Opinion Poll by IBRiS for Rzeczpospolita, 21–22 June 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 36.4% 34.5–38.3% 34.0–38.8% 33.5–39.3% 32.6–40.2%
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 31.9% 30.1–33.7% 29.6–34.3% 29.1–34.7% 28.3–35.6%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 5.2% 4.5–6.2% 4.2–6.5% 4.1–6.8% 3.7–7.3%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 5.2% 4.4–6.1% 4.2–6.4% 4.0–6.7% 3.6–7.1%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 4.9% 4.1–5.8% 3.9–6.1% 3.7–6.3% 3.4–6.8%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 4.2% 3.5–5.1% 3.3–5.4% 3.2–5.6% 2.9–6.1%
Ruch Narodowy (NI) 0.0% 3.8% 3.2–4.7% 3.0–5.0% 2.8–5.2% 2.6–5.6%
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0.0% 2.5% 2.0–3.3% 1.9–3.5% 1.7–3.7% 1.5–4.1%
Lewica Razem (NI) 0.0% 1.8% 1.4–2.4% 1.2–2.6% 1.1–2.8% 1.0–3.1%
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0.0% 1.8% 1.4–2.4% 1.2–2.6% 1.1–2.8% 1.0–3.1%
Inicjatywa Polska (NI) 0.0% 0.7% 0.4–1.1% 0.4–1.2% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.6%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.7% 0.4–1.1% 0.4–1.2% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.6%
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0.0% 0.5% 0.3–0.9% 0.2–1.0% 0.2–1.1% 0.1–1.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 21 19–21 18–21 18–21 18–21
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 17 17–18 17–19 17–19 16–20
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–4
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 4 3–4 3–4 2–4 2–4
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–4 2–4
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 2 2 2 2–3 1–3
Ruch Narodowy (NI) 0 2 2–3 2–3 1–3 1–3
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0 1 1 1 1–2 0–2
Lewica Razem (NI) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0 1 1 1 0–1 0–1
Inicjatywa Polska (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0.2% 100%  
18 7% 99.8%  
19 6% 93%  
20 33% 87%  
21 54% 54% Median
22 0.2% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.6% 100%  
17 55% 99.4% Median
18 36% 44%  
19 6% 9%  
20 2% 2%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.1% 100%  
2 84% 99.9% Median
3 15% 16%  
4 0.9% 0.9%  
5 0% 0%  

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 3% 100%  
3 44% 97%  
4 53% 53% Median
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.9%  
2 54% 99.9% Median
3 43% 46%  
4 3% 3%  
5 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 1.3% 100%  
2 95% 98.7% Median
3 4% 4%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 3% 100%  
2 64% 97% Median
3 32% 33%  
4 0.3% 0.3%  
5 0% 0%  

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100% Last Result
1 93% 98% Median
2 5% 5%  
3 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 35% 100% Last Result
1 65% 65% Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

.Nowoczesna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100% Last Result
1 95% 95% Median
2 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.3% 0.3%  
2 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.5% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.5% 1.5%  
2 0% 0%  

Centrum dla Polski (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centrum dla Polski (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 2 0% 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–4
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0–1

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.1% 100%  
2 84% 99.9% Median
3 15% 16%  
4 0.9% 0.9%  
5 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.5% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.5% 1.5%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations