Opinion Poll by Opinia24, 8–11 July 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 29.9% 28.1–31.8% 27.6–32.3% 27.1–32.8% 26.3–33.7%
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 28.4% 26.6–30.3% 26.1–30.8% 25.7–31.3% 24.8–32.2%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 6.9% 6.0–8.0% 5.7–8.4% 5.5–8.7% 5.1–9.2%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 6.5% 5.6–7.6% 5.3–7.9% 5.1–8.2% 4.7–8.8%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 6.3% 5.4–7.4% 5.2–7.7% 5.0–8.0% 4.6–8.6%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 5.2% 4.4–6.2% 4.2–6.5% 4.0–6.8% 3.6–7.3%
Ruch Narodowy (NI) 0.0% 4.8% 4.0–5.8% 3.8–6.1% 3.6–6.3% 3.3–6.8%
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0.0% 3.2% 2.6–4.0% 2.4–4.3% 2.3–4.5% 2.0–4.9%
Lewica Razem (NI) 0.0% 2.5% 2.0–3.3% 1.8–3.5% 1.7–3.7% 1.5–4.1%
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0.0% 1.6% 1.2–2.2% 1.1–2.4% 1.0–2.6% 0.8–2.9%
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 18 16–19 16–19 16–20 16–20
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 17 15–17 14–17 14–17 13–18
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 4 3–4 3–4 3–5 3–5
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–5
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 2–5
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–4 2–4
Ruch Narodowy (NI) 0 3 2–3 2–3 1–3 1–4
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Lewica Razem (NI) 0 1 1 1 1–2 0–2
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.2% 100%  
16 11% 99.8%  
17 9% 89%  
18 70% 80% Median
19 7% 10%  
20 3% 3%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.5% 100%  
14 5% 99.5%  
15 14% 94%  
16 19% 81%  
17 60% 62% Median
18 2% 2%  
19 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.1% 100%  
3 14% 99.9%  
4 82% 86% Median
5 4% 4%  
6 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.1% 100%  
3 76% 99.9% Median
4 23% 24%  
5 1.3% 1.3%  
6 0% 0%  

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.6% 100%  
3 76% 99.4% Median
4 22% 23%  
5 1.0% 1.0%  
6 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 12% 100%  
3 83% 88% Median
4 5% 5%  
5 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 3% 100%  
2 11% 97%  
3 84% 86% Median
4 2% 2%  
5 0% 0%  

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 69% 100% Median
2 31% 31%  
3 0.2% 0.2%  
4 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.6% 100% Last Result
1 95% 99.4% Median
2 4% 4%  
3 0% 0%  

.Nowoczesna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 73% 100% Last Result, Median
1 27% 27%  
2 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.4% 0.4%  
2 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.1% 1.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Centrum dla Polski (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centrum dla Polski (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 3 0% 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–5
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0–1

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.1% 100%  
3 76% 99.9% Median
4 23% 24%  
5 1.3% 1.3%  
6 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.1% 1.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations