Opinion Poll by Research Partner for Ariadna, 19–22 July 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 31.3% 29.5–33.2% 29.0–33.8% 28.6–34.2% 27.7–35.1%
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 30.3% 28.5–32.2% 28.0–32.7% 27.6–33.2% 26.7–34.1%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 6.5% 5.6–7.6% 5.4–7.9% 5.2–8.2% 4.8–8.8%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 5.9% 5.0–6.9% 4.8–7.2% 4.6–7.5% 4.2–8.0%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 4.8% 4.1–5.8% 3.8–6.1% 3.7–6.3% 3.3–6.8%
Ruch Narodowy (NI) 0.0% 4.3% 3.6–5.3% 3.4–5.5% 3.2–5.7% 2.9–6.2%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 4.0% 3.4–4.9% 3.2–5.2% 3.0–5.4% 2.7–5.9%
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0.0% 2.9% 2.3–3.7% 2.1–3.9% 2.0–4.1% 1.8–4.5%
Bezpartyjni Samorządowcy (*) 0.0% 2.7% 2.1–3.5% 2.0–3.7% 1.9–3.9% 1.6–4.3%
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.4% 1.9–3.1% 1.8–3.4% 1.6–3.5% 1.4–3.9%
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0.0% 1.6% 1.2–2.3% 1.1–2.5% 1.0–2.6% 0.9–2.9%
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0.0% 0.7% 0.4–1.1% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.6%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.7% 0.4–1.1% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.6%
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0.0% 0.5% 0.3–0.9% 0.2–1.0% 0.2–1.1% 0.1–1.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 18 17–19 17–19 17–19 15–19
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 18 16–18 16–18 16–19 16–20
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 2–5
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 4 3–4 3–4 3–4 2–5
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 3 3–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
Ruch Narodowy (NI) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 1–3
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Bezpartyjni Samorządowcy (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1–2 1–2 0–2 0–2
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 1.1% 100%  
16 1.3% 98.9%  
17 11% 98%  
18 55% 86% Median
19 31% 31%  
20 0.3% 0.3%  
21 0% 0%  

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 16% 100%  
17 17% 84%  
18 62% 67% Median
19 3% 5%  
20 1.1% 1.4%  
21 0.2% 0.3%  
22 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.6% 100%  
3 78% 99.4% Median
4 20% 22%  
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 2% 100%  
3 35% 98%  
4 62% 62% Median
5 0.7% 0.7%  
6 0% 0%  

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 9% 100%  
3 53% 91% Median
4 37% 37%  
5 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.4% 100%  
2 87% 99.6% Median
3 12% 13%  
4 0.4% 0.4%  
5 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.6% 100%  
2 88% 99.4% Median
3 11% 11%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 54% 99.9% Median
2 46% 46%  
3 0.2% 0.2%  
4 0% 0%  

Bezpartyjni Samorządowcy (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bezpartyjni Samorządowcy (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100% Last Result
1 86% 97% Median
2 12% 12%  
3 0% 0%  

.Nowoczesna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 63% 100% Last Result, Median
1 37% 37%  
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.4% 0.4%  
2 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.4% 0.4%  
2 0% 0%  

Centrum dla Polski (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centrum dla Polski (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 4 0% 3–4 3–4 3–4 2–5
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 1 0% 1–2 1–2 0–2 0–2
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 2% 100%  
3 35% 98%  
4 62% 62% Median
5 0.7% 0.7%  
6 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100% Last Result
1 86% 97% Median
2 12% 12%  
3 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.4% 0.4%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations