Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)
Voting Intentions
Last result: 0.0% (General Election of 9 June 2024)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 7.9% | 6.6–9.5% | 6.2–9.9% | 6.0–10.3% | 5.4–11.0% |
| 4–6 April 2025 | United Surveys WP.pl |
7.4% | 6.4–8.6% | 6.1–8.9% | 5.8–9.2% | 5.4–9.8% |
| 3–4 April 2025 | Pollster TV Republika |
7.7% | 6.7–8.9% | 6.4–9.2% | 6.2–9.5% | 5.7–10.1% |
| 31 March–1 April 2025 | Pollster SE.pl |
8.1% | 7.1–9.4% | 6.8–9.7% | 6.6–10.0% | 6.1–10.6% |
| 21–24 March 2025 | Research Partner | 7.1% | 6.1–8.2% | 5.8–8.6% | 5.6–8.9% | 5.2–9.4% |
| 21–23 March 2025 | United Surveys WP.pl |
7.4% | 6.4–8.7% | 6.1–9.1% | 5.9–9.4% | 5.4–10.0% |
| 17–21 March 2025 | Opinia24 | 8.7% | 7.7–10.0% | 7.3–10.4% | 7.1–10.7% | 6.6–11.3% |
| 10–13 March 2025 | Opinia24 RMF FM |
10.1% | 8.6–11.9% | 8.2–12.4% | 7.9–12.8% | 7.2–13.7% |
| 11–13 March 2025 | Ipsos TVP |
7.7% | 6.5–9.3% | 6.1–9.8% | 5.9–10.2% | 5.3–11.0% |
| 7–9 March 2025 | United Surveys WP.pl |
8.7% | 7.6–10.0% | 7.3–10.4% | 7.0–10.7% | 6.5–11.4% |
| 7–9 March 2025 | Pollster SE.pl |
7.7% | 6.7–8.9% | 6.4–9.2% | 6.2–9.5% | 5.8–10.1% |
| 7–8 March 2025 | IBRiS Rzeczpospolita |
8.7% | 7.7–10.0% | 7.3–10.4% | 7.1–10.7% | 6.6–11.4% |
| 1–28 February 2025 | Social Changes | 7.5% | 6.4–8.7% | 6.2–9.1% | 5.9–9.4% | 5.5–10.0% |
| 19–26 February 2025 | OGB | 8.6% | 7.6–9.8% | 7.3–10.2% | 7.0–10.5% | 6.5–11.1% |
| 21–24 February 2025 | United Surveys WP.pl |
7.6% | 6.6–8.9% | 6.3–9.2% | 6.1–9.5% | 5.6–10.1% |
| 21–24 February 2025 | Research Partner Ariadna |
6.9% | 6.0–8.1% | 5.7–8.4% | 5.5–8.7% | 5.1–9.3% |
| 17–21 February 2025 | Opinia24 | 7.8% | 6.8–9.0% | 6.5–9.4% | 6.2–9.7% | 5.8–10.3% |
| 19–21 February 2025 | Ipsos Liberté! |
7.2% | 6.2–8.4% | 6.0–8.7% | 5.7–9.0% | 5.3–9.6% |
| 17–18 February 2025 | Ipsos TVP |
7.7% | 6.4–9.3% | 6.1–9.8% | 5.8–10.2% | 5.3–11.0% |
| 10–13 February 2025 | Opinia24 RMF FM |
8.8% | 7.7–10.1% | 7.4–10.4% | 7.1–10.8% | 6.7–11.4% |
| 8–10 February 2025 | Instytut Badań Pollster Super Express |
7.1% | 6.1–8.2% | 5.9–8.5% | 5.7–8.7% | 5.3–9.3% |
| 8–9 February 2025 | United Surveys WP.pl |
6.4% | 5.4–7.5% | 5.2–7.8% | 4.9–8.1% | 4.5–8.7% |
| 7–8 February 2025 | IBRiS Rzeczpospolita |
5.5% | 4.7–6.5% | 4.5–6.8% | 4.3–7.1% | 3.9–7.6% |
| 31 January–2 February 2025 | IBRiS Onet.pl |
5.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 23–29 January 2025 | Opinia24 Radio ZET |
7.9% | 6.8–9.1% | 6.5–9.5% | 6.3–9.8% | 5.8–10.4% |
| 24–27 January 2025 | Research Partner Ariadna |
6.4% | 5.5–7.6% | 5.3–7.9% | 5.1–8.2% | 4.7–8.7% |
| 24–26 January 2025 | United Surveys WP.pl |
6.3% | 5.4–7.4% | 5.1–7.8% | 4.9–8.1% | 4.5–8.6% |
| 20–24 January 2025 | Opinia24 | 6.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 21–23 January 2025 | OGB | 8.1% | 7.1–9.3% | 6.8–9.7% | 6.6–10.0% | 6.1–10.6% |
| 17–18 January 2025 | Instytut Badań Pollster Super Express |
6.4% | 5.5–7.5% | 5.2–7.8% | 5.0–8.1% | 4.6–8.6% |
| 14–16 January 2025 | Ipsos TVP |
5.9% | 5.0–7.0% | 4.7–7.3% | 4.5–7.6% | 4.1–8.2% |
| 10–12 January 2025 | United Surveys WP.pl |
6.4% | 5.5–7.6% | 5.3–7.9% | 5.0–8.2% | 4.6–8.8% |
| 10–11 January 2025 | IBRiS Rzeczpospolita |
6.0% | 5.2–7.1% | 4.9–7.4% | 4.7–7.7% | 4.3–8.3% |
| 7–9 January 2025 | Opinia24 RMF FM |
6.6% | 5.6–7.7% | 5.4–8.1% | 5.2–8.4% | 4.7–9.0% |
| 20–22 December 2024 | United Surveys WP.pl |
5.1% | 4.2–6.1% | 4.0–6.4% | 3.8–6.7% | 3.4–7.3% |
| 17–18 December 2024 | Ipsos TVP |
7.2% | 6.2–8.4% | 6.0–8.7% | 5.7–9.0% | 5.3–9.6% |
| 17 December 2024 | Opinia24 RMF FM |
6.9% | 6.0–8.0% | 5.7–8.4% | 5.5–8.7% | 5.1–9.2% |
| 10–11 December 2024 | Instytut Badań Pollster Super Express |
6.0% | 5.1–7.0% | 4.9–7.3% | 4.7–7.6% | 4.3–8.2% |
| 6–8 December 2024 | United Surveys WP.pl |
5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.3% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.5–7.1% |
| 6–7 December 2024 | IBRiS Rzeczpospolita |
3.5% | 2.9–4.4% | 2.7–4.6% | 2.6–4.8% | 2.3–5.3% |
| 3–6 December 2024 | Opinia24 | 6.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 25–26 November 2024 | Instytut Badań Pollster Super Express |
5.9% | 5.1–7.0% | 4.8–7.3% | 4.6–7.5% | 4.2–8.1% |
| 22–24 November 2024 | United Surveys WP.pl |
5.2% | 4.4–6.2% | 4.2–6.5% | 4.0–6.8% | 3.6–7.3% |
| 24 November 2024 | Opinia24 TVN24 |
6.3% | 5.4–7.4% | 5.2–7.7% | 5.0–8.0% | 4.6–8.6% |
| 13–18 November 2024 | Opinia24 Radio ZET |
6.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 12–15 November 2024 | Opinia24 | 6.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 12–13 November 2024 | Instytut Badań Pollster Super Express |
6.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 8–11 November 2024 | Research Partner Ariadna |
5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.2% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.5–7.0% |
| 11–10 November 2024 | United Surveys WP.pl |
4.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 25–27 October 2024 | United Surveys WP.pl |
5.2% | 4.4–6.2% | 4.2–6.5% | 4.0–6.8% | 3.6–7.3% |
| 25–26 October 2024 | IBRiS Rzeczpospolita |
4.7% | 3.9–5.6% | 3.7–5.9% | 3.6–6.1% | 3.2–6.6% |
| 15–18 October 2024 | Opinia24 TVN24 |
5.8% | 4.9–6.9% | 4.7–7.2% | 4.5–7.4% | 4.1–8.0% |
| 11–14 October 2024 | IBRiS Wydarzenia Polsat |
5.0% | 4.3–6.0% | 4.0–6.2% | 3.9–6.5% | 3.5–7.0% |
| 7–9 October 2024 | Opinia24 Gazeta Wyborcza |
5.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 5–6 October 2024 | Instytut Badań Pollster Super Express |
6.2% | 5.3–7.2% | 5.0–7.5% | 4.8–7.8% | 4.4–8.4% |
| 29–30 September 2024 | Instytut Badań Pollster TVP Info |
5.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 27–29 September 2024 | United Surveys WP.pl |
5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.3% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.5–7.1% |
| 20–21 September 2024 | United Surveys WP.pl |
4.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 10–18 September 2024 | Ipsos Krytyka Polityczna |
7.7% | 6.7–8.9% | 6.4–9.2% | 6.2–9.5% | 5.8–10.1% |
| 13–16 September 2024 | Research Partner Ariadna |
5.3% | 4.5–6.3% | 4.3–6.6% | 4.1–6.8% | 3.7–7.3% |
| 9–10 September 2024 | IBRiS Wydarzenia Polsat |
4.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 30–31 August 2024 | IBRiS Rzeczpospolita |
3.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 5–8 August 2024 | Opinia24 | 5.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 8 August 2024 | Instytut Badań Pollster Super Express |
6.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 26–28 July 2024 | United Surveys WP.pl |
4.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 24–25 July 2024 | IBRiS Onet.pl |
5.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 19–22 July 2024 | Research Partner Ariadna |
5.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 8–11 July 2024 | Opinia24 | 6.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 8–9 July 2024 | Instytut Badań Pollster Super Express |
6.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 5–8 July 2024 | United Surveys WP.pl |
5.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 21–23 June 2024 | United Surveys WP.pl |
5.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 21–22 June 2024 | IBRiS Rzeczpospolita |
5.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 23–21 June 2024 | United Surveys WP.pl |
5.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 18–19 June 2024 | IBRiS Onet.pl |
4.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 10–11 June 2024 | Opinia24 | 5.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Nowa Nadzieja (ESN).
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 0.5–1.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 9% | 99.3% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 27% | 90% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 33% | 63% | Median |
| 8.5–9.5% | 21% | 30% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 7% | 9% | |
| 10.5–11.5% | 1.3% | 1.4% | |
| 11.5–12.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 12.5–13.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 0 seats (General Election of 9 June 2024)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 5 | 4–5 | 3–6 | 3–6 | 3–6 |
| 4–6 April 2025 | United Surveys WP.pl |
5 | 4–5 | 3–5 | 3–6 | 3–6 |
| 3–4 April 2025 | Pollster TV Republika |
5 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 3–6 | 3–6 |
| 31 March–1 April 2025 | Pollster SE.pl |
5 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| 21–24 March 2025 | Research Partner | 4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| 21–23 March 2025 | United Surveys WP.pl |
5 | 5–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
| 17–21 March 2025 | Opinia24 | 5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
| 10–13 March 2025 | Opinia24 RMF FM |
5 | 5–7 | 4–7 | 4–8 | 4–8 |
| 11–13 March 2025 | Ipsos TVP |
4 | 3–5 | 3–6 | 3–6 | 3–6 |
| 7–9 March 2025 | United Surveys WP.pl |
5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| 7–9 March 2025 | Pollster SE.pl |
4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–6 | 3–6 |
| 7–8 March 2025 | IBRiS Rzeczpospolita |
5 | 5 | 5–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| 1–28 February 2025 | Social Changes | 4 | 4–5 | 3–5 | 3–6 | 3–6 |
| 19–26 February 2025 | OGB | 5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| 21–24 February 2025 | United Surveys WP.pl |
4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 3–6 |
| 21–24 February 2025 | Research Partner Ariadna |
4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| 17–21 February 2025 | Opinia24 | 4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 3–5 | 3–6 |
| 19–21 February 2025 | Ipsos Liberté! |
4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–6 | 3–6 |
| 17–18 February 2025 | Ipsos TVP |
5 | 4–5 | 3–5 | 3–6 | 3–6 |
| 10–13 February 2025 | Opinia24 RMF FM |
5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 | 4–7 |
| 8–10 February 2025 | Instytut Badań Pollster Super Express |
4 | 4–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| 8–9 February 2025 | United Surveys WP.pl |
4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 2–5 |
| 7–8 February 2025 | IBRiS Rzeczpospolita |
3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–5 |
| 31 January–2 February 2025 | IBRiS Onet.pl |
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| 23–29 January 2025 | Opinia24 Radio ZET |
5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 3–6 | 3–6 |
| 24–27 January 2025 | Research Partner Ariadna |
4 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 2–5 |
| 24–26 January 2025 | United Surveys WP.pl |
3 | 3 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–5 |
| 20–24 January 2025 | Opinia24 | |||||
| 21–23 January 2025 | OGB | 5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 3–6 | 3–6 |
| 17–18 January 2025 | Instytut Badań Pollster Super Express |
4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 2–5 |
| 14–16 January 2025 | Ipsos TVP |
3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 2–4 | 2–5 |
| 10–12 January 2025 | United Surveys WP.pl |
3 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 2–5 |
| 10–11 January 2025 | IBRiS Rzeczpospolita |
3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 |
| 7–9 January 2025 | Opinia24 RMF FM |
4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 2–5 |
| 20–22 December 2024 | United Surveys WP.pl |
3 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–4 |
| 17–18 December 2024 | Ipsos TVP |
4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–6 |
| 17 December 2024 | Opinia24 RMF FM |
4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| 10–11 December 2024 | Instytut Badań Pollster Super Express |
4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 2–4 | 2–5 |
| 6–8 December 2024 | United Surveys WP.pl |
3 | 2–3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| 6–7 December 2024 | IBRiS Rzeczpospolita |
2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1–3 |
| 3–6 December 2024 | Opinia24 | |||||
| 25–26 November 2024 | Instytut Badań Pollster Super Express |
3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 2–5 | 2–5 |
| 22–24 November 2024 | United Surveys WP.pl |
3 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–4 |
| 24 November 2024 | Opinia24 TVN24 |
4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| 13–18 November 2024 | Opinia24 Radio ZET |
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| 12–15 November 2024 | Opinia24 | |||||
| 12–13 November 2024 | Instytut Badań Pollster Super Express |
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| 8–11 November 2024 | Research Partner Ariadna |
3 | 2–3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| 11–10 November 2024 | United Surveys WP.pl |
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| 25–27 October 2024 | United Surveys WP.pl |
3 | 3 | 3–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| 25–26 October 2024 | IBRiS Rzeczpospolita |
2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–4 |
| 15–18 October 2024 | Opinia24 TVN24 |
3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 2–4 |
| 11–14 October 2024 | IBRiS Wydarzenia Polsat |
3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| 7–9 October 2024 | Opinia24 Gazeta Wyborcza |
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| 5–6 October 2024 | Instytut Badań Pollster Super Express |
4 | 3–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–5 |
| 29–30 September 2024 | Instytut Badań Pollster TVP Info |
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| 27–29 September 2024 | United Surveys WP.pl |
3 | 2–3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| 20–21 September 2024 | United Surveys WP.pl |
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| 10–18 September 2024 | Ipsos Krytyka Polityczna |
4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 3–5 | 3–6 |
| 13–16 September 2024 | Research Partner Ariadna |
3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| 9–10 September 2024 | IBRiS Wydarzenia Polsat |
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| 30–31 August 2024 | IBRiS Rzeczpospolita |
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| 5–8 August 2024 | Opinia24 | |||||
| 8 August 2024 | Instytut Badań Pollster Super Express |
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| 26–28 July 2024 | United Surveys WP.pl |
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| 24–25 July 2024 | IBRiS Onet.pl |
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| 19–22 July 2024 | Research Partner Ariadna |
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| 8–11 July 2024 | Opinia24 | |||||
| 8–9 July 2024 | Instytut Badań Pollster Super Express |
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| 5–8 July 2024 | United Surveys WP.pl |
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| 21–23 June 2024 | United Surveys WP.pl |
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| 21–22 June 2024 | IBRiS Rzeczpospolita |
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| 23–21 June 2024 | United Surveys WP.pl |
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| 18–19 June 2024 | IBRiS Onet.pl |
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| 10–11 June 2024 | Opinia24 |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Nowa Nadzieja (ESN).
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 7% | 100% | |
| 4 | 40% | 93% | |
| 5 | 46% | 53% | Median |
| 6 | 7% | 7% | |
| 7 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |