Opinion Poll by Respons Analyse for Aftenposten, Bergens Tidende and Adresseavisen, 4–6 September 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 30.8% 25.6% 23.9–27.4% 23.4–28.0% 23.0–28.4% 22.2–29.3%
Høyre 26.8% 24.7% 23.0–26.5% 22.5–27.0% 22.1–27.5% 21.3–28.4%
Fremskrittspartiet 16.3% 14.3% 13.0–15.8% 12.6–16.2% 12.3–16.6% 11.6–17.4%
Senterpartiet 5.5% 9.9% 8.8–11.2% 8.5–11.6% 8.2–11.9% 7.7–12.6%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 4.1% 7.3% 6.3–8.5% 6.1–8.8% 5.8–9.1% 5.4–9.7%
Kristelig Folkeparti 5.6% 5.5% 4.7–6.5% 4.4–6.8% 4.3–7.1% 3.9–7.6%
Venstre 5.2% 4.5% 3.8–5.5% 3.6–5.7% 3.4–6.0% 3.0–6.5%
Rødt 1.1% 3.1% 2.5–3.9% 2.3–4.2% 2.2–4.4% 1.9–4.8%
Miljøpartiet de Grønne 2.8% 2.7% 2.1–3.5% 2.0–3.7% 1.9–3.9% 1.6–4.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 55 48 44–51 43–52 42–53 41–54
Høyre 48 44 41–48 40–49 39–50 37–52
Fremskrittspartiet 29 26 24–29 23–30 22–31 20–32
Senterpartiet 10 18 15–20 15–21 14–22 13–23
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 7 13 11–15 11–16 10–16 9–17
Kristelig Folkeparti 10 10 8–12 8–12 7–13 3–14
Venstre 9 8 3–10 2–10 2–10 1–11
Rødt 0 2 1–2 1–7 1–7 1–8
Miljøpartiet de Grønne 1 1 1 1–3 1–3 0–7

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.2% 99.9%  
41 1.0% 99.6%  
42 2% 98.6%  
43 5% 97%  
44 7% 92%  
45 10% 85%  
46 8% 74%  
47 14% 66%  
48 12% 52% Median
49 14% 40%  
50 10% 26%  
51 9% 17%  
52 5% 8%  
53 2% 3%  
54 0.7% 0.9%  
55 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
56 0% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.1% 99.9%  
37 0.7% 99.8%  
38 1.3% 99.1%  
39 2% 98%  
40 3% 96%  
41 10% 93%  
42 8% 83%  
43 15% 75%  
44 15% 60% Median
45 15% 44%  
46 12% 30%  
47 8% 18%  
48 5% 10% Last Result
49 3% 5%  
50 0.8% 3%  
51 1.1% 2%  
52 0.6% 0.9%  
53 0.2% 0.3%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.6% 99.9%  
21 1.3% 99.4%  
22 2% 98%  
23 6% 96%  
24 11% 90%  
25 13% 80%  
26 24% 67% Median
27 21% 42%  
28 10% 21%  
29 5% 11% Last Result
30 3% 6%  
31 2% 3%  
32 0.6% 0.7%  
33 0.2% 0.2%  
34 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0.1% 100%  
13 1.0% 99.8%  
14 3% 98.9%  
15 7% 96%  
16 14% 89%  
17 22% 75%  
18 21% 52% Median
19 14% 32%  
20 10% 17%  
21 4% 7%  
22 3% 3%  
23 0.4% 0.6%  
24 0.2% 0.2%  
25 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0% 100%  
9 0.5% 100%  
10 3% 99.5%  
11 9% 96%  
12 20% 87%  
13 32% 67% Median
14 20% 35%  
15 9% 15%  
16 4% 6%  
17 1.3% 2%  
18 0.3% 0.4%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.4% 100%  
3 0.8% 99.6%  
4 0% 98.9%  
5 0% 98.9%  
6 0% 98.9%  
7 1.4% 98.9%  
8 9% 97%  
9 25% 88%  
10 32% 63% Last Result, Median
11 20% 31%  
12 8% 11%  
13 2% 3%  
14 0.5% 0.6%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.8% 100%  
2 9% 99.2%  
3 14% 91%  
4 0% 77%  
5 0% 77%  
6 0% 77%  
7 12% 77%  
8 36% 65% Median
9 16% 28% Last Result
10 10% 12%  
11 2% 2%  
12 0.4% 0.4%  
13 0% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 17% 100%  
2 77% 83% Median
3 0% 6%  
4 0% 6%  
5 0% 6%  
6 0.1% 6%  
7 5% 6%  
8 1.3% 2%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet de Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet de Grønne page.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 90% 98% Last Result, Median
2 3% 8%  
3 3% 5%  
4 0.5% 2%  
5 0% 2%  
6 0% 2%  
7 1.4% 2%  
8 0.3% 0.3%  
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 106 105 100% 101–109 100–110 99–111 96–113
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne 83 89 92% 85–93 84–95 83–96 81–98
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet de Grønne 97 88 91% 85–93 83–93 82–94 80–96
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 96 87 78% 83–91 82–92 81–93 79–95
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet de Grønne 73 82 22% 78–86 77–87 76–88 74–90
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 72 80 9% 76–84 75–85 75–87 72–89
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne 73 80 5% 75–83 74–85 73–86 71–88
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 72 78 2% 74–82 73–83 72–84 70–86
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 75 75 0.1% 71–79 70–80 69–81 67–83
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 77 70 0% 66–75 65–76 64–77 63–79
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 65 65 0% 61–69 61–70 60–71 58–72
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 62 61 0% 57–64 56–66 55–67 53–68
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 67 61 0% 57–65 56–66 55–67 53–69
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 29 35 0% 31–38 29–40 29–40 27–42

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0.1% 100%  
95 0.2% 99.9%  
96 0.4% 99.6%  
97 0.5% 99.2%  
98 1.1% 98.7%  
99 3% 98%  
100 4% 95%  
101 4% 91%  
102 6% 87%  
103 14% 81%  
104 13% 67%  
105 10% 54%  
106 13% 44% Last Result, Median
107 11% 31%  
108 7% 21%  
109 5% 14%  
110 4% 8%  
111 3% 5%  
112 1.3% 2%  
113 0.4% 0.5%  
114 0.1% 0.1%  
115 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0.1% 100%  
79 0.1% 99.9%  
80 0.1% 99.8%  
81 0.7% 99.6%  
82 1.0% 98.9%  
83 2% 98% Last Result
84 4% 96%  
85 5% 92% Majority
86 5% 87%  
87 8% 83%  
88 11% 74%  
89 14% 64%  
90 12% 49% Median
91 11% 38%  
92 7% 27%  
93 12% 20%  
94 3% 8%  
95 3% 5%  
96 1.3% 3%  
97 0.7% 1.5%  
98 0.4% 0.7%  
99 0.2% 0.3%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet de Grønne

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0.1% 100%  
79 0.2% 99.9%  
80 0.3% 99.7%  
81 0.9% 99.4%  
82 2% 98%  
83 2% 97%  
84 4% 95%  
85 10% 91% Majority
86 10% 80%  
87 9% 70%  
88 11% 60%  
89 8% 50% Median
90 16% 42%  
91 8% 25%  
92 8% 18%  
93 5% 10%  
94 3% 5%  
95 1.1% 2%  
96 0.5% 1.0%  
97 0.3% 0.5% Last Result
98 0.1% 0.2%  
99 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.1% 100%  
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 0.2% 99.8%  
79 0.4% 99.6%  
80 1.1% 99.2%  
81 2% 98%  
82 2% 96%  
83 5% 94%  
84 11% 89%  
85 10% 78% Majority
86 10% 68%  
87 11% 58%  
88 9% 47% Median
89 15% 39%  
90 7% 24%  
91 7% 17%  
92 5% 10%  
93 3% 5%  
94 0.9% 2%  
95 0.5% 0.9%  
96 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet de Grønne

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.3% 99.9% Last Result
74 0.5% 99.6%  
75 0.9% 99.1%  
76 3% 98%  
77 5% 95%  
78 7% 90%  
79 7% 83%  
80 15% 76%  
81 9% 61%  
82 11% 52% Median
83 10% 42%  
84 10% 32%  
85 11% 22% Majority
86 5% 10%  
87 2% 6%  
88 2% 3%  
89 1.0% 2%  
90 0.4% 0.8%  
91 0.2% 0.4%  
92 0.1% 0.2%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.4% 99.8% Last Result
73 0.5% 99.5%  
74 1.1% 98.9%  
75 3% 98%  
76 5% 95%  
77 8% 90%  
78 8% 82%  
79 16% 74%  
80 8% 58%  
81 11% 50% Median
82 9% 39%  
83 10% 30%  
84 10% 20%  
85 4% 9% Majority
86 2% 5%  
87 2% 3%  
88 0.9% 1.5%  
89 0.3% 0.6%  
90 0.2% 0.3%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.2% 99.9%  
71 0.3% 99.7%  
72 0.7% 99.4%  
73 1.3% 98.7% Last Result
74 3% 97%  
75 5% 95%  
76 7% 89%  
77 7% 82%  
78 16% 75%  
79 8% 59%  
80 11% 51% Median
81 10% 40%  
82 9% 30%  
83 11% 21%  
84 4% 10%  
85 3% 5% Majority
86 1.4% 3%  
87 0.7% 1.2%  
88 0.3% 0.5%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.2% 99.9%  
70 0.4% 99.7%  
71 0.8% 99.3%  
72 1.4% 98.5% Last Result
73 3% 97%  
74 6% 94%  
75 8% 88%  
76 7% 81%  
77 17% 74%  
78 8% 56%  
79 11% 48% Median
80 9% 37%  
81 10% 29%  
82 11% 19%  
83 4% 8%  
84 2% 5%  
85 1.3% 2% Majority
86 0.5% 0.8%  
87 0.2% 0.3%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.2% 99.8%  
67 0.4% 99.6%  
68 1.1% 99.2%  
69 2% 98%  
70 4% 96%  
71 4% 93%  
72 9% 88%  
73 6% 79%  
74 17% 73%  
75 11% 57% Last Result
76 11% 46% Median
77 9% 35%  
78 10% 27%  
79 10% 16%  
80 3% 6%  
81 1.4% 3%  
82 0.8% 1.4%  
83 0.3% 0.6%  
84 0.2% 0.4%  
85 0.1% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.2% 99.8%  
63 0.8% 99.6%  
64 2% 98.8%  
65 3% 97%  
66 5% 94%  
67 8% 90%  
68 9% 82%  
69 9% 73%  
70 16% 64% Median
71 18% 48%  
72 10% 30%  
73 6% 19%  
74 3% 13%  
75 5% 11%  
76 3% 6%  
77 0.8% 3% Last Result
78 0.8% 2%  
79 0.7% 0.9%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.2% 99.9%  
58 0.7% 99.7%  
59 1.2% 98.9%  
60 2% 98%  
61 8% 96%  
62 7% 88%  
63 10% 81%  
64 14% 71%  
65 10% 57% Last Result
66 10% 47% Median
67 11% 37%  
68 6% 26%  
69 15% 20%  
70 3% 5%  
71 2% 3%  
72 0.4% 0.8%  
73 0.2% 0.4%  
74 0.2% 0.2%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.4% 99.8%  
54 1.4% 99.4%  
55 3% 98%  
56 4% 95%  
57 6% 91%  
58 7% 85%  
59 12% 78%  
60 15% 65%  
61 9% 51% Median
62 13% 41% Last Result
63 13% 28%  
64 5% 15%  
65 5% 10%  
66 2% 5%  
67 2% 3%  
68 0.6% 0.8%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0.3% 99.8%  
53 0.4% 99.5%  
54 1.1% 99.1%  
55 2% 98%  
56 3% 96%  
57 5% 93%  
58 8% 88%  
59 15% 80%  
60 8% 65%  
61 8% 56%  
62 8% 49% Median
63 19% 40%  
64 9% 21%  
65 6% 13%  
66 4% 7%  
67 2% 3% Last Result
68 0.5% 1.3%  
69 0.4% 0.8%  
70 0.3% 0.5%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.1% 99.9%  
25 0.1% 99.8%  
26 0.3% 99.8%  
27 0.6% 99.5%  
28 0.9% 98.9%  
29 4% 98% Last Result
30 4% 94%  
31 5% 91%  
32 7% 86%  
33 16% 79%  
34 8% 64%  
35 19% 56%  
36 10% 37% Median
37 9% 28%  
38 10% 18%  
39 4% 9%  
40 3% 5%  
41 1.1% 2%  
42 0.4% 0.8%  
43 0.3% 0.4%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations