Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)
Voting Intentions
Last result: 0.0% (General Election of 9 June 2024)
Confidence Intervals
Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
N/A | Poll Average | 5.8% | 4.5–7.8% | 4.2–8.4% | 4.0–8.8% | 3.5–9.5% |
25–27 October 2024 | United Surveys WP.pl |
5.2% | 4.4–6.2% | 4.2–6.5% | 4.0–6.8% | 3.6–7.3% |
25–26 October 2024 | IBRiS Rzeczpospolita |
4.7% | 3.9–5.6% | 3.7–5.9% | 3.6–6.1% | 3.2–6.6% |
15–18 October 2024 | Opinia24 TVN24 |
5.8% | 4.9–6.9% | 4.7–7.2% | 4.5–7.4% | 4.1–8.0% |
11–14 October 2024 | IBRiS Wydarzenia Polsat |
5.0% | 4.3–6.0% | 4.0–6.2% | 3.9–6.5% | 3.5–7.0% |
7–9 October 2024 | Opinia24 Gazeta Wyborcza |
5.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
5–6 October 2024 | Instytut Badań Pollster Super Express |
6.2% | 5.3–7.2% | 5.0–7.5% | 4.8–7.8% | 4.4–8.4% |
29–30 September 2024 | Instytut Badań Pollster TVP Info |
5.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
27–29 September 2024 | United Surveys WP.pl |
5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.3% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.5–7.1% |
20–21 September 2024 | United Surveys WP.pl |
4.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
10–18 September 2024 | Ipsos Krytyka Polityczna |
7.7% | 6.7–8.9% | 6.4–9.2% | 6.2–9.5% | 5.8–10.1% |
13–16 September 2024 | Research Partner Ariadna |
5.3% | 4.5–6.3% | 4.3–6.6% | 4.1–6.8% | 3.7–7.3% |
9–10 September 2024 | IBRiS Wydarzenia Polsat |
4.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
30–31 August 2024 | IBRiS Rzeczpospolita |
3.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
5–8 August 2024 | Opinia24 | 5.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
8 August 2024 | Instytut Badań Pollster Super Express |
6.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
26–28 July 2024 | United Surveys WP.pl |
4.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
24–25 July 2024 | IBRiS Onet.pl |
5.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
19–22 July 2024 | Research Partner Ariadna |
5.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
8–11 July 2024 | Opinia24 | 6.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
8–9 July 2024 | Instytut Badań Pollster Super Express |
6.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
5–8 July 2024 | United Surveys WP.pl |
5.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
21–23 June 2024 | United Surveys WP.pl |
5.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
21–22 June 2024 | IBRiS Rzeczpospolita |
5.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
23–21 June 2024 | United Surveys WP.pl |
5.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
18–19 June 2024 | IBRiS Onet.pl |
4.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
10–11 June 2024 | Opinia24 | 5.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Nowa Nadzieja (ESN).
Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
0.5–1.5% | 0% | 100% | |
1.5–2.5% | 0% | 100% | |
2.5–3.5% | 0.5% | 100% | |
3.5–4.5% | 11% | 99.5% | |
4.5–5.5% | 30% | 88% | |
5.5–6.5% | 29% | 59% | Median |
6.5–7.5% | 16% | 30% | |
7.5–8.5% | 10% | 13% | |
8.5–9.5% | 3% | 4% | |
9.5–10.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
10.5–11.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 0 seats (General Election of 9 June 2024)
Confidence Intervals
Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
N/A | Poll Average | 3 | 2–4 | 2–5 | 2–5 | 2–5 |
25–27 October 2024 | United Surveys WP.pl |
3 | 3 | 3–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
25–26 October 2024 | IBRiS Rzeczpospolita |
2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–4 |
15–18 October 2024 | Opinia24 TVN24 |
3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 2–4 |
11–14 October 2024 | IBRiS Wydarzenia Polsat |
3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
7–9 October 2024 | Opinia24 Gazeta Wyborcza |
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5–6 October 2024 | Instytut Badań Pollster Super Express |
4 | 3–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–5 |
29–30 September 2024 | Instytut Badań Pollster TVP Info |
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27–29 September 2024 | United Surveys WP.pl |
3 | 2–3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
20–21 September 2024 | United Surveys WP.pl |
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10–18 September 2024 | Ipsos Krytyka Polityczna |
4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 3–5 | 3–6 |
13–16 September 2024 | Research Partner Ariadna |
3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
9–10 September 2024 | IBRiS Wydarzenia Polsat |
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30–31 August 2024 | IBRiS Rzeczpospolita |
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5–8 August 2024 | Opinia24 | |||||
8 August 2024 | Instytut Badań Pollster Super Express |
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26–28 July 2024 | United Surveys WP.pl |
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24–25 July 2024 | IBRiS Onet.pl |
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19–22 July 2024 | Research Partner Ariadna |
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8–11 July 2024 | Opinia24 | |||||
8–9 July 2024 | Instytut Badań Pollster Super Express |
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5–8 July 2024 | United Surveys WP.pl |
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21–23 June 2024 | United Surveys WP.pl |
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21–22 June 2024 | IBRiS Rzeczpospolita |
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23–21 June 2024 | United Surveys WP.pl |
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18–19 June 2024 | IBRiS Onet.pl |
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10–11 June 2024 | Opinia24 |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Nowa Nadzieja (ESN).
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
1 | 0% | 100% | |
2 | 15% | 100% | |
3 | 45% | 85% | Median |
4 | 32% | 40% | |
5 | 8% | 8% | |
6 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
7 | 0% | 0% |