Opinion Poll by United Surveys for WP.pl, 26–28 July 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 32.1% 30.2–34.0% 29.7–34.6% 29.3–35.1% 28.4–36.0%
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 30.2% 28.4–32.1% 27.9–32.6% 27.4–33.1% 26.6–34.0%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 7.7% 6.7–8.9% 6.4–9.2% 6.2–9.5% 5.8–10.1%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 6.0% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.7% 4.3–8.2%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.5% 3.5–7.1%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 4.6% 3.9–5.6% 3.6–5.9% 3.5–6.1% 3.1–6.6%
Ruch Narodowy (NI) 0.0% 3.4% 2.8–4.3% 2.6–4.5% 2.4–4.7% 2.2–5.2%
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.9% 2.3–3.7% 2.2–3.9% 2.0–4.1% 1.8–4.6%
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0.0% 2.3% 1.8–3.0% 1.6–3.2% 1.5–3.4% 1.3–3.8%
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0.0% 1.8% 1.4–2.5% 1.2–2.7% 1.1–2.8% 1.0–3.2%
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 19 18–20 17–20 17–20 16–21
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 17 15–17 15–17 15–18 14–18
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 4 4–5 3–5 3–5 3–6
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 4 3–4 3–4 3–4 2–5
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–4 2–4
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 1–4
Ruch Narodowy (NI) 0 2 1–2 1–3 1–3 1–3
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0 1 1–2 1–2 0–2 0–2
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 1.4% 100%  
17 4% 98.6%  
18 15% 95%  
19 48% 80% Median
20 30% 32%  
21 2% 2%  
22 0% 0%  

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 1.0% 100%  
15 26% 99.0%  
16 19% 73%  
17 49% 53% Median
18 4% 4%  
19 0.4% 0.4%  
20 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.1% 100%  
3 6% 99.9%  
4 60% 93% Median
5 33% 34%  
6 0.6% 0.6%  
7 0% 0%  

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.7% 100%  
3 48% 99.3%  
4 50% 51% Median
5 1.5% 1.5%  
6 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.1% 100%  
2 14% 99.9%  
3 82% 86% Median
4 4% 4%  
5 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 1.2% 100%  
2 70% 98.8% Median
3 26% 29%  
4 2% 2%  
5 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 14% 100%  
2 78% 86% Median
3 7% 7%  
4 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 87% 99.9% Median
2 13% 13%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100% Last Result
1 85% 95% Median
2 10% 10%  
3 0% 0%  

.Nowoczesna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 48% 100% Last Result
1 52% 52% Median
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.3% 0.3%  
2 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.4% 0.4%  
2 0% 0%  

Centrum dla Polski (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centrum dla Polski (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.3% 0.3%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 2 0% 2–3 2–3 2–3 1–4
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 1 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 1.2% 100%  
2 70% 98.8% Median
3 26% 29%  
4 2% 2%  
5 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 87% 99.9% Median
2 13% 13%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.4% 0.4%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations