8%  
21 3% 4%  
22 0.9% 1.0%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0.3% 99.9% Last Result
8 4% 99.6%  
9 16% 95%  
10 21% 79%  
11 30% 58% Median
12 16% 29%  
13 10% 12%  
14 2% 2%  
15 0.2% 0.2%  
16 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet de Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet de Grønne page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 3% 100% Last Result
2 1.0% 97%  
3 10% 96%  
4 0.4% 86%  
5 0% 85%  
6 0% 85%  
7 10% 85%  
8 35% 75% Median
9 27% 40%  
10 11% 14%  
11 2% 2%  
12 0.3% 0.3%  
13 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.2% 100%  
2 8% 99.8%  
3 8% 91%  
4 0.2% 83%  
5 0% 83%  
6 0.1% 83%  
7 21% 83%  
8 30% 62% Median
9 23% 32%  
10 8% 9% Last Result
11 1.0% 1.2%  
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100%  
1 25% 99.6%  
2 46% 75% Median
3 5% 29%  
4 0% 23%  
5 0% 23%  
6 0.3% 23%  
7 17% 23%  
8 6% 7%  
9 0.5% 0.6% Last Result
10 0% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 28% 100%  
2 55% 72% Median
3 0% 17%  
4 0% 17%  
5 0% 17%  
6 0.1% 17%  
7 13% 17%  
8 4% 4%  
9 0.3% 0.3%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 106 102 100% 96–105 96–106 95–107 91–110
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet de Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 97 92 98.5% 88–95 86–96 85–96 83–98
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 83 90 95% 85–93 85–95 83–96 81–98
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne – Rødt 73 85 55% 81–89 80–90 79–91 77–93
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 96 84 45% 80–88 79–89 78–90 76–92
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne 73 82 16% 79–85 78–87 77–88 74–91
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 72 77 1.5% 74–81 73–83 73–84 71–86
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 77 74 0.1% 70–78 68–80 67–81 66–83
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 72 75 0.1% 72–78 71–79 70–80 68–83
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 75 71 0% 67–75 66–76 65–78 64–79
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 65 64 0% 61–66 61–68 61–69 58–72
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 62 57 0% 55–61 55–62 53–63 53–65
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 67 54 0% 49–57 48–59 47–60 45–62
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 29 27 0% 23–32 21–33 20–34 19–36

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
90 0% 100%  
91 0.5% 99.9%  
92 0.1% 99.5%  
93 0.6% 99.4%  
94 0.4% 98.8%  
95 2% 98%  
96 9% 96%  
97 4% 87%  
98 3% 84%  
99 7% 80%  
100 11% 73%  
101 10% 62% Median
102 22% 52%  
103 14% 30%  
104 3% 16%  
105 5% 12%  
106 4% 8% Last Result
107 2% 4%  
108 1.0% 2%  
109 0.5% 1.2%  
110 0.7% 0.8%  
111 0% 0.1%  
112 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet de Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0.1% 100%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.3% 99.8%  
84 0.9% 99.5%  
85 2% 98.5% Majority
86 3% 97%  
87 3% 94%  
88 3% 92%  
89 9% 88%  
90 8% 79%  
91 11% 71%  
92 22% 60% Median
93 11% 38%  
94 9% 28%  
95 11% 19%  
96 5% 7%  
97 2% 2% Last Result
98 0.5% 0.7%  
99 0.1% 0.3%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0.1% 100%  
79 0.1% 99.9%  
80 0.1% 99.8%  
81 1.1% 99.7%  
82 0.8% 98.6%  
83 1.2% 98% Last Result
84 1.2% 97%  
85 9% 95% Majority
86 6% 86%  
87 5% 80%  
88 9% 75%  
89 12% 66%  
90 13% 54%  
91 12% 41% Median
92 12% 30%  
93 9% 18%  
94 4% 9%  
95 2% 5%  
96 1.0% 3%  
97 0.7% 2%  
98 0.8% 1.0%  
99 0.2% 0.2%  
100 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne – Rødt

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100% Last Result
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.2% 99.8%  
77 0.3% 99.6%  
78 0.5% 99.2%  
79 2% 98.8%  
80 3% 97%  
81 7% 94%  
82 4% 87%  
83 13% 83%  
84 16% 70%  
85 19% 55% Median, Majority
86 7% 35%  
87 10% 28%  
88 4% 18%  
89 9% 15%  
90 2% 6%  
91 2% 4%  
92 1.0% 2%  
93 0.8% 1.2%  
94 0.2% 0.4%  
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.2% 99.8%  
76 0.8% 99.6%  
77 1.0% 98.8%  
78 2% 98%  
79 2% 96%  
80 9% 94%  
81 4% 85%  
82 10% 82%  
83 7% 72%  
84 19% 65% Median
85 16% 45% Majority
86 13% 30%  
87 4% 17%  
88 7% 13%  
89 3% 6%  
90 2% 3%  
91 0.5% 1.2%  
92 0.3% 0.8%  
93 0.2% 0.4%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
74 0.3% 99.7%  
75 0.3% 99.5%  
76 0.7% 99.2%  
77 2% 98%  
78 5% 96%  
79 8% 91%  
80 5% 83%  
81 4% 78%  
82 30% 73%  
83 13% 43% Median
84 15% 30%  
85 6% 16% Majority
86 5% 10%  
87 2% 5%  
88 1.4% 3%  
89 0.6% 2%  
90 0.7% 1.3%  
91 0.2% 0.6%  
92 0.3% 0.4%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.5% 99.7%  
72 2% 99.3% Last Result
73 5% 98%  
74 11% 93%  
75 9% 81%  
76 11% 72%  
77 22% 62% Median
78 11% 40%  
79 8% 29%  
80 9% 21%  
81 3% 12%  
82 3% 8%  
83 3% 6%  
84 2% 3%  
85 0.9% 1.5% Majority
86 0.3% 0.5%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0.4% 99.9%  
66 1.2% 99.5%  
67 1.5% 98%  
68 3% 97%  
69 4% 94%  
70 5% 91%  
71 9% 86%  
72 11% 76%  
73 12% 65%  
74 13% 52% Median
75 7% 39%  
76 16% 32%  
77 6% 16% Last Result
78 4% 11%  
79 0.7% 7%  
80 1.3% 6%  
81 3% 5%  
82 0.7% 1.2%  
83 0.4% 0.6%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.3% 99.8%  
69 0.5% 99.5%  
70 2% 98.9%  
71 5% 97%  
72 10% 92% Last Result
73 17% 82%  
74 12% 65%  
75 18% 53% Median
76 18% 35%  
77 6% 17%  
78 4% 10%  
79 3% 6%  
80 1.2% 3%  
81 1.2% 2%  
82 0.4% 1.1%  
83 0.3% 0.7%  
84 0.2% 0.3%  
85 0.1% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.3% 99.9%  
64 0.3% 99.6%  
65 3% 99.3%  
66 2% 96%  
67 5% 93%  
68 13% 88%  
69 9% 76%  
70 7% 67%  
71 17% 60%  
72 8% 43% Median
73 10% 35%  
74 9% 26%  
75 10% 17% Last Result
76 2% 7%  
77 2% 5%  
78 2% 3%  
79 0.4% 0.7%  
80 0.2% 0.3%  
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0.3% 99.8%  
59 0.5% 99.5%  
60 0.8% 98.9%  
61 15% 98%  
62 12% 83%  
63 19% 71%  
64 15% 52% Median
65 13% 37% Last Result
66 14% 24%  
67 3% 10%  
68 4% 6%  
69 0.7% 3%  
70 1.0% 2%  
71 0.5% 1.1%  
72 0.2% 0.6%  
73 0.3% 0.4%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0.2% 99.8%  
53 2% 99.6%  
54 2% 97%  
55 6% 96%  
56 21% 89%  
57 20% 69%  
58 21% 48% Median
59 11% 27%  
60 6% 16%  
61 4% 10%  
62 2% 6% Last Result
63 2% 4%  
64 0.9% 2%  
65 0.4% 0.7%  
66 0.1% 0.3%  
67 0.2% 0.3%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 99.9%  
44 0.2% 99.9%  
45 0.3% 99.7%  
46 0.4% 99.4%  
47 3% 99.0%  
48 4% 96%  
49 10% 93%  
50 3% 82%  
51 7% 80%  
52 9% 73%  
53 8% 64% Median
54 27% 56%  
55 7% 29%  
56 8% 23%  
57 5% 14%  
58 2% 9%  
59 2% 7%  
60 3% 5%  
61 0.3% 2%  
62 1.2% 1.5%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.1% 99.9%  
19 0.8% 99.8%  
20 4% 99.1%  
21 2% 95%  
22 3% 94%  
23 3% 91%  
24 5% 88%  
25 12% 83%  
26 8% 71%  
27 18% 64% Median
28 10% 46%  
29 13% 36% Last Result
30 6% 22%  
31 6% 17%  
32 4% 11%  
33 2% 6%  
34 2% 4%  
35 0.7% 2%  
36 0.7% 1.1%  
37 0.3% 0.3%  
38 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations