Opinion Poll by United Surveys for WP.pl, 21–23 June 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 34.6% 32.7–36.6% 32.2–37.1% 31.7–37.6% 30.8–38.6%
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 32.1% 30.2–34.0% 29.7–34.6% 29.3–35.1% 28.4–36.0%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 5.8% 5.0–6.9% 4.7–7.2% 4.5–7.4% 4.1–8.0%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 5.5% 4.7–6.5% 4.4–6.8% 4.3–7.1% 3.9–7.6%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 4.8% 4.0–5.8% 3.8–6.1% 3.6–6.3% 3.3–6.8%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 4.7% 3.9–5.7% 3.7–6.0% 3.6–6.2% 3.2–6.7%
Ruch Narodowy (NI) 0.0% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.7–5.9%
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0.0% 2.7% 2.1–3.5% 2.0–3.7% 1.9–3.9% 1.6–4.3%
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0.0% 1.8% 1.4–2.5% 1.2–2.7% 1.1–2.8% 1.0–3.2%
Lewica Razem (NI) 0.0% 1.7% 1.3–2.4% 1.2–2.5% 1.1–2.7% 0.9–3.1%
Inicjatywa Polska (NI) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 19 17–20 17–20 17–20 17–21
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 18 17–19 17–20 17–20 17–21
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 3 3–4 3–4 2–4 2–4
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 3 2–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–4
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–4 0–4
Ruch Narodowy (NI) 0 2 2–3 1–3 1–3 1–3
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–3
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Lewica Razem (NI) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Inicjatywa Polska (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.3% 100%  
17 11% 99.7%  
18 16% 89%  
19 44% 73% Median
20 28% 29%  
21 0.7% 0.7%  
22 0% 0%  

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.3% 99.9%  
17 24% 99.6%  
18 41% 76% Median
19 26% 35%  
20 9% 9%  
21 0.5% 0.5%  
22 0% 0%  

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 4% 100%  
3 76% 96% Median
4 20% 20%  
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 17% 100%  
3 62% 83% Median
4 21% 21%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 43% 100%  
3 55% 57% Median
4 2% 2%  
5 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100% Last Result
1 0.1% 98%  
2 43% 98%  
3 50% 55% Median
4 5% 5%  
5 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 6% 100%  
2 70% 94% Median
3 23% 23%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100% Last Result
1 85% 99.8% Median
2 14% 15%  
3 0.5% 0.5%  
4 0% 0%  

.Nowoczesna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 36% 100% Last Result
1 63% 64% Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 44% 100% Last Result
1 56% 56% Median
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.3% 0.3%  
2 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.2% 0.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Centrum dla Polski (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centrum dla Polski (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.2% 0.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 3 0% 2–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 17% 100%  
3 62% 83% Median
4 21% 21%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.2% 0.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations