Opinion Poll by United Surveys for WP.pl, 5–8 July 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 32.9% 31.0–34.9% 30.5–35.4% 30.1–35.9% 29.2–36.8%
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 31.6% 29.8–33.5% 29.2–34.1% 28.8–34.6% 27.9–35.5%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 6.5% 5.6–7.6% 5.3–7.9% 5.1–8.2% 4.7–8.8%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 5.8% 5.0–6.9% 4.7–7.2% 4.5–7.4% 4.1–8.0%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 5.5% 4.7–6.5% 4.4–6.8% 4.3–7.1% 3.9–7.6%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 4.5% 3.8–5.5% 3.6–5.7% 3.4–6.0% 3.0–6.5%
Ruch Narodowy (NI) 0.0% 4.2% 3.5–5.1% 3.3–5.4% 3.1–5.6% 2.8–6.1%
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0.0% 2.8% 2.2–3.6% 2.1–3.8% 1.9–4.0% 1.7–4.4%
Lewica Razem (NI) 0.0% 2.4% 1.9–3.2% 1.7–3.4% 1.6–3.6% 1.4–3.9%
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0.0% 1.8% 1.4–2.5% 1.2–2.7% 1.1–2.8% 1.0–3.2%
Inicjatywa Polska (NI) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0.0% 0.5% 0.3–0.9% 0.3–1.1% 0.2–1.2% 0.2–1.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 19 18–21 17–21 17–21 16–21
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 17 16–18 15–18 14–19 14–19
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 3 3–4 2–4 2–4 2–5
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 3 3–4 2–4 2–4 2–5
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 3 2–3 2–4 2–4 2–4
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 1–4
Ruch Narodowy (NI) 0 2 1–3 1–3 1–3 1–3
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–3 1–3
Lewica Razem (NI) 0 1 1 0–1 0–2 0–2
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Inicjatywa Polska (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 2% 100%  
17 4% 98%  
18 18% 94%  
19 41% 76% Median
20 12% 35%  
21 23% 23%  
22 0% 0%  

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 3% 100%  
15 3% 97%  
16 24% 94%  
17 33% 71% Median
18 34% 38%  
19 4% 4%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 6% 100%  
3 51% 94% Median
4 42% 43%  
5 1.1% 1.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 9% 100%  
3 74% 91% Median
4 16% 18%  
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 36% 100%  
3 56% 64% Median
4 8% 8%  
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.7% 100%  
2 49% 99.3% Median
3 49% 50%  
4 0.5% 0.5%  
5 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 25% 100%  
2 46% 75% Median
3 29% 29%  
4 0.2% 0.2%  
5 0% 0%  

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100% Last Result
1 77% 99.8% Median
2 19% 23%  
3 3% 3%  
4 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 9% 100% Last Result
1 87% 91% Median
2 4% 4%  
3 0% 0%  

.Nowoczesna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 32% 100% Last Result
1 66% 68% Median
2 1.5% 1.5%  
3 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.2% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.8% 0.8%  
2 0% 0%  

Centrum dla Polski (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centrum dla Polski (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 3 0% 3–4 2–4 2–4 2–5
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0–1

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 9% 100%  
3 74% 91% Median
4 16% 18%  
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.2% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.8% 0.8%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations