Opinion Poll by Kantar TNS for TV2, 4–9 September 2017
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Arbeiderpartiet |
30.8% |
28.1% |
26.9–29.3% |
26.6–29.6% |
26.3–29.9% |
25.8–30.5% |
Høyre |
26.8% |
23.8% |
22.7–24.9% |
22.4–25.3% |
22.2–25.5% |
21.6–26.1% |
Fremskrittspartiet |
16.3% |
14.6% |
13.7–15.5% |
13.5–15.8% |
13.2–16.0% |
12.8–16.5% |
Senterpartiet |
5.5% |
10.2% |
9.4–11.0% |
9.2–11.2% |
9.1–11.5% |
8.7–11.9% |
Sosialistisk Venstreparti |
4.1% |
5.6% |
5.0–6.2% |
4.9–6.4% |
4.7–6.6% |
4.5–6.9% |
Venstre |
5.2% |
4.6% |
4.1–5.2% |
4.0–5.4% |
3.8–5.5% |
3.6–5.8% |
Kristelig Folkeparti |
5.6% |
4.4% |
3.9–5.0% |
3.8–5.2% |
3.7–5.3% |
3.4–5.6% |
Miljøpartiet de Grønne |
2.8% |
3.9% |
3.4–4.5% |
3.3–4.6% |
3.2–4.8% |
3.0–5.0% |
Rødt |
1.1% |
3.1% |
2.7–3.6% |
2.6–3.7% |
2.5–3.9% |
2.3–4.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Arbeiderpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
46 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
47 |
3% |
99.7% |
|
48 |
7% |
97% |
|
49 |
4% |
90% |
|
50 |
21% |
85% |
|
51 |
29% |
64% |
Median |
52 |
14% |
35% |
|
53 |
10% |
21% |
|
54 |
8% |
10% |
|
55 |
1.3% |
2% |
Last Result |
56 |
0.3% |
0.7% |
|
57 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
Høyre
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
37 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
38 |
3% |
99.5% |
|
39 |
13% |
97% |
|
40 |
4% |
83% |
|
41 |
12% |
79% |
|
42 |
26% |
67% |
Median |
43 |
13% |
41% |
|
44 |
10% |
28% |
|
45 |
14% |
18% |
|
46 |
3% |
4% |
|
47 |
1.3% |
2% |
|
48 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
Last Result |
49 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
Fremskrittspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
23 |
2% |
99.6% |
|
24 |
5% |
98% |
|
25 |
15% |
93% |
|
26 |
5% |
77% |
|
27 |
10% |
73% |
|
28 |
57% |
63% |
Median |
29 |
4% |
6% |
Last Result |
30 |
1.3% |
1.4% |
|
31 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
|
Senterpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
10 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
15 |
3% |
99.9% |
|
16 |
8% |
97% |
|
17 |
8% |
89% |
|
18 |
50% |
81% |
Median |
19 |
12% |
30% |
|
20 |
16% |
18% |
|
21 |
2% |
2% |
|
22 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sosialistisk Venstreparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0.1% |
100% |
Last Result |
8 |
5% |
99.9% |
|
9 |
26% |
94% |
|
10 |
42% |
68% |
Median |
11 |
23% |
26% |
|
12 |
3% |
3% |
|
13 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
Venstre
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
4% |
100% |
|
3 |
2% |
96% |
|
4 |
0% |
94% |
|
5 |
0% |
94% |
|
6 |
0% |
94% |
|
7 |
7% |
94% |
|
8 |
53% |
88% |
Median |
9 |
32% |
34% |
Last Result |
10 |
2% |
3% |
|
11 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Kristelig Folkeparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
24% |
100% |
|
3 |
1.4% |
76% |
|
4 |
0% |
75% |
|
5 |
0% |
75% |
|
6 |
0% |
75% |
|
7 |
16% |
75% |
|
8 |
38% |
59% |
Median |
9 |
20% |
21% |
|
10 |
1.2% |
1.2% |
Last Result |
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miljøpartiet de Grønne
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet de Grønne page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
20% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
16% |
80% |
|
3 |
25% |
64% |
Median |
4 |
4% |
39% |
|
5 |
0% |
35% |
|
6 |
0% |
35% |
|
7 |
23% |
35% |
|
8 |
12% |
13% |
|
9 |
1.4% |
1.4% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Rødt
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
10% |
100% |
|
2 |
89% |
90% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
1.5% |
|
4 |
0% |
1.5% |
|
5 |
0% |
1.5% |
|
6 |
0% |
1.5% |
|
7 |
1.4% |
1.5% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti |
106 |
102 |
100% |
98–105 |
98–106 |
96–107 |
95–107 |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne |
83 |
90 |
98.5% |
86–93 |
85–94 |
85–95 |
84–98 |
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne |
97 |
88 |
88% |
84–91 |
83–92 |
83–92 |
81–94 |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne – Rødt |
73 |
85 |
57% |
82–89 |
81–89 |
81–90 |
80–93 |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne |
73 |
83 |
26% |
80–87 |
79–87 |
79–88 |
78–92 |
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti |
96 |
84 |
43% |
80–87 |
80–88 |
79–88 |
76–89 |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt |
72 |
81 |
12% |
78–85 |
77–86 |
77–86 |
75–88 |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti |
72 |
79 |
1.0% |
76–83 |
75–83 |
75–84 |
73–86 |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti |
75 |
76 |
0% |
73–79 |
71–80 |
71–80 |
70–82 |
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet |
77 |
69 |
0% |
66–73 |
66–73 |
65–74 |
62–76 |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet |
65 |
69 |
0% |
67–72 |
66–73 |
65–73 |
63–75 |
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti |
62 |
61 |
0% |
58–64 |
57–65 |
57–65 |
56–67 |
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti |
67 |
57 |
0% |
53–60 |
52–61 |
52–61 |
49–63 |
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti |
29 |
34 |
0% |
29–35 |
28–36 |
28–37 |
24–38 |
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
93 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
94 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
95 |
0.7% |
99.6% |
|
96 |
2% |
99.0% |
|
97 |
2% |
97% |
|
98 |
6% |
95% |
|
99 |
10% |
89% |
|
100 |
8% |
79% |
|
101 |
15% |
72% |
|
102 |
7% |
57% |
|
103 |
19% |
49% |
|
104 |
9% |
31% |
Median |
105 |
13% |
22% |
|
106 |
5% |
8% |
Last Result |
107 |
3% |
4% |
|
108 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
109 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
110 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
111 |
0% |
0% |
|
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
81 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
82 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
83 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
Last Result |
84 |
1.1% |
99.6% |
|
85 |
4% |
98.5% |
Majority |
86 |
7% |
95% |
|
87 |
8% |
88% |
|
88 |
7% |
80% |
|
89 |
20% |
73% |
|
90 |
16% |
53% |
Median |
91 |
9% |
37% |
|
92 |
16% |
28% |
|
93 |
6% |
12% |
|
94 |
3% |
6% |
|
95 |
1.4% |
3% |
|
96 |
0.6% |
1.2% |
|
97 |
0.2% |
0.7% |
|
98 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
99 |
0% |
0% |
|
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
80 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
81 |
0.3% |
99.6% |
|
82 |
0.4% |
99.2% |
|
83 |
4% |
98.8% |
|
84 |
7% |
95% |
|
85 |
7% |
88% |
Majority |
86 |
12% |
82% |
|
87 |
4% |
69% |
|
88 |
28% |
65% |
|
89 |
10% |
37% |
Median |
90 |
14% |
28% |
|
91 |
4% |
14% |
|
92 |
7% |
10% |
|
93 |
1.4% |
2% |
|
94 |
0.7% |
0.9% |
|
95 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
96 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
97 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne – Rødt
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
73 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
74 |
0% |
100% |
|
75 |
0% |
100% |
|
76 |
0% |
100% |
|
77 |
0% |
100% |
|
78 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
79 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
80 |
1.5% |
99.7% |
|
81 |
5% |
98% |
|
82 |
14% |
93% |
|
83 |
4% |
79% |
|
84 |
18% |
75% |
Median |
85 |
9% |
57% |
Majority |
86 |
22% |
48% |
|
87 |
8% |
26% |
|
88 |
7% |
19% |
|
89 |
8% |
11% |
|
90 |
1.3% |
4% |
|
91 |
1.0% |
2% |
|
92 |
0.5% |
1.4% |
|
93 |
0.6% |
0.9% |
|
94 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
95 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
96 |
0% |
0% |
|
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet de Grønne
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
73 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
74 |
0% |
100% |
|
75 |
0% |
100% |
|
76 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
77 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
78 |
0.7% |
99.7% |
|
79 |
6% |
99.0% |
|
80 |
14% |
93% |
|
81 |
4% |
79% |
|
82 |
18% |
75% |
Median |
83 |
8% |
57% |
|
84 |
23% |
49% |
|
85 |
7% |
26% |
Majority |
86 |
8% |
19% |
|
87 |
7% |
11% |
|
88 |
3% |
5% |
|
89 |
0.7% |
2% |
|
90 |
0.7% |
2% |
|
91 |
0.2% |
0.9% |
|
92 |
0.6% |
0.7% |
|
93 |
0% |
0% |
|
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
74 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
75 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
76 |
0.6% |
99.7% |
|
77 |
0.5% |
99.1% |
|
78 |
1.0% |
98.6% |
|
79 |
1.3% |
98% |
|
80 |
8% |
96% |
|
81 |
7% |
89% |
|
82 |
8% |
81% |
|
83 |
22% |
74% |
|
84 |
9% |
52% |
|
85 |
18% |
43% |
Majority |
86 |
4% |
25% |
Median |
87 |
14% |
21% |
|
88 |
5% |
7% |
|
89 |
1.5% |
2% |
|
90 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
91 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
92 |
0% |
0% |
|
93 |
0% |
0% |
|
94 |
0% |
0% |
|
95 |
0% |
0% |
|
96 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
72 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
73 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
74 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
75 |
0.7% |
99.8% |
|
76 |
1.4% |
99.1% |
|
77 |
7% |
98% |
|
78 |
4% |
90% |
|
79 |
14% |
86% |
|
80 |
10% |
72% |
|
81 |
28% |
63% |
Median |
82 |
4% |
35% |
|
83 |
12% |
31% |
|
84 |
7% |
18% |
|
85 |
7% |
12% |
Majority |
86 |
4% |
5% |
|
87 |
0.4% |
1.2% |
|
88 |
0.3% |
0.8% |
|
89 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
90 |
0% |
0% |
|
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
71 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
72 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
Last Result |
73 |
0.4% |
99.8% |
|
74 |
1.4% |
99.4% |
|
75 |
7% |
98% |
|
76 |
4% |
91% |
|
77 |
15% |
87% |
|
78 |
9% |
72% |
|
79 |
28% |
63% |
Median |
80 |
5% |
36% |
|
81 |
12% |
30% |
|
82 |
7% |
18% |
|
83 |
6% |
11% |
|
84 |
4% |
5% |
|
85 |
0.3% |
1.0% |
Majority |
86 |
0.3% |
0.7% |
|
87 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
88 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
89 |
0% |
0% |
|
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
68 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
69 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
70 |
2% |
99.6% |
|
71 |
3% |
98% |
|
72 |
4% |
95% |
|
73 |
6% |
91% |
|
74 |
19% |
85% |
|
75 |
9% |
66% |
Last Result |
76 |
22% |
57% |
|
77 |
5% |
35% |
Median |
78 |
17% |
30% |
|
79 |
6% |
13% |
|
80 |
5% |
7% |
|
81 |
1.3% |
2% |
|
82 |
0.8% |
1.0% |
|
83 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
84 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
85 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
61 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
62 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
|
63 |
0.8% |
99.5% |
|
64 |
0.9% |
98.6% |
|
65 |
2% |
98% |
|
66 |
7% |
95% |
|
67 |
15% |
89% |
|
68 |
13% |
74% |
|
69 |
12% |
61% |
|
70 |
24% |
49% |
Median |
71 |
3% |
25% |
|
72 |
10% |
22% |
|
73 |
10% |
12% |
|
74 |
0.7% |
3% |
|
75 |
1.2% |
2% |
|
76 |
0.6% |
0.7% |
|
77 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
78 |
0% |
0% |
|
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
62 |
0% |
100% |
|
63 |
0.5% |
99.9% |
|
64 |
0.7% |
99.5% |
|
65 |
3% |
98.8% |
Last Result |
66 |
5% |
96% |
|
67 |
9% |
91% |
|
68 |
24% |
82% |
|
69 |
21% |
58% |
Median |
70 |
7% |
37% |
|
71 |
10% |
30% |
|
72 |
13% |
20% |
|
73 |
5% |
6% |
|
74 |
0.6% |
1.4% |
|
75 |
0.5% |
0.8% |
|
76 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
77 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
78 |
0% |
0% |
|
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
55 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
56 |
0.4% |
99.7% |
|
57 |
6% |
99.3% |
|
58 |
4% |
93% |
|
59 |
16% |
90% |
|
60 |
7% |
74% |
|
61 |
32% |
66% |
Median |
62 |
18% |
34% |
Last Result |
63 |
5% |
17% |
|
64 |
3% |
12% |
|
65 |
7% |
9% |
|
66 |
0.8% |
2% |
|
67 |
0.6% |
0.8% |
|
68 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
48 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
49 |
0.6% |
99.8% |
|
50 |
0.6% |
99.3% |
|
51 |
0.4% |
98.7% |
|
52 |
5% |
98% |
|
53 |
7% |
94% |
|
54 |
4% |
87% |
|
55 |
24% |
83% |
|
56 |
6% |
59% |
|
57 |
12% |
53% |
|
58 |
7% |
41% |
Median |
59 |
16% |
34% |
|
60 |
10% |
18% |
|
61 |
5% |
8% |
|
62 |
1.3% |
2% |
|
63 |
0.8% |
1.0% |
|
64 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
24 |
0.5% |
99.9% |
|
25 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
26 |
0.8% |
99.3% |
|
27 |
1.0% |
98% |
|
28 |
5% |
98% |
|
29 |
9% |
92% |
Last Result |
30 |
10% |
83% |
|
31 |
6% |
74% |
|
32 |
9% |
68% |
|
33 |
6% |
59% |
|
34 |
19% |
53% |
Median |
35 |
25% |
34% |
|
36 |
6% |
10% |
|
37 |
3% |
4% |
|
38 |
0.4% |
0.8% |
|
39 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
40 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Pollster: Kantar TNS
- Media: TV2
- Fieldwork period: 4–9 September 2017
Calculations
- Sample size: 2453
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.25%