Opinion Poll by Opinia24, 10–11 June 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 32.2% 30.3–34.1% 29.8–34.7% 29.3–35.1% 28.5–36.1%
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 30.7% 28.8–32.6% 28.3–33.1% 27.9–33.6% 27.0–34.5%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 6.3% 5.4–7.4% 5.2–7.7% 4.9–8.0% 4.6–8.5%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 5.5% 4.7–6.5% 4.4–6.8% 4.2–7.1% 3.9–7.6%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 4.2% 3.5–5.1% 3.3–5.4% 3.1–5.6% 2.8–6.1%
Ruch Narodowy (NI) 0.0% 4.1% 3.4–5.0% 3.2–5.3% 3.0–5.5% 2.7–6.0%
Bezpartyjni Samorządowcy (*) 0.0% 3.7% 3.0–4.6% 2.9–4.8% 2.7–5.1% 2.4–5.5%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 3.5% 2.9–4.4% 2.7–4.6% 2.5–4.8% 2.2–5.3%
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0.0% 2.7% 2.1–3.5% 2.0–3.7% 1.9–3.9% 1.6–4.3%
Lewica Razem (NI) 0.0% 2.3% 1.8–3.0% 1.6–3.2% 1.5–3.4% 1.3–3.8%
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0.0% 1.8% 1.4–2.5% 1.2–2.7% 1.1–2.8% 1.0–3.2%
Inicjatywa Polska (NI) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%
Polska Jest Jedna (*) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.6%
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0.0% 0.4% 0.2–0.8% 0.2–0.9% 0.2–1.0% 0.1–1.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 19 19 18–20 18–21 17–22
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 17 16–17 16–18 16–19 15–19
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 4 3–4 3–4 3–4 2–5
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 4 3–4 2–4 2–4 2–5
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–4
Ruch Narodowy (NI) 0 3 2–3 2–3 1–3 1–3
Bezpartyjni Samorządowcy (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0–2
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 2 2 1–2 1–3 1–3
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Lewica Razem (NI) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 0–2
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Inicjatywa Polska (NI) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Polska Jest Jedna (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0.8% 100%  
18 7% 99.2%  
19 83% 92% Median
20 5% 9%  
21 4% 4%  
22 0.5% 0.5%  
23 0% 0%  

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0.1% 100%  
15 1.4% 99.9%  
16 9% 98%  
17 81% 89% Median
18 5% 8%  
19 4% 4%  
20 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 2% 100%  
3 23% 98%  
4 74% 75% Median
5 1.4% 1.4%  
6 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 7% 100%  
3 20% 93%  
4 72% 73% Median
5 0.6% 0.6%  
6 0% 0%  

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.3% 100%  
2 85% 99.7% Median
3 14% 14%  
4 0.6% 0.6%  
5 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 4% 100%  
2 18% 96%  
3 79% 79% Median
4 0% 0%  

Bezpartyjni Samorządowcy (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bezpartyjni Samorządowcy (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.2% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.8%  
2 0.3% 0.8%  
3 0.4% 0.4%  
4 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 10% 100%  
2 87% 90% Median
3 3% 3%  
4 0% 0%  

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100% Last Result
1 74% 99.8% Median
2 26% 26%  
3 0.2% 0.2%  
4 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.3% 100% Last Result
1 88% 98.7% Median
2 10% 10%  
3 0% 0%  

.Nowoczesna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 70% 100% Last Result, Median
1 30% 30%  
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 3% 3%  
2 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.4% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.6% 0.6%  
2 0% 0%  

Polska Jest Jedna (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska Jest Jedna (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Centrum dla Polski (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centrum dla Polski (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.3% 0.3%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 4 0% 3–4 2–4 2–4 2–5
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0–1

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 7% 100%  
3 20% 93%  
4 72% 73% Median
5 0.6% 0.6%  
6 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.4% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.6% 0.6%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations