Opinion Poll by Instytut Badań Pollster for Super Express, 8–9 July 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 33.3% 31.4–35.2% 30.9–35.7% 30.5–36.2% 29.6–37.1%
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 31.9% 30.1–33.8% 29.6–34.4% 29.1–34.8% 28.3–35.8%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 6.6% 5.7–7.7% 5.5–8.0% 5.2–8.3% 4.8–8.9%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 6.0% 5.2–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.7% 4.3–8.2%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 4.8% 4.0–5.7% 3.8–6.0% 3.6–6.2% 3.3–6.8%
Ruch Narodowy (NI) 0.0% 4.4% 3.7–5.3% 3.5–5.6% 3.3–5.8% 3.0–6.3%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 3.0–5.4% 2.7–5.8%
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0.0% 2.9% 2.3–3.7% 2.2–3.9% 2.0–4.1% 1.8–4.6%
Lewica Razem (NI) 0.0% 2.4% 1.9–3.2% 1.8–3.4% 1.6–3.6% 1.4–4.0%
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0.0% 1.8% 1.3–2.4% 1.2–2.6% 1.1–2.8% 0.9–3.1%
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0.0% 0.7% 0.4–1.1% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.7% 0.4–1.1% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0.0% 0.5% 0.3–0.9% 0.2–1.0% 0.2–1.1% 0.1–1.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 18 16–19 16–19 16–19 15–20
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 18 17–20 17–20 17–20 16–20
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 3 3–4 3–4 2–4 2–5
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 4 3–5 2–5 2–5 2–5
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 3 2–3 2–4 2–4 2–4
Ruch Narodowy (NI) 0 2 1–3 1–3 1–3 1–4
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 2 1–3 1–3 1–3 1–3
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–3
Lewica Razem (NI) 0 1 1 1 1–2 0–2
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 2% 100%  
16 19% 98%  
17 16% 79%  
18 52% 62% Median
19 9% 11%  
20 2% 2%  
21 0% 0%  

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.5% 100%  
16 2% 99.5%  
17 36% 98%  
18 25% 62% Median
19 26% 38%  
20 11% 12%  
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 3% 100%  
3 54% 97% Median
4 41% 43%  
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 7% 100%  
3 32% 93%  
4 41% 62% Median
5 21% 21%  
6 0% 0%  

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.1% 100%  
2 36% 99.9%  
3 58% 64% Median
4 5% 5%  
5 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 11% 100%  
2 68% 89% Median
3 19% 21%  
4 1.3% 1.3%  
5 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 14% 100%  
2 50% 86% Median
3 36% 36%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100% Last Result
1 54% 99.8% Median
2 45% 46%  
3 0.7% 0.7%  
4 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100% Last Result
1 93% 98% Median
2 5% 5%  
3 0% 0%  

.Nowoczesna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 35% 100% Last Result
1 65% 65% Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 95% 100% Last Result, Median
1 5% 5%  
2 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.3% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.7% 0.7%  
2 0% 0%  

Centrum dla Polski (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centrum dla Polski (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.3% 0.3%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 4 0% 3–5 2–5 2–5 2–5
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0–1

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 7% 100%  
3 32% 93%  
4 41% 62% Median
5 21% 21%  
6 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.3% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.7% 0.7%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations