Opinion Poll by Norfakta for Nationen and Klassekampen, 5–6 September 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 30.8% 26.3% 24.4–28.4% 23.8–29.0% 23.4–29.5% 22.5–30.5%
Høyre 26.8% 25.8% 23.9–27.9% 23.4–28.5% 22.9–29.0% 22.0–30.0%
Fremskrittspartiet 16.3% 13.8% 12.4–15.5% 12.0–16.0% 11.6–16.4% 11.0–17.2%
Senterpartiet 5.5% 10.5% 9.2–12.0% 8.8–12.4% 8.5–12.8% 8.0–13.5%
Kristelig Folkeparti 5.6% 5.2% 4.3–6.4% 4.1–6.7% 3.9–7.0% 3.5–7.6%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 4.1% 5.0% 4.1–6.1% 3.9–6.4% 3.7–6.7% 3.3–7.3%
Miljøpartiet de Grønne 2.8% 4.5% 3.7–5.6% 3.4–5.9% 3.3–6.2% 2.9–6.7%
Venstre 5.2% 4.2% 3.4–5.3% 3.2–5.6% 3.0–5.9% 2.7–6.4%
Rødt 1.1% 3.1% 2.5–4.1% 2.3–4.3% 2.1–4.6% 1.8–5.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 55 48 44–52 44–53 44–54 40–56
Høyre 48 45 41–49 40–51 39–52 37–54
Fremskrittspartiet 29 25 21–28 20–29 20–29 18–31
Senterpartiet 10 18 15–22 15–22 14–23 13–24
Kristelig Folkeparti 10 9 7–11 7–11 3–12 2–13
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 7 9 7–10 2–11 2–11 1–12
Miljøpartiet de Grønne 1 8 1–9 1–10 1–11 1–12
Venstre 9 7 2–9 1–9 1–10 1–11
Rødt 0 2 1–2 1–7 1–7 1–8

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0% 99.9%  
40 0.6% 99.9%  
41 0.1% 99.2%  
42 0.6% 99.1%  
43 0.7% 98.5%  
44 9% 98%  
45 4% 89%  
46 12% 85%  
47 12% 73%  
48 21% 62% Median
49 8% 41%  
50 14% 33%  
51 7% 19%  
52 6% 12%  
53 2% 6%  
54 2% 4%  
55 1.3% 2% Last Result
56 0.4% 0.7%  
57 0.2% 0.3%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0% 100%  
37 0.7% 99.9%  
38 0.8% 99.2%  
39 2% 98%  
40 3% 96%  
41 12% 93%  
42 3% 81%  
43 11% 79%  
44 9% 68%  
45 12% 59% Median
46 4% 47%  
47 24% 44%  
48 6% 20% Last Result
49 5% 14%  
50 4% 9%  
51 2% 5%  
52 1.1% 3%  
53 0.8% 2%  
54 0.4% 0.8%  
55 0.2% 0.3%  
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.2% 100%  
18 0.5% 99.8%  
19 0.6% 99.3%  
20 4% 98.7%  
21 9% 94%  
22 16% 85%  
23 7% 69%  
24 12% 62%  
25 6% 50% Median
26 12% 44%  
27 14% 32%  
28 12% 18%  
29 4% 6% Last Result
30 0.7% 2%  
31 0.9% 1.2%  
32 0.2% 0.2%  
33 0% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0.2% 100%  
13 1.0% 99.7%  
14 3% 98.8%  
15 6% 95%  
16 7% 90%  
17 7% 83%  
18 28% 76% Median
19 14% 48%  
20 10% 34%  
21 3% 24%  
22 18% 21%  
23 2% 3%  
24 0.7% 1.0%  
25 0.3% 0.3%  
26 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 2% 99.9%  
3 1.1% 98%  
4 0% 97%  
5 0% 97%  
6 0.2% 97%  
7 8% 97%  
8 19% 89%  
9 37% 70% Median
10 13% 33% Last Result
11 16% 20%  
12 2% 4%  
13 1.3% 2%  
14 0.3% 0.4%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 1.5% 100%  
2 6% 98.5%  
3 0% 93%  
4 0% 93%  
5 0% 93%  
6 0.5% 93%  
7 7% 92% Last Result
8 31% 85%  
9 32% 54% Median
10 14% 22%  
11 6% 8%  
12 2% 2%  
13 0.3% 0.4%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet de Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet de Grønne page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 10% 100% Last Result
2 4% 90%  
3 10% 86%  
4 1.4% 76%  
5 0% 74%  
6 0.2% 74%  
7 14% 74%  
8 26% 60% Median
9 26% 33%  
10 5% 7%  
11 2% 3%  
12 0.6% 0.6%  
13 0% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 7% 99.9%  
2 20% 93%  
3 9% 73%  
4 0% 64%  
5 0% 64%  
6 1.5% 64%  
7 20% 63% Median
8 30% 43%  
9 10% 13% Last Result
10 3% 3%  
11 0.7% 0.8%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 16% 100%  
2 76% 84% Median
3 0% 8%  
4 0% 8%  
5 0% 8%  
6 2% 8%  
7 3% 6%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0.3% 0.3%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 106 103 100% 99–109 97–110 96–112 93–115
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne – Venstre 97 91 97% 88–96 86–98 83–100 81–101
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne 83 91 94% 85–96 84–97 83–98 80–100
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 96 84 50% 81–90 79–92 77–94 74–94
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne – Rødt 73 85 50% 79–88 77–90 75–92 75–95
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne 73 82 28% 77–86 75–87 73–89 71–92
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 72 78 3% 73–81 71–83 69–86 68–88
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 75 76 1.5% 70–80 69–81 68–83 66–87
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 72 75 0.2% 70–79 69–80 68–82 66–84
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 77 69 0% 64–75 64–76 63–78 61–81
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 65 67 0% 63–70 61–71 60–73 57–77
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 67 60 0% 55–65 54–67 53–68 50–70
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 62 56 0% 53–61 51–62 50–63 47–65
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 29 34 0% 28–39 27–39 26–40 24–43

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 99.9%  
90 0% 99.9%  
91 0.1% 99.9%  
92 0.2% 99.9%  
93 0.2% 99.6%  
94 0.3% 99.5%  
95 1.2% 99.2%  
96 2% 98%  
97 2% 96%  
98 2% 94%  
99 6% 92%  
100 8% 86%  
101 6% 79%  
102 11% 72%  
103 18% 62%  
104 4% 44% Median
105 18% 40%  
106 4% 22% Last Result
107 3% 19%  
108 4% 16%  
109 7% 12%  
110 1.2% 5%  
111 1.2% 4%  
112 2% 3%  
113 0.3% 1.1%  
114 0.3% 0.8%  
115 0.1% 0.5%  
116 0.1% 0.4%  
117 0.3% 0.4%  
118 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne – Venstre

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0.1% 100%  
81 1.1% 99.9%  
82 0.7% 98.8%  
83 0.6% 98%  
84 0.6% 97%  
85 2% 97% Majority
86 0.9% 95%  
87 2% 94%  
88 11% 93%  
89 21% 81%  
90 6% 60%  
91 6% 55%  
92 6% 48%  
93 13% 42%  
94 11% 30% Median
95 5% 19%  
96 6% 14%  
97 3% 8% Last Result
98 1.4% 6%  
99 2% 4%  
100 1.2% 3%  
101 1.1% 1.5%  
102 0.2% 0.4%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0.1% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.2% 99.8%  
80 0.3% 99.6%  
81 1.2% 99.3%  
82 0.6% 98%  
83 0.6% 98% Last Result
84 3% 97%  
85 5% 94% Majority
86 4% 90%  
87 3% 86%  
88 5% 83%  
89 4% 77%  
90 10% 73%  
91 23% 64%  
92 8% 41% Median
93 3% 33%  
94 5% 30%  
95 14% 25%  
96 3% 11%  
97 5% 8%  
98 0.9% 3%  
99 1.0% 2%  
100 0.2% 0.6%  
101 0.3% 0.4%  
102 0.1% 0.1%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.3% 100%  
74 0.2% 99.7%  
75 0.5% 99.5%  
76 0.2% 99.0%  
77 1.4% 98.8%  
78 1.2% 97%  
79 3% 96%  
80 2% 94%  
81 18% 92%  
82 5% 74%  
83 5% 69%  
84 14% 64%  
85 12% 50% Majority
86 10% 38% Median
87 8% 28%  
88 3% 20%  
89 6% 17%  
90 2% 11%  
91 3% 8%  
92 1.0% 5%  
93 2% 4%  
94 2% 3%  
95 0.1% 0.4%  
96 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
97 0.1% 0.2%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne – Rødt

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.1% 99.8% Last Result
74 0.1% 99.7%  
75 2% 99.6%  
76 2% 97%  
77 1.0% 96%  
78 3% 95%  
79 2% 92%  
80 6% 89%  
81 3% 83%  
82 8% 80%  
83 10% 72%  
84 12% 62%  
85 14% 50% Median, Majority
86 5% 36%  
87 5% 31%  
88 18% 26%  
89 2% 8%  
90 3% 6%  
91 1.2% 4%  
92 1.4% 3%  
93 0.2% 1.2%  
94 0.5% 1.0%  
95 0.2% 0.5%  
96 0.3% 0.3%  
97 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.3% 99.8%  
71 0.5% 99.5%  
72 0.2% 99.1%  
73 2% 98.9% Last Result
74 1.1% 97%  
75 2% 96%  
76 2% 94%  
77 3% 92%  
78 7% 89%  
79 4% 82%  
80 8% 78%  
81 10% 70%  
82 11% 60%  
83 10% 49% Median
84 11% 39%  
85 5% 28% Majority
86 17% 23%  
87 2% 6%  
88 2% 4%  
89 1.3% 3%  
90 0.4% 1.3%  
91 0.3% 0.9%  
92 0.3% 0.6%  
93 0.2% 0.3%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0% 99.9%  
67 0.2% 99.9%  
68 1.1% 99.6%  
69 1.2% 98.5%  
70 2% 97%  
71 1.4% 96%  
72 3% 94% Last Result
73 6% 92%  
74 5% 86%  
75 11% 81%  
76 13% 70%  
77 6% 58% Median
78 6% 52%  
79 6% 45%  
80 21% 40%  
81 11% 19%  
82 2% 7%  
83 0.9% 6%  
84 2% 5%  
85 0.6% 3% Majority
86 0.6% 3%  
87 0.7% 2%  
88 1.1% 1.2%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.5% 99.7%  
67 1.2% 99.2%  
68 2% 98%  
69 2% 96%  
70 5% 95%  
71 3% 90%  
72 4% 87%  
73 10% 83%  
74 9% 73%  
75 9% 64% Last Result, Median
76 7% 55%  
77 6% 48%  
78 11% 41%  
79 12% 31%  
80 9% 19%  
81 6% 9%  
82 0.7% 4%  
83 1.4% 3%  
84 0.3% 2%  
85 0.4% 1.5% Majority
86 0.2% 1.1%  
87 0.8% 0.9%  
88 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.3% 99.8%  
66 1.0% 99.5%  
67 1.0% 98.6%  
68 2% 98%  
69 3% 95%  
70 3% 93%  
71 6% 90%  
72 5% 84% Last Result
73 10% 79%  
74 10% 69%  
75 9% 59% Median
76 4% 50%  
77 8% 46%  
78 20% 38%  
79 11% 18%  
80 3% 6%  
81 0.8% 3%  
82 0.9% 3%  
83 0.9% 2%  
84 0.7% 0.9%  
85 0.1% 0.2% Majority
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.1% 99.8%  
61 0.2% 99.7%  
62 0.3% 99.4%  
63 4% 99.1%  
64 8% 95%  
65 4% 87%  
66 6% 82%  
67 4% 76%  
68 8% 72%  
69 15% 64%  
70 10% 49% Median
71 4% 39%  
72 5% 35%  
73 7% 30%  
74 11% 23%  
75 4% 12%  
76 4% 8%  
77 1.0% 4% Last Result
78 0.8% 3%  
79 1.1% 2%  
80 0.3% 1.1%  
81 0.5% 0.8%  
82 0.1% 0.3%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.5% 99.9%  
58 0.4% 99.4%  
59 0.9% 99.0%  
60 2% 98%  
61 2% 96%  
62 2% 94%  
63 8% 92%  
64 10% 84%  
65 5% 74% Last Result
66 11% 69% Median
67 10% 59%  
68 10% 49%  
69 17% 39%  
70 14% 22%  
71 3% 8%  
72 2% 5%  
73 0.4% 3%  
74 0.6% 2%  
75 0.5% 2%  
76 0.2% 1.1%  
77 0.9% 0.9%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.2% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.8%  
49 0.1% 99.7%  
50 0.7% 99.6%  
51 0.2% 99.0%  
52 0.9% 98.7%  
53 1.0% 98%  
54 4% 97%  
55 5% 93%  
56 2% 88%  
57 13% 86%  
58 5% 73%  
59 11% 68%  
60 12% 56%  
61 15% 44% Median
62 4% 29%  
63 6% 25%  
64 9% 19%  
65 2% 10%  
66 2% 9%  
67 3% 7% Last Result
68 3% 4%  
69 0.8% 2%  
70 0.4% 0.8%  
71 0.2% 0.4%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0% 100%  
46 0.2% 99.9%  
47 0.4% 99.7%  
48 0.9% 99.3%  
49 0.4% 98%  
50 1.3% 98%  
51 2% 97%  
52 2% 95%  
53 10% 93%  
54 9% 83%  
55 7% 74%  
56 20% 67%  
57 13% 47% Median
58 3% 34%  
59 12% 30%  
60 8% 18%  
61 5% 11%  
62 2% 5% Last Result
63 2% 3%  
64 1.1% 2%  
65 0.2% 0.5%  
66 0.1% 0.3%  
67 0.2% 0.2%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.2% 99.9%  
23 0.1% 99.7%  
24 0.3% 99.7%  
25 1.2% 99.3%  
26 0.7% 98%  
27 3% 97%  
28 11% 95%  
29 5% 84% Last Result
30 3% 79%  
31 6% 76%  
32 6% 70%  
33 5% 64%  
34 10% 59% Median
35 8% 48%  
36 21% 41%  
37 6% 19%  
38 2% 14%  
39 9% 12%  
40 2% 3%  
41 0.3% 1.1%  
42 0.2% 0.9%  
43 0.5% 0.6%  
44 0.2% 0.2%  
45 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations