Opinion Poll by Ipsos MMI for Dagbladet, 4–6 September 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 30.8% 27.2% 25.4–29.1% 24.9–29.6% 24.4–30.1% 23.6–31.0%
Høyre 26.8% 23.1% 21.5–25.0% 21.0–25.5% 20.6–25.9% 19.8–26.8%
Fremskrittspartiet 16.3% 15.2% 13.8–16.8% 13.4–17.2% 13.1–17.6% 12.5–18.4%
Senterpartiet 5.5% 9.4% 8.3–10.7% 7.9–11.0% 7.7–11.4% 7.2–12.0%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 4.1% 6.2% 5.3–7.3% 5.0–7.6% 4.8–7.9% 4.4–8.4%
Venstre 5.2% 4.7% 4.0–5.7% 3.7–6.0% 3.6–6.3% 3.2–6.8%
Miljøpartiet de Grønne 2.8% 4.4% 3.7–5.4% 3.5–5.7% 3.3–5.9% 3.0–6.4%
Kristelig Folkeparti 5.6% 4.2% 3.5–5.2% 3.3–5.4% 3.1–5.7% 2.8–6.2%
Rødt 1.1% 3.5% 2.9–4.4% 2.7–4.6% 2.5–4.9% 2.2–5.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 55 50 46–53 46–54 45–55 44–57
Høyre 48 41 37–45 36–46 36–47 34–49
Fremskrittspartiet 29 28 25–31 24–31 23–32 22–33
Senterpartiet 10 17 14–19 13–19 13–20 12–22
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 7 11 9–13 8–13 8–14 7–15
Venstre 9 9 3–10 2–10 2–10 1–12
Miljøpartiet de Grønne 1 7 3–9 1–10 1–10 1–11
Kristelig Folkeparti 10 8 2–9 2–9 2–10 1–11
Rødt 0 2 2–7 1–8 1–8 1–9

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.2% 99.8%  
44 0.9% 99.6%  
45 2% 98.7%  
46 8% 96%  
47 9% 88%  
48 6% 79%  
49 7% 73%  
50 23% 66% Median
51 10% 43%  
52 16% 33%  
53 9% 17%  
54 3% 8%  
55 3% 5% Last Result
56 1.3% 2%  
57 0.6% 0.7%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.3% 100%  
34 0.4% 99.7%  
35 1.0% 99.3%  
36 6% 98%  
37 6% 93%  
38 12% 87%  
39 10% 75%  
40 12% 65%  
41 22% 53% Median
42 4% 31%  
43 9% 27%  
44 7% 17%  
45 5% 11%  
46 2% 5%  
47 2% 4%  
48 0.5% 1.4% Last Result
49 0.8% 1.0%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.9% 99.8%  
23 4% 98.9%  
24 4% 95%  
25 3% 91%  
26 8% 88%  
27 5% 80%  
28 36% 75% Median
29 14% 39% Last Result
30 10% 24%  
31 10% 14%  
32 3% 4%  
33 0.6% 1.0%  
34 0.1% 0.4%  
35 0.1% 0.3%  
36 0.1% 0.2%  
37 0% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0.2% 100%  
12 2% 99.8%  
13 6% 98%  
14 9% 92%  
15 8% 83%  
16 17% 75%  
17 34% 57% Median
18 10% 23%  
19 9% 13%  
20 2% 3%  
21 0.8% 2%  
22 1.0% 1.1%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 1.2% 99.9% Last Result
8 4% 98.7%  
9 12% 95%  
10 17% 83%  
11 43% 66% Median
12 13% 23%  
13 7% 10%  
14 2% 3%  
15 0.5% 0.6%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.6% 100%  
2 7% 99.4%  
3 4% 92%  
4 0% 88%  
5 0% 88%  
6 0.7% 88%  
7 10% 87%  
8 22% 77%  
9 43% 55% Last Result, Median
10 10% 12%  
11 1.4% 2%  
12 0.4% 0.6%  
13 0.1% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet de Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet de Grønne page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 7% 100% Last Result
2 3% 93%  
3 30% 90%  
4 0.2% 60%  
5 0% 60%  
6 0.5% 60%  
7 13% 60% Median
8 29% 47%  
9 10% 18%  
10 6% 7%  
11 1.2% 1.3%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 1.4% 100%  
2 27% 98.6%  
3 3% 71%  
4 0.1% 68%  
5 0% 68%  
6 0.5% 68%  
7 15% 68%  
8 39% 52% Median
9 10% 13%  
10 3% 3% Last Result
11 0.7% 0.8%  
12 0% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 10% 100%  
2 72% 90% Median
3 0% 18%  
4 0% 18%  
5 0% 18%  
6 1.1% 18%  
7 11% 17%  
8 4% 6%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 106 100 100% 93–103 91–105 90–107 86–108
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 83 89 91% 85–94 83–95 82–96 80–99
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Miljøpartiet de Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 97 89 86% 84–94 83–95 81–96 79–98
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne – Rødt 73 86 63% 82–92 81–94 79–95 76–99
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne 73 83 38% 79–88 77–91 75–91 74–94
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 96 83 37% 77–87 75–88 74–90 70–93
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 72 80 14% 75–85 74–86 73–88 71–90
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 72 78 1.4% 72–82 72–83 70–84 69–85
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 75 73 0% 68–76 67–77 66–78 62–81
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 77 69 0% 64–73 64–74 62–76 60–77
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 65 67 0% 62–71 61–72 60–72 59–74
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 62 61 0% 56–65 56–66 55–67 54–69
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 67 55 0% 50–59 47–61 46–62 42–65
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 29 31 0% 25–34 23–35 21–36 20–38

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0.7% 100%  
87 0.2% 99.3%  
88 0.3% 99.1%  
89 0.1% 98.8%  
90 3% 98.6%  
91 2% 96%  
92 1.0% 94%  
93 4% 93%  
94 5% 90%  
95 5% 85%  
96 5% 80%  
97 4% 75%  
98 10% 71%  
99 6% 61%  
100 9% 55%  
101 12% 45%  
102 4% 34%  
103 22% 30% Median
104 2% 8%  
105 2% 6%  
106 1.0% 4% Last Result
107 1.0% 3%  
108 2% 2%  
109 0.2% 0.3%  
110 0% 0.1%  
111 0.1% 0.1%  
112 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0% 99.8%  
79 0.1% 99.8%  
80 0.5% 99.6%  
81 1.0% 99.2%  
82 3% 98%  
83 2% 95% Last Result
84 2% 93%  
85 7% 91% Majority
86 6% 84%  
87 4% 78%  
88 9% 74%  
89 21% 65%  
90 5% 44%  
91 9% 38%  
92 4% 30%  
93 12% 25% Median
94 6% 13%  
95 3% 8%  
96 2% 4%  
97 0.9% 2%  
98 0.9% 1.5%  
99 0.4% 0.6%  
100 0.1% 0.2%  
101 0.1% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Miljøpartiet de Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0% 100%  
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 0.3% 99.8%  
79 0.7% 99.6%  
80 0.4% 98.9%  
81 1.1% 98%  
82 1.5% 97%  
83 3% 96%  
84 7% 93%  
85 4% 86% Majority
86 3% 82%  
87 11% 79%  
88 5% 68%  
89 23% 62%  
90 13% 40%  
91 9% 26%  
92 3% 17%  
93 4% 15% Median
94 4% 10%  
95 4% 7%  
96 1.3% 3%  
97 0.7% 2% Last Result
98 0.7% 0.9%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne – Rødt

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100% Last Result
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0% 99.9%  
76 0.6% 99.9%  
77 0.1% 99.3%  
78 0.2% 99.2%  
79 2% 99.0%  
80 2% 97%  
81 3% 95%  
82 6% 92%  
83 17% 85%  
84 5% 68%  
85 12% 63% Majority
86 7% 51%  
87 9% 44% Median
88 11% 35%  
89 5% 24%  
90 5% 19%  
91 2% 14%  
92 2% 12%  
93 4% 10%  
94 2% 6%  
95 2% 4%  
96 0.5% 2%  
97 0.2% 1.2%  
98 0.1% 0.9%  
99 0.8% 0.9%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.2% 100%  
73 0.1% 99.7% Last Result
74 0.8% 99.7%  
75 2% 98.8%  
76 0.6% 97%  
77 2% 96%  
78 2% 94%  
79 5% 91%  
80 5% 87%  
81 19% 82%  
82 5% 63%  
83 13% 57%  
84 7% 44%  
85 6% 38% Median, Majority
86 15% 32%  
87 6% 17%  
88 4% 12%  
89 2% 8%  
90 0.8% 6%  
91 3% 5%  
92 1.1% 2%  
93 0.8% 1.3%  
94 0.4% 0.5%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0.8% 99.9%  
71 0.1% 99.1%  
72 0.2% 99.1%  
73 0.5% 98.8%  
74 2% 98%  
75 2% 96%  
76 4% 94%  
77 2% 90%  
78 2% 88%  
79 5% 86%  
80 5% 81%  
81 11% 76%  
82 9% 65%  
83 7% 56%  
84 12% 49%  
85 5% 37% Majority
86 17% 32% Median
87 6% 15%  
88 3% 8%  
89 2% 5%  
90 2% 3%  
91 0.2% 1.0%  
92 0.1% 0.8%  
93 0.6% 0.7%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.7% 99.8%  
72 0.7% 99.1% Last Result
73 1.3% 98%  
74 4% 97%  
75 4% 93%  
76 4% 90%  
77 3% 85%  
78 9% 83%  
79 13% 74%  
80 23% 60% Median
81 5% 38%  
82 11% 32%  
83 3% 21%  
84 4% 18%  
85 7% 14% Majority
86 3% 7%  
87 1.5% 4%  
88 1.1% 3%  
89 0.4% 2%  
90 0.7% 1.1%  
91 0.3% 0.4%  
92 0.1% 0.2%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.2% 100%  
68 0.2% 99.7%  
69 0.9% 99.6%  
70 1.3% 98.7%  
71 2% 97%  
72 6% 95% Last Result
73 4% 89%  
74 6% 85%  
75 2% 79%  
76 10% 76%  
77 9% 67%  
78 27% 57% Median
79 6% 30%  
80 11% 24%  
81 3% 13%  
82 2% 10%  
83 4% 8%  
84 2% 3%  
85 0.9% 1.4% Majority
86 0.2% 0.5%  
87 0.2% 0.3%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.6% 99.9%  
63 0.4% 99.3%  
64 0.2% 98.9%  
65 0.8% 98.7%  
66 2% 98%  
67 2% 96%  
68 6% 94%  
69 5% 88%  
70 6% 83%  
71 13% 77%  
72 5% 64%  
73 11% 59%  
74 11% 48%  
75 24% 37% Last Result, Median
76 6% 13%  
77 3% 7%  
78 3% 5%  
79 1.1% 2%  
80 0.3% 1.0%  
81 0.5% 0.7%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0.5% 99.9%  
61 1.2% 99.4%  
62 2% 98%  
63 1.0% 97%  
64 9% 96%  
65 5% 87%  
66 6% 82%  
67 13% 76%  
68 5% 63%  
69 22% 58% Median
70 7% 36%  
71 7% 30%  
72 4% 23%  
73 13% 19%  
74 2% 6%  
75 1.0% 4%  
76 1.2% 3%  
77 2% 2% Last Result
78 0.1% 0.3%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.3% 99.9%  
59 0.6% 99.6%  
60 2% 98.9%  
61 3% 97%  
62 8% 95%  
63 3% 87%  
64 6% 84%  
65 7% 78% Last Result
66 10% 72%  
67 32% 61% Median
68 5% 29%  
69 10% 24%  
70 3% 14%  
71 5% 10%  
72 3% 5%  
73 1.3% 2%  
74 0.3% 0.6%  
75 0.2% 0.3%  
76 0.1% 0.2%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.2% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.8%  
54 0.9% 99.7%  
55 3% 98.8%  
56 6% 96%  
57 3% 89%  
58 10% 87%  
59 9% 77%  
60 6% 68%  
61 23% 62% Median
62 9% 39% Last Result
63 12% 30%  
64 8% 19%  
65 4% 11%  
66 4% 7%  
67 1.4% 3%  
68 1.0% 2%  
69 0.5% 0.7%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.7% 100%  
43 0.3% 99.3%  
44 0.1% 99.0%  
45 0.3% 98.9%  
46 2% 98.7%  
47 3% 96%  
48 2% 94%  
49 0.9% 92%  
50 5% 91%  
51 8% 86%  
52 3% 78%  
53 7% 75%  
54 14% 68%  
55 11% 54%  
56 8% 43%  
57 5% 36%  
58 17% 30% Median
59 7% 13%  
60 1.2% 7%  
61 2% 5%  
62 1.2% 3%  
63 0.5% 2%  
64 0.5% 1.2%  
65 0.6% 0.7%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.1% 99.9%  
20 0.5% 99.7%  
21 2% 99.3%  
22 0.5% 97%  
23 3% 96%  
24 3% 94%  
25 2% 91%  
26 3% 89%  
27 7% 86%  
28 10% 79%  
29 7% 69% Last Result
30 8% 62%  
31 9% 54%  
32 5% 45%  
33 8% 40%  
34 23% 32% Median
35 5% 10%  
36 2% 4%  
37 1.3% 2%  
38 0.4% 0.7%  
39 0.1% 0.3%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations