Opinion Poll by IBRiS for Rzeczpospolita, 30–31 August 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 34.6% 32.7–36.5% 32.2–37.0% 31.8–37.5% 30.9–38.4%
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 33.0% 31.2–34.9% 30.7–35.4% 30.2–35.9% 29.4–36.8%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 6.2% 5.3–7.2% 5.1–7.5% 4.9–7.8% 4.5–8.3%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 6.1% 5.2–7.1% 5.0–7.4% 4.8–7.7% 4.4–8.2%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 5.2% 4.4–6.1% 4.2–6.4% 4.0–6.7% 3.6–7.1%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 3.9% 3.3–4.8% 3.1–5.1% 2.9–5.3% 2.6–5.7%
Ruch Narodowy (NI) 0.0% 2.9% 2.3–3.7% 2.2–3.9% 2.1–4.1% 1.8–4.5%
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.2% 1.8–3.0% 1.6–3.2% 1.5–3.3% 1.3–3.7%
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.6% 1.4–2.8% 1.3–3.0% 1.1–3.4%
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0.0% 1.8% 1.4–2.4% 1.2–2.6% 1.1–2.8% 1.0–3.1%
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.4% 0.4–1.5% 0.3–1.7%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.4% 0.4–1.5% 0.3–1.7%
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.0% 0.3–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.2–1.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 19 19 18–19 17–20 17–21
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 19 18–19 17–20 17–20 17–21
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–5
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 3 3 3–4 3–4 2–5
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 3 3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 2 2 2–3 2–3 2–3
Ruch Narodowy (NI) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1 1 0–1 0–1
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.3% 100%  
17 2% 99.7%  
18 6% 97%  
19 89% 91% Median
20 0.3% 3%  
21 2% 2%  
22 0% 0%  

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 7% 100%  
18 8% 93%  
19 79% 85% Median
20 4% 6%  
21 1.5% 2%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.2% 100%  
3 82% 99.8% Median
4 18% 18%  
5 0.5% 0.5%  
6 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 2% 100%  
3 93% 98% Median
4 4% 5%  
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 7% 100%  
3 92% 93% Median
4 0.4% 0.4%  
5 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.5% 100%  
2 90% 99.5% Median
3 10% 10%  
4 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100% Last Result
1 18% 99.7%  
2 82% 82% Median
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100% Last Result
1 97% 97% Median
2 0.3% 0.3%  
3 0% 0%  

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 77% 100% Last Result, Median
1 21% 23%  
2 2% 2%  
3 0% 0%  

.Nowoczesna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 9% 100% Last Result
1 91% 91% Median
2 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Centrum dla Polski (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centrum dla Polski (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 2 0% 2 2–3 2–3 2–3
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 1 0% 1 1 0–1 0–1
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.5% 100%  
2 90% 99.5% Median
3 10% 10%  
4 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100% Last Result
1 97% 97% Median
2 0.3% 0.3%  
3 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations